The Wearin’ of the Green Is Coming Early This Year…for Nature

March 12th, 2012 at 2:45 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After this spectacularly unusual winter, we are now into a spectacularly early growing season, as most of you have noticed.  While that could still prove to be worrisome later in the spring should a sudden pattern shift develop, for now it’s bloomin’ good news. The ensemble means are very much in agreement that unseasonable warmth (with only minor variations) will persist through the better part of next week. At that time, the pumped up eastern ridge should begin to flatten, but in the ensembles we’d still be in a zonal/Pacific flow late in the month. However, we’ve seen how ensemble means can break down when embedded short waves amplify. I’m sure fruit growers are going to be concerned seeing their blossoms open so early as they will this year, leaving them very vulnerable to frost and freeze conditions should they come along.

All that said, given the limitations in resolution and timing for ensemble means, there are no visible signs over the next 16 days of such an occurrence, so all we can do is enjoy the early spring. We’ve already hit 68 today/Monday the 12th and Thursday should again bring us close to that range–with 70 not out of the question. The eastern ridge actually gets more amplified by Sun-Wed or Thur next week, making some 70s seem quite likely as of today’s guidance. We may get some garden variety thundershowers toward dawn tom’w and again late in the week. Well above average temperatures are highly likely for Sunday, Parade Day, with mild temps preceding on Saturday. Dry conditions are less of a sure thing, with weak disturbances possibly bringing a few showers. As for any tshowers this week, there are no signs today of any potent setup for severe weather in WNY leading to violent tstorms.

144 Responses to “The Wearin’ of the Green Is Coming Early This Year…for Nature”

  1. flowergirl says:

    Storm windows are officially off of the house! Houseplants are outside sunning, waiting for the rain. A bit humid, and I like it! 75.6 degrees currently.

  2. Alan says:

    Bruce has been pretty quiet on here lately (probably out enjoying all the great weather), but I must say I think he’s had it right all along that almost everyone much prefers this weather over winter/snow. It’s incredible to be having this kind of weather now, and the unofficial/Buffalo start of summer still is 2.5 months away. Time to get out and enjoy…and bunches more still to come.

  3. Devin in Cleve Hill says:

    75.5 degrees here on my thermometer.

  4. C from P says:

    Looks like we had another record-breaking day today. I’m at 74.3°F at the moment, but also topped off slightly above 75°F earlier this afternoon.

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    77F at KROC at 4PM. That would tie the record high if it doesn’t exceed 77 for the day. Thanks to a stronger flow off the land, the lake Ontario breeze has remained MUCH closer to the lakeshore compared to yesterday when it made it many miles inland.

  6. Dave from Roc says:

    It’s official. Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown ALL broke their record highs today.

    Buffalo hit 75
    Rochester hit 78
    Watertown hit 74

    Just had a heavy thunder shower cross my area. Now it feels quite humid, as the dewpoint us up near 60F. What an unbelievable pattern.

  7. Sabrefan173 says:

    How likely is there for rain tomarrow Because I got plans tomarrow at like 3 tomarrow downtown?

  8. C from P says:

    I bet every temperature record this week (some from as far back as the early 1900s) will likely be broken. Most record temps are upper 60s or low 70s. Forecasted highs are in the mid to upper 70s most of the week (until Friday). No doubt this will be a historic week for high temperature records. We “cool off” into the 60s by the weekend (if the NWS point ‘n click holds true).

  9. Sled Hill says:

    Wow Bruce! That is totally shocking. Good work.

  10. SteveInTonawanda says:

    Bruce, your unscientific survey proves nothing, of course the general populace would respond that way in late March, ask the same question in mid-December however and you will see much different results.
    At the end of winter especially here in WNY, it’s an almost universal longing for the warmth of summer to return, especially if it had been a particularly long, harsh winter (which in this case it has not).

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