The End of La Nina and Assorted Odds ‘n EndsMay 7th, 2012 at 9:40 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
CPC says we are now in neutral ENSO conditions, and they expect that to be the case through most or all of the summer. The majority of ENSO models project neutral conditions for the remainder of the year, but a number of what are called ‘dynamical’ models, like the CFS, favor a transition to el nino. CPC’s bottom line: odds are even for either neutral ENSO or el nino by fall and winter. In the near term, the MJO remains “incoherent”, having no measurable effect on tropical convection or our weather, although there are some hints that it may go back to active in about 2 weeks. No signs of any severe weather threat anywhere near us this week into early next week, although some convection will occur tonight/Monday night in spots. Ensemble means at the 500 mb level/surface suggest our next best chance for a warmer than average pattern may have to wait until around May 20-22, when heights are progged to begin to rise. In the meantime, there’ll be weak troughing in the east, with a transition to more zonal conditions a little more likely next week.