The Snow Exits, but Not the Chill…Not Just Yet

April 24th, 2012 at 9:33 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As I post this, the last of the rain and snow showers are weakening over the southern tier. There’ll be a brief warming trend on Thursday, but it comes ahead of another sharp cold front, behind which lies more below average temperatures for several days. A brisk breeze should protect us from frost on a colder Thursday night, but Friday and Saturday nights could bring a new frost threat–even a freeze in some valleys–depending on cloud cover. Latest indications seem to be pointing to a dry Saturday, with an area of low pressure staying far enough to the south so that even the southern part of the viewing area would escape showers. That Saturday dryness, on a Tuesday night, is far from carved in stone, however.  Another large cutoff low will be developing toward the end of the weekend, but this one will be far to our NE. Its circulation is likely to keep cool temperatures with us into Monday. Models and ensembles are pointing in the direction of a zonal flow which should bring a mean of average to eventually somewhat above average temperatures after next Tuesday. The GFS may be a day too fast to warm us up so significantly on Tuesday, as is often the case. The Euro has us quite chilly into early next week, before that zonal flow finally begins to take hold. As always, I remind you that ensemble means cannot discern embedded short waves very well as we get further out in time.

198 Responses to “The Snow Exits, but Not the Chill…Not Just Yet”

  1. THINKSNOW12 says:

    Seems like microcast or vivid cast may be out to lunch or is a visionary regarding the run Mike showed at 10:18. The heaviest rain depicted on that run was southern tier, yet even at the latest text forecast from NWS it stated model had been trending north of the area for the heaviest rain fall. Guess time will tell

  2. Dave from Roc says:

    Lake Erie has hit 50 today, for the first time this year. That’s 7 degrees above normal for this date:

    http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/laketemps/laketemps.php

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    And now that we’re a full week into May, it looks like it’s official…

    http://goldensnowball.com/rochester-dethrones-syracuse-as-the-king-of-the-snow-mountain/

  4. Dave from Roc says:

    Okay, one more morning ‘tidbit’. Buffalo was noted in the spaceweather.com website this morning. But, more interesting than that, sunspot 1476, which spaceweather.com describes as “one of the largest sunspot groups in years” has rotated toward the earth facing side of the sun. It could become a trouble maker for earth if it holds together when it eventually rotates to a position that would make its eruptions earth directed. As of today, there is at least a small potential for 1476 to produce powerful X-flares. Here’s the link:

    http://spaceweather.com/

  5. SteveInTonawanda says:

    TS, in reference to your 10:54pm post, current radar looks like last nights micro-cast was right on with keeping the major stuff in the southern tier.

  6. Don Paul says:

    Should be some heavier precip advecting northward by evening.

  7. Dave from Roc says:

    Don – I notice a pretty nasty looking cell with a Severe t-storm Warning on it in far northeastern OH, heading toward Erie, PA. Is there any chance of convection like that trying to fire up in WNY tonight, or do you expect we’ll remain somewhat more stable at this latitude?

  8. Don Paul says:

    I don’t see anything that strong for the northern counties. Starting to see a little more evidence of insentropic ascent over Ontario and the northern counties, where a little stratiform rain may be developing. In my nightly email from SWPC/NOAA Space Weather Prediction Ctr, they’re not seeing anything as strong as Spaceweather.com. They’re calling for quiet to moderate solar activity the next 3 days. I’ve often seen some glaring inconsistencies between Spaceweather.com and SWPC’s analyses. Not being a specialist in that field, I can only say I give a slight edge to SWPC because they’re engaged in pure science.

Leave a Reply