Elements coming together for significant snow storm.

April 21st, 2012 at 9:58 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As of Saturday afternoon the National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for all of Western New York with varying snowfall amounts for Sunday evening until Monday Evening.  The NWS is comparing this storm to the one from April 2005.

Here is a small piece from their post earlier.

“IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)…NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS…BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM NORMAL…THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR EVEN HISTORIC STATURE. THAT BEING SAID…THESE PARAMETERS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE PERFECT MIX AND THAT IS STILL FAR FROM A CERTAINTY.”

The closer we get the more the models have been staying the same.  After the graphics upgrade we have a new model that allows for 1km resolution and this is what it spit out.

This is close to the NWS totals and what the NAM was showing this morning.  Later this afternoon the latest run of the NAM moved the heaviest amounts further west.

There is going to be some wiggle in the models but the general story stays the same.  This could very well be a memorable event.

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_namer_cloud.html

The GFS is showing the low deepening to 983 mb low by early morning Tuesday.  Significant to say the least.

By Sunday night the storm will start to bring in rain showers and mixed precipitation.  By Monday morning snow accumulations will be possible especially in the high terrain.  The snow showers will be heavy and wet.  With the warm spring we have already seen foliage and just a few inches of this snow can bring down tree limbs.  Widespread power outages are expected as the snow continues potentially through Tuesday morning.  As shown in the models over a foot of snow is possible in the southern tier and areas east of the city.  Some of the snowfall totals near the lakes may be less because of melting and the potential for slightly warmer temperatures causing mixed precip instead of snow.

Stay with the 4 Warn Weather Meteorologists as we update the forecast.

271 Responses to “Elements coming together for significant snow storm.”

  1. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

Leave a Reply