A Wintrier Finish to the Week, but with Some Uncertainties

February 6th, 2012 at 5:36 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

The week begins with a cold front dropping down from Ontario, with seasonably chilly air behind, and only limited moisture to make any snow showers. The uncertainty develops during the weekend. A sharply colder airmass will drop into the region during Friday and into the weekend, again with limited moisture but with a somewhat better chance of snow showers on Friday. The primary uncertainty develops with the longevity and severity of a polar vortex dropping to our NE during the weekend. As of this posting, an unstable European model is bringing in a surge of true Arctic air arriving on Sunday into Monday. This model would also develop a significant Lake Effect Snow potential, bring an area of low pressure to our north in a favorable position to provide a period of an arctic SW flow over the record warm Lake Erie waters, prior to the winds veering to NWly by Monday.

Because this is a sudden flip-flop in the Euro, it should be taken with an entire salt mine as of Monday evening. But if this trend begins to show up in the GFS and Euro, and has that all-important support in ensemble members, we’ll have something to talk about.

455 Responses to “A Wintrier Finish to the Week, but with Some Uncertainties”

  1. C from P says:

    Dave – I had a brief burst of moderate snow here about an hour ago, but it didn’t leave anything measurable behind. Just wet the surfaces and went away. It looks like you might have a couple of more “bursts” of snow heading your way before nightfall. I think you’ll have a couple inches on the ground when all is said and done.

  2. Honey Badger says:

    April Fool’s Day of ’97 dumped a doozey of a winter storm on the Northeast.

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Yep, getting another burst right now. Heavy snow with huge flake size.

  4. Don Paul says:

    Apparently, THIS Honey Badger DOES care (and I cleaned that up!)….

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