The Winter That Hasn’t Been Still Isn’t….

February 17th, 2012 at 10:40 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Still no signs whatsover of a fundamental pattern change across North America which would allow any lengthy periods of wintrier weather to develop. With a waning la nina and a continuing active phase of an oscillating pattern far, far to the west of our continent (the Madden-Julian Oscillation), conditions will remain favorable for a westerly flow from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This flow will buckle from time to time, allowing brief arctic intrusions and active storm systems to pass near the Great Lakes. But longer-lasting tie-ins in the northern branch of the jetstream with arctic air are unlikely to develop over the next couple of weeks. In addition, the absence of snow cover over much of North America at the mid-latitudes doesn’t allow for airmasses to become as cold as they ordinarily would in mid-winter, and even at high latitudes the temperatures are above average over North America.

While March is frequently an active, stormy month due to the battle between springlike subtropical air from the Gulf and arctic air from the north, the battlefield looks a little less fertile than usual as we move through the 2nd half of February. By no means is Spring at our doorstep, and there will still be some wintry outbreaks, but the chances for a real “flip-flop” to a truly wintry pattern are growing slimmer–as many of you have already figured out.

385 Responses to “The Winter That Hasn’t Been Still Isn’t….”

  1. Juju the cat says:

    off topic for a second, I gues gragnani & kas$ian have been dealt to vancouver for a center and a defenseman

  2. Juju the cat says:

    nevermind haha it also mentions that in the gaustad story.

  3. Juju the cat says:

    Theresa no problem. It looks like a couple of things to keep the forecast kind of interesting this week. Although I’m not expecting anything major with either the freezing rain possibility for wednesday or lake effect later this weekend.

  4. Theresa says:

    Yeah, Juju, I thought so too. I love weather events, and just having the possibility of a couple this week will make things fun to watch :)

  5. Love the Bills in Fort Erie says:

    thanks for the updates everyone – I will keep checking on to see if there are any updates

  6. WiNdY says:

    Per BUF NWS SWS: “STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED…”. Oops. At any rate, this marks the 11th day of >45 MPH gusts in the 58 days of this calendar year. If a 50 MPH gust is indeed recorded at BUF, it would be the 6th of the calendar year.

  7. Thinksnow12 says:

    I have a co-worker whose good friend is a scout with the Sabres (will not mention which type of scout will give it away) feels we robbed Vancouver in that trade.

  8. C from P says:

    CPC anomalies for temps largely unchanged from the automated forecasts given yesterday. Still showing ridging in the East and troughing in the West, keeping the mean temps moderately above avg. Both outlooks have 4 out of 5 confidence levels…

  9. Dave from Roc says:

    In the more near term, it’s interesting that the 12z Euro has 850 mb temps surging to about +8C around Saturday morning. And the latest 18z GFS has 850 mb temps at around +9C late Friday / early Saturday. It’s way out there, so it could change, but IF that were to verify, I wonder if we could be looking at a brief window of some of the warmest air we’ve had in quite a long time. Either way, though, it looks like we might not be able to enjoy it with the winds and possible rain going along with the warmth. But I have a feeling forecasters will slowly raise their forecasted highs for Friday and / or Saturday if the models keep showing temps that warm.

  10. Don Paul says:

    Oddly enough, CPC is again going for Heavy Lake Effect Snow in our region on Saturday, along with High Winds as dual hazards. I still much analysis to do, but I’m not seeing temperatures cold enough for heavy LES–similar to that odd call around 10 days ago. The winds, however, are another matter. More on a new thread a little later.

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