A Storm, or THE Storm?
December 7th, 2009 at 2:04 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The truth will likely lie in between. There is nearly no doubt that a developing storm will become a powerful winter storm for the central plains, parts of the midwest, and the Great Lakes. But beyond the high synoptic probability are quite a number of both synoptic and mesoscale uncertainties. Chief among them are the duration of snow versus a wintry mix overnight Tuesday, the strength of the winds near the sfc by Wed evening and Thur AM, and the strength and placement of lake effect snow. As mentioned in the previous thread, there are fortunately a few elements which may work against a classic destructive High Wind event (lower inversion lyr may limit mixing to sfc of max winds). However, I still feel we will endure a period of High Winds Wed night, with sustained winds of 30-40 and frequent gusts of over 50mph, and maybe some to 60. (The most classic events often include gusts of over 70). The very strong boundary lyr winds are bound to produce some speed shear which can disrupt lake bands and spray poorly organized lake snow well inland. There will be some synoptic snow as well, and the placement of what’s called a deformation zone is still somewhat uncertain. Nearly all models and ensemble members take the storm toward Lk Huron or nearby, and there will be SWly bndry lyr winds into early Thursday, before veering to Wly develops and takes the heaviest lk snow (well organized or not) into ski country during the day. So, if the bands survive the High Winds and strong winds to follow, the metro area will get a shot before the veering occurs. In any case, there should be enough snow for Blowing Snow to produce some Whiteout conditions on Thursday.
And the following verifies what I’d posted earlier today about the positioning of the eastern long wave trough and precipitation:
AS MOST PLACES IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, WHERE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAY CAUSE NEAR
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
That’s from the CPC, in the 6-10 Day Discussion.
27″…now that is some snow! Lakewood, I just noticed the same thing, looks like however you got a good shot. Seems like everyone but Chris got to join in…we’ll see if somehow we can order up a nice ssw wind for Chris and give him his share next weekend!
I feel bad about mentioning the possibility of people spending the night on the thruway earlier in this thread. I’m referring to the stranded people who had to spend a night out there last night on the stretch that was closed down.
that must have been awful! I love these kind of storms, but not when I have to travel in it!
This storm was pretty great in terms of the ferocity, but no damage by me, the electricity stayed on the whole time and the kids got a snow day out of it. We also picked up about 16 inches here and the drifting was on my side of the street. I had 3 ft of snow in my driveway. The bitter chill is too much for the kids to play in it though and they are itching! …and there’s nothing better than watching the Sabres kick butt on a cold winter’s night
This thread was fun! Great Storm
My antsyness for exciting weather event has been (temporarily)satisfied. Great Job NWS, z, YJ and Don.. you all really flexed your met muscles on this one. We all learned a WHOLE bunch and I think the banter was even entertaining. Have a great weekend. I gotta go do all that stuff I was supposed to do instead of gluing myself to radars, maps and weather blogs.
Lk snow has weakened considerably, with the NYS Thruway no longer under the gun.
No big changes in my fcst for next week. Arctic front crosses the region on Tuesday, with blustery, cold NWly flow behind it for midweek. Again, a NWly flow may afford a good, meandering Lk Huron connection, but bands tend to wander and not stay over any one location in the 8 WNY counties to produce major accumulations. What limited LES we get, though, will be windblown again–bndry lyr winds look 15-25ish or 20-30ish. No major storms showing in the models and ensembles for our part of the country, but that fairly consistent cold (after Sun-early Tue) should hold whatever mesoscale snow we eke out, and any synoptic snow which may show up down the road.
As one of the people stranded on the Lakefront Bus on I 90 last night, I want to express my appreciation for the wonderful response from the NY Hiway Patrol, the Mayor of Westfield, and Evelyn and all the people at the restaurant that took us in to wait until we could start back to Cleveland. It was really astonishing to us to receive such caring attention. We did get back home at around 7 this evening.
My husband and I stopped at a restaurant on the way home and encountered a bus tour group from NY. We told them about our experience as a heads-up, but wisely they had already made reservations in Erie and were not going to attempt 90 tonight.
It was especially comforting to know that there was evidently a master plan in case of emergencies. The state police were out in RVs, ATVs, and SUVs checking and directing people to safety this morning. Once again, thanks!
All LES Warnings & Advisories have been cancelled.
Dry and Cold. Yuck! Went to the Sabres game tonight. Beat the Blackhawks 2-1! Walking back to the car in this brutal cold and wind, made me want spring to come already! Being out in that weather can make you hate it real quick. If no big storms are coming. I’m ready for spring…Yet winter didn’t even start!
I’m curious as to who the secret bloggers “z” and “Yukon Jack” are since Mr. Paul mentioned them tonight. I only know of 2 other personalities on competing local stations that are actual mets…
z and Yukon Jack are not broadcasters. Their identities, however, must remain private.
NEW THREAD IS UP.
so you always say we will get light snow, then you say it ( the storm ) could become stronger and then back to light snow. so for the upper metro, how much snow are we going to get?
also, is western new york going to get a big blizzard this winter?
do you allow tours to kids or adults to see the news station/weather
you are invited to a new years party. reply to my email
i meant to say that don paul is invited
Is the blizzard going to be 4 to 6 inchens on newyearseve becuose I wint to bild a fort with my frind ryan gon to have a snow ball war. can you say this on tv for me pleas
sarey I didint me a blizzard I mant 4 to 6 inchens on new years eve