The End of La Nina and Assorted Odds ‘n Ends

May 7th, 2012 at 9:40 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

CPC says we are now in neutral ENSO conditions, and they expect that to be the case through most or all of the summer. The majority of ENSO models project neutral conditions for the remainder of the year, but a number of what are called ‘dynamical’ models, like the CFS, favor a transition to el nino. CPC’s bottom line: odds are even for either neutral ENSO or el nino by fall and winter. In the near term, the MJO remains “incoherent”, having no measurable effect on tropical convection or our weather, although there are some hints that it may go back to active in about 2 weeks. No signs of any severe weather threat anywhere near us this week into early next week, although some convection will occur tonight/Monday night in spots. Ensemble means at the 500 mb level/surface suggest our next best chance for a warmer than average pattern may have to wait until around May 20-22, when heights are progged to begin to rise. In the meantime, there’ll be weak troughing in the east, with a transition to more zonal conditions a little more likely next week.

276 Responses to “The End of La Nina and Assorted Odds ‘n Ends”

  1. lois says:

    S’cuse me, but…..beautiful daughters drove me all over the area today, shopping. So, maybe I wasn’t aware, nevertheless, glad it’s over. You weather watchers can love your lightening and thunder, I don’t.
    Those straight winds were really something.

  2. Don Paul says:

    The 00z NAM, for what it’s worth, has best convergence on the Niag Frontier for Friday, with pretty decent qpf.

  3. Barry says:

    Do you even live in Allegheny county lois? Curious ’cause your weather reports were for other counties and not Alleg. county. How much rain fell in Alleg. county?

  4. lois says:

    dear Barry……I live in Allegany (note spelling) Cty, which is the 3rd cty from the W.boundary of SrnNYState. Husband said Alleg.Cty.escaped the harshness of the storm. We usually escape severe weather (fortunately) but yesterday, in Catt.Cty, we had a very exciting shopping trip, as chain lightening flashed,winds rocked the car, etc. and rains beat down as hard as I’ve ever seen it rain. Pictured myself with daughters, being lifted up off the ground by huge, dark cloud (as in Wizard of Oz) and landing in the land of Oz.
    Beautiful, dry, sunny weather here at 68 degrees. Have a nice day. :)

  5. lois says:

    And also yesterday, Son-i-l got rained off by mothball sized hail at his construction site in Painted Post. (Is that Stueben Cty?) Us hillbillys get around.

  6. junior johnson in friendship says:

    Geeze Lois, I experienced some pretty nasty stuff around my place for a while. Including lightning (note spelling)……

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