Freezing Start, a Brief Warmup, then More Seasonably Cool Weather.

March 26th, 2012 at 10:35 am by under 4 Warn Weather

The survival of many prematurely blossoming plants’ and trees’ blossoms will be in jeopardy Monday night. Clear skies, dry air, and a cold airmass will combine to produce Hard Freeze conditions in the interior and lighter Freeze conditions closer to the lake. The evening may begin with a brisk breeze, but that wind will gradually diminish. Temperatures will recover somewhat on a Sunny Tuesday, and move well above average on Wednesday ahead of another cooldown for Thur-Fri. That cool airmass does not look as potent as the current ridge of Canadian high pressure, but some frost could reoccur those nights in the interior. Night time lows will be returning to the 30s. Tonight’s (Monday) lows will range from the teens in sheltered valleys to the mid 20s in the eastern suburbs to the upper 20s close to the lakeshores. The overall pattern in the Day 6 and beyond time range looks somewhat unstable, with ups and downs in the temperatures, rather than persistent warmth or chill. There is no sign of a return to the extraordinary warmth experienced last week. 3 consecutive 80 degree days in March, as many of you have figured out, is something we’re statistically unlikely to see again–even with global warming–for many years.

The installation of the Dual Polarization upgrade to the NWS Doppler radar is now underway, taking the radar out of action for this week. The exact power-up date is undetermined, but Judy Levan says these installations have been going very smoothly and somewhat faster than expected at other NWS offices as of late. Fortunately, major convection is unlikely this week, so this is going to turn out to be an opportune time for the work to be done. Hopefully, our luck will hold until the radar is back up and running.

249 Responses to “Freezing Start, a Brief Warmup, then More Seasonably Cool Weather.”

  1. C from P says:

    Thought some of you might like this…a Solar “Tornado” caught by NASA on 9/25/2011…neat stuff.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/03/120329-sun-solar-tornadoes-biggest-nasa-sdo-space-science/

  2. marinecore3008 says:

    Hints seem to point toward a cooler period of weather next week. The 12z GFS and Euro have a rather deep trough in the east for a while. This is something we did not see in winter. April can have surprises.

  3. Thinksnow12 says:

    I just came across this on the climate section of the 3pm text from the NWS…..FOR BOTH CITIES MARCH FINISHED WARMER THAN THE NORMAL APRIL. THE
    47.4 DEGREES AVERAGE MARCH 2012 TEMPERATURE IN BUFFALO WAS 1.5
    DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL APRIL VALUE. FOR ROCHESTER THE 47.3
    DEGREES AVERAGE MARCH 2012 TEMPERATURE WAS 1.0 DEGREES WARMER THAN
    THE NORMAL APRIL VALUE.

    Thats insane. And it would be just appropos to have April have March’s values.

  4. Dave from Roc says:

    With March averaging 47.4, I’d be interested to know what U.S city or cities have that temperature as a climatological average for March. My first guess would be some cities within the Gulf Coast States. I’ll have to look into that when I get some more time.

  5. Don Paul says:

    Been working in training much of the day. However, from what I can see in the NCEP 500 mb Ensemble Mean and the MREF, the GFS is much colder next week than its ensemble–not a good match. The Euro is also not nearly as cold later next week as it had been (00z run).

  6. Thinksnow12 says:

    Im still concerned the “S” word will be used for some point next week

  7. C from P says:

    The CPC is showing somewhat weak below normal temp. anomalies in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. That does not equate to snow, especially considering the CPC outlooks show rather dry conditions for an extended time frame. We’ll likely be dealing with lows at or near freezing and highs in the upper 40s to near 50°F while the trough is in place. Then there’s that ridge in the West that will likely push East at some point beyond the 8-14 day mark. I don’t see any signs of storminess. Kinda hard to get snow (or any precip. for that matter) when the pattern is rather tranquil, even though it may be slightly cooler than avg. The below normal temp anomalies are FAR, far weaker than what we saw in March for above avg. temp anomalies.

    At least I’ll get to look forward to leaving the cool’ish temps behind when I head for SW FL in just over a week. Temps are to slated to be normal there in the 8-14 day outlook (avg. temps in SW FL for mid April are mid 80s).

  8. Don Paul says:

    I’m certainly not buying the operational GFS solution for next week, but it does show some snow in the eastern Lakes in the 12z run. Again, it’s not in good agreement with the ensemble means or most ensemble members.

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