A Gusty Start, but a Less Eventful Week OverallJanuary 23rd, 2012 at 2:27 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
This week begins with a Wind Advisory for much of WNY, and a short-term concern about some late afternoon low-topped convection ahead of a Pacific cold front (both the wind and thunder potential were pointed out late last week here and on the air). The chilly, very gusty winds tonight will slowly give way to seasonably conditions Tuesday, though it will still be windy. Areas of low pressure currently appear slated to pass to far to the north and too far to the SE to bring us much of an impact by Thursday, with temperatures probably too warm for anything but a mix in the first place. A shot of seasonably cold, blustery weather will be setting up by later Saturday into Sunday. There are no signs of truly significant snow coming this week.
The overall pattern is still showing no signs of a ‘fundamental’ change, with no high latitude blocking evident in ensemble output to alter that view. Last week, it appeared that next week would be colder (though not extremely cold), and this morning’s output looks even a bit less impressive than that. At times, it will be cold enough for snow if the right short waves come along–more or less seasonable. But there will also be a few milder than average days as well next week. The NCEP 500 mb Ensemble Mean suggests seasonably cold conditions will prevail in the mean, in the extended range, with a bit of a western ridge and an eastern trough.