Freezing Start, a Brief Warmup, then More Seasonably Cool Weather.

March 26th, 2012 at 10:35 am by under 4 Warn Weather

The survival of many prematurely blossoming plants’ and trees’ blossoms will be in jeopardy Monday night. Clear skies, dry air, and a cold airmass will combine to produce Hard Freeze conditions in the interior and lighter Freeze conditions closer to the lake. The evening may begin with a brisk breeze, but that wind will gradually diminish. Temperatures will recover somewhat on a Sunny Tuesday, and move well above average on Wednesday ahead of another cooldown for Thur-Fri. That cool airmass does not look as potent as the current ridge of Canadian high pressure, but some frost could reoccur those nights in the interior. Night time lows will be returning to the 30s. Tonight’s (Monday) lows will range from the teens in sheltered valleys to the mid 20s in the eastern suburbs to the upper 20s close to the lakeshores. The overall pattern in the Day 6 and beyond time range looks somewhat unstable, with ups and downs in the temperatures, rather than persistent warmth or chill. There is no sign of a return to the extraordinary warmth experienced last week. 3 consecutive 80 degree days in March, as many of you have figured out, is something we’re statistically unlikely to see again–even with global warming–for many years.

The installation of the Dual Polarization upgrade to the NWS Doppler radar is now underway, taking the radar out of action for this week. The exact power-up date is undetermined, but Judy Levan says these installations have been going very smoothly and somewhat faster than expected at other NWS offices as of late. Fortunately, major convection is unlikely this week, so this is going to turn out to be an opportune time for the work to be done. Hopefully, our luck will hold until the radar is back up and running.

249 Responses to “Freezing Start, a Brief Warmup, then More Seasonably Cool Weather.”

  1. flowergirl says:

    Snow has melted here as well. Sun is trying to peek through the clouds. Birds and wildlife have been gorging at my feeders all day.

  2. Don Paul says:

    No, C. We had snow on the cars and parking lot in N Buffalo last night when I left. .6″ at KBUF.

  3. marinecore3008 says:

    Ironically it looks like the first non-transitory trough may be setting up next week, after a winter where a trough could rarely be established across northeast. I never thought I would see this happen this spring.

  4. C from P says:

    Per the AFD, that trough shouldn’t be around long, and temps are forecasted to be in the 50s while the trough is in place. By next weekend, a ridge could bring warmer weather, but it’s 7 days out…

    TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD…THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
    DEPART…ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SOME
    MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IN TIME FOR SATURDAY…WITH WIDESPREAD
    READINGS IN THE 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE GFS AND ECMWF
    SOLUTIONS VERIFY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT…WILL AIM A BIT
    MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND INDICATE TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE MID
    AND UPPER 50S.

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    Woke up to no snow on the ground here in ROC. But, there was a solid snow cover along the thruway, especially from Leroy to Pembroke this morning. On my way back from Buffalo, there was still some spotty snow cover along the thruway around Batavia as of 3PM. Roofs and vehicles still had some snow on them in central Genesee county this afternoon.

  6. Dave from Roc says:

    And, a random observation of the day…I noticed that the greenery is slightly further along closer to the Genesee Valley. Shrubs that have begun to leaf out are a bit darker green to the east, with a larger number of larger trees that are beginning to leaf out compared to the immediate Buffalo area.

  7. lois says:

    Dave, I believe I saw an area where you live. Recognized it from some pics you’ve submitted. Rochester is a beautiful city. The forsythia is certainly beautiful this year.
    Funny, we escaped snow down here. Close, but didn’t quite make it. It looks as tho the MJO and anomalies are still at odds and maybe we can look forward to relatively mild temps for a week or more.

  8. Jason says:

    Heavy graupel up here in the falls. Lightning and thunder too.

  9. C from P says:

    Had a little wet snow (huge snow flakes) mixing in late this morning, but it’s been all rain here since 11am. Just over 1/4″ in the gauge since early this morning.

  10. Don Paul says:

    Well, just completed the first module on the NWS Dual-Pol training course for non-NWS meteorologists and somehow aced the exam. Many hours to go, but at least I’m off to a good start. I’ve taken 2 short courses on dual-pol at AMS conferences, including one last June in Norman, but you just can’t retain this highly complex jazz without repeated use. Intimidating.

    Here is the NWS course for interested non-meteorologists, for the intellectually adventurous among you:

    http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/#nonmets

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