March and April 2012? Nothing in common, so far.April 3rd, 2012 at 8:48 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
After the warmest March–by far–in Buffalo record keeping history, April is turning out to be another story. With the enormous 13.4 degree positive mean temperature anomaly, we’re all familiar by now with the premature budding and flowering of many plants. The vulnerability of those buds and flowers continues this week, with the frost already having occurred on Monday night, and the likely additional frost to come later in the week. As of this posting, signs are pointing to another sharp cooldown early next week. There is some evidence that the shifting phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is the main driving force behind the cooler pattern which will dominate the east much (not all) of the time into next week. The more commonly examined indices, the AO, PNA & NAO are not headed into phases which would support the eastern trough. Even today’s ensemble means are supporting some fairly sharp cooling in the first half of next week. These ensembles are generally not as amplified as the operational models, so when they show really digging troughs, meteorologists sit up and take notice.
There will be some decent warming this Easter Holiday weekend and possibly again by next weekend. But the overall pattern does favor a negative temperature anomaly over the next couple of weeks–in the mean.