The Wearin’ of the Green Is Coming Early This Year…for NatureMarch 12th, 2012 at 2:45 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
After this spectacularly unusual winter, we are now into a spectacularly early growing season, as most of you have noticed. While that could still prove to be worrisome later in the spring should a sudden pattern shift develop, for now it’s bloomin’ good news. The ensemble means are very much in agreement that unseasonable warmth (with only minor variations) will persist through the better part of next week. At that time, the pumped up eastern ridge should begin to flatten, but in the ensembles we’d still be in a zonal/Pacific flow late in the month. However, we’ve seen how ensemble means can break down when embedded short waves amplify. I’m sure fruit growers are going to be concerned seeing their blossoms open so early as they will this year, leaving them very vulnerable to frost and freeze conditions should they come along.
All that said, given the limitations in resolution and timing for ensemble means, there are no visible signs over the next 16 days of such an occurrence, so all we can do is enjoy the early spring. We’ve already hit 68 today/Monday the 12th and Thursday should again bring us close to that range–with 70 not out of the question. The eastern ridge actually gets more amplified by Sun-Wed or Thur next week, making some 70s seem quite likely as of today’s guidance. We may get some garden variety thundershowers toward dawn tom’w and again late in the week. Well above average temperatures are highly likely for Sunday, Parade Day, with mild temps preceding on Saturday. Dry conditions are less of a sure thing, with weak disturbances possibly bringing a few showers. As for any tshowers this week, there are no signs today of any potent setup for severe weather in WNY leading to violent tstorms.