The Winter That Hasn’t Been Still Isn’t….

February 17th, 2012 at 10:40 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Still no signs whatsover of a fundamental pattern change across North America which would allow any lengthy periods of wintrier weather to develop. With a waning la nina and a continuing active phase of an oscillating pattern far, far to the west of our continent (the Madden-Julian Oscillation), conditions will remain favorable for a westerly flow from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This flow will buckle from time to time, allowing brief arctic intrusions and active storm systems to pass near the Great Lakes. But longer-lasting tie-ins in the northern branch of the jetstream with arctic air are unlikely to develop over the next couple of weeks. In addition, the absence of snow cover over much of North America at the mid-latitudes doesn’t allow for airmasses to become as cold as they ordinarily would in mid-winter, and even at high latitudes the temperatures are above average over North America.

While March is frequently an active, stormy month due to the battle between springlike subtropical air from the Gulf and arctic air from the north, the battlefield looks a little less fertile than usual as we move through the 2nd half of February. By no means is Spring at our doorstep, and there will still be some wintry outbreaks, but the chances for a real “flip-flop” to a truly wintry pattern are growing slimmer–as many of you have already figured out.

385 Responses to “The Winter That Hasn’t Been Still Isn’t….”

  1. Kevin says:

    Dave, isn’t that always the case? Whenever it is warm, it gets negated by the winds! I can’t wait to go for a run on a 50 degree non-windy day. It’s been an easy winter, but I guess I am tired of 30′s or low 40′s with wind. The GFS (in its wacky timerange (out to next week) has 850 temps. soaring as well. If only that were to verify.

  2. marinecore3008 says:

    Ice boom is coming out.

  3. bethboyle says:

    That biting wind canceled out the effect of the bright sun for me I stayed indoors much of the day. Stedman is on a hill and the winds really slam into us.

  4. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP

  5. Juju the cat says:

    thinksnow really interesting. yeah cody hodgson has 16 or 17 goals and 17 a$sists, pretty good for a rookie season so far. I don’t know anything about the guys we picked up but it seemed to me like we made out.

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