March and April 2012? Nothing in common, so far.

April 3rd, 2012 at 8:48 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After the warmest March–by far–in Buffalo record keeping history, April is turning out to be another story. With the enormous 13.4 degree positive mean temperature anomaly, we’re all familiar by now with the premature budding and flowering of many plants. The vulnerability of those buds and flowers continues this week, with the frost already having occurred on Monday night, and the likely additional frost to come later in the week. As of this posting, signs are pointing to another sharp cooldown early next week. There is some evidence that the shifting phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is the main driving force behind the cooler pattern which will dominate the east much (not all) of the time into next week. TheĀ  more commonly examined indices, the AO, PNA & NAO are not headed into phases which would support the eastern trough. Even today’s ensemble means are supporting some fairly sharp cooling in the first half of next week. These ensembles are generally not as amplified as the operational models, so when they show really digging troughs, meteorologists sit up and take notice.

There will be some decent warming this Easter Holiday weekend and possibly again by next weekend. But the overall pattern does favor a negative temperature anomaly over the next couple of weeks–in the mean.

127 Responses to “March and April 2012? Nothing in common, so far.”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    For tonight, it looks like a much larger part of the east will face a freeze threat. Freeze Warnings are up all the way to Nashville, TN, where the foliage is way ahead of our region.

  2. Don Paul says:

    For the time being, Charley is not welcome on this blog and those types of posts will not be allowed.

  3. Don Paul says:

    Forgot to remind you: Magnificent NOVA production coming on right now/9pm: “Deadliest Tornadoes”, focusing on the monsters in AL last April, focusing on a storm which killed 340 people.

  4. mikej says:

    Earlier driving home from Washington,DC came up the 219 and happened to drive thru a winter mess worse than anything I could remember from this past season…5 minutes north of Ellicotville about 5pm it was snow, sleeting, graupel ..maybe 2 inches of jaw was dropped! Coming from 70s in Myrtle Beach and DC it was a rude welcome back!!

  5. THINKSNOW12 says:

    I watched the 2010 version today with my son and daughter. While mom and little bum took a nap. A truly eye opening experience to watch as storm chasers follow these monsters and arrive just after towns are obliterated. Sad and educational all in one.

  6. Don Paul says:

    This one is at another level, since it focuses on an outbreak last April which was the worst since 1925, with Howie Bluestein of the U of Oklahoma, Greg Carbin of SPC, and a host of other experts. It may be the best single one hour tornado special ever produced from both an educational and graphical angle. Fortunately, it’s on again tom’w night at 11:30.

    We were fortunate at our AMS conference last June that when we were at NSSL, SPC, and the U of Ok (all in same complex), it was a quiet day so that senior forecaster Greg Carbin had the time to chat with us. The previous May, an F-4 had touched down just 50-100 yds away from this National Weather Center on the University campus in Norman.

  7. Don Paul says:


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