The Snow Exits, but Not the Chill…Not Just YetApril 24th, 2012 at 9:33 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
As I post this, the last of the rain and snow showers are weakening over the southern tier. There’ll be a brief warming trend on Thursday, but it comes ahead of another sharp cold front, behind which lies more below average temperatures for several days. A brisk breeze should protect us from frost on a colder Thursday night, but Friday and Saturday nights could bring a new frost threat–even a freeze in some valleys–depending on cloud cover. Latest indications seem to be pointing to a dry Saturday, with an area of low pressure staying far enough to the south so that even the southern part of the viewing area would escape showers. That Saturday dryness, on a Tuesday night, is far from carved in stone, however. Another large cutoff low will be developing toward the end of the weekend, but this one will be far to our NE. Its circulation is likely to keep cool temperatures with us into Monday. Models and ensembles are pointing in the direction of a zonal flow which should bring a mean of average to eventually somewhat above average temperatures after next Tuesday. The GFS may be a day too fast to warm us up so significantly on Tuesday, as is often the case. The Euro has us quite chilly into early next week, before that zonal flow finally begins to take hold. As always, I remind you that ensemble means cannot discern embedded short waves very well as we get further out in time.