Springtime Returns, but with ComplicationsApril 11th, 2012 at 10:34 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
After a fairly typical April cool spell (notable only because of March’s extraordinary warmth), more springlike conditions will return, beginning on a dry and beautiful Friday. But the above average temperatures for the weekend will be dampened by–what else–growing dampness. A series of disturbances moving over the Great Lakes will gradually increase the chances for scattered showers & a few tshowers on Saturday (at the time of this posting, the afternoon hours appear to hold a higher chance), with more occasional rounds of showers & tstorms on Sunday. There is no clearcut sign of a severe weather threat for Sunday, but we’ll have to keep an eye on jet structure and placement at that time and–possibly–again by Tuesday.
There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty about the placement of a frontal boundary in the Mon-Tue period, with a 20-25 degree temperature differential on either side of the front. As the NWS has noted, there is considerable “bust” potential in our temperature forecast at that time. With the proximity of this front and string of disturbances, our total rainfall will be potentially significant in spots.
In the meantime, as we finish out this workweek, there will be a growing risk of Severe Tstorm/Tornadic Supercells in the southern and central plains, probably edging up toward Iowa during the weekend.