The Winter Outlook, as I See It
November 9th, 2009 at 7:38 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
El Nino has continued to strengthen over the last 4 weeks, and already attained Moderate intensity. Most computer models project additional strengthening and persistence through the coming winter. Moderate el ninos do correlate with higher probabilities of warmer than average temperatures much of the time during the cold weather season. The correlation with snowfall amounts is weaker, and still leaves quite a bit of uncertainty. However, should el nino attain Strong intensity, the probabilities for warmer temperatures in our region become high confidence, and a tendency for lower snowfall amounts becomes more likely. BOTTOM LINE: I am projecting a Warmer than Average Winter Season for our region, though this does not mean the pattern won’t break down and become wintry from time to time. As for snowfall, the correlation between a Moderate el nino and reduced snowfall is weak, so snowfall potential remains very uncertain. Further explanation follows below.
Here is the lengthier Long Lead discussion for “non-technical users”; youse guys, but I don’t know how “non-technical” some of you will find it. The above link pertained to December. This is for the extended season.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
One hopeful note is a growing indication that el nino may be peaking in the earlier part of the cold weather season, which may allow some interesting events later in the winter.
I am really excited to see how this winter unfolds with all these conflicting predictions. People at the ” National Enquirer” of weather services are still insisting on a cold and stormy winter in this corner of the globe. I don’t know if they are interpreting the same data differently or are using different data or perhaps no data at all. In any case it is fun to see all the different predictions and viewpoints. Either way there is always going to be exciting weather.
I copied this just in case others don’t go to the above link…Thanks Don!
THE CURRENT MEAN PDF CORRECTED ENSEMBLE CFS FORECAST INDICATES SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION PRESENTLY AT PEAK NEAR +1.5 CELSIUS, THUS CALLING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS BUT NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING.
Pretty early to be at peak Don? If that is the case, how feasable is it that we may see a late season cold snap in your opinion?
Don, with the possible early peak of el nino, how early are the indications starting to show?
Nick, are you talking about the Farmer’s Almanac?
Dave, I’m referring to a company whose name is a misnomer because it starts with the prefix “accu”
Ha, say no more. I know exactly what you’re talking about, Nick.
I’m no meteorologist – just a weather fanatic with some background in statistics. I guess I’m wondering, Don, if when models are run is there some sort of effect size calculated? Seems that these data sets would be enormous – and just because a result reveals statistical significance – it nonetheless might not result in noticable change in weather conditions. Have there been rare (or not so rare) exceptions with regard to ENSO – in that we’ve had colder / snowy winters than average despite a moderate to strong ENSO? Seems so complex – but interesting. I’m just trying to hold out hope for the upcoming snowmobile and skiing season.
Hello all,
Tis the winter season once again, (or lack there of!) I was just looking at some long range (16 days out) model runs of the gps. It appears to be showing some decent cooler air coming around Nov 26th on the heels of a little low pressure, with temps by the 27th probably in the mid 30’s and low’s in the mid 20’s. After that comes a return to milder temps with a ridge off the SE coast in the Atlantic, bringing some warming SW winds. Then, around Dec 1st, Low pressure slides in replacing the ridge, sweeping a cold front through the area. This cold air looks to finally have a true connection to the arctic, with a connection of high pressure dumping it all the way from the great white (or not so white thanks to “global warming”) north. Through the first week of December, it stays seasonably cold with a few areas of low pressure swinging through the area, and a strong ridge starts building in the west, hopefully dumping large amounts of arctic air into the eastern half of the nation. Not forget everything you just read, because this is the GPS.
TJVD–welcome to the blog. Just so you know, since I presume you’re new, we don’t use the GFS (not GPS)quite in such a literal fashion further out in time in meteorology. You might want to scroll back through this thread to its beginning to gain a little more perspective, since we’ve covered a lot of ground in this lengthy thread. In looking at this morning’s model and ensemble data, there is still no evidence of the “true connection to the arctic” you mentioned. But welcome in any case!
Scott, your endless and repetitive message is boring, at least on this blog. You’re free to hate snow as much as you like. I’m just tired of your consistent efforts to provoke. So your last message is gone.
I’ll try to get to some of the other questions later–have to run soon.
Okay–before I hit the shower, Pat, if you go back through this thread and maybe the previous one, you’ll see we’ve covered instances in which there’s been significant snow during vigorous el ninos, and that the snow/el nino correlation is not strong. Colder outbreaks during a truly strong el nino are comparatively rare, but this el nino looks now likely to level off at moderate.
As for the datasets, I think it’s safe to say they’re among the largest in science.
Don,
I know you’re getting bombarded by questions today given all of the updates that have come in from NOAA. But I was wondering if you could, at some point, discuss the latest on the AO, NAO and PNA ensembles. It looks like there might be slightly strong signals today?
1.5″ of rain in my gauge since 6am this morning. A lot of standing water around my area also. We definitely were hit hard by this latest batch o’ rain.
Indices are pretty similar to yesterday’s, Dave.
I think Scott is venting because this latest batch of rainy, semi-cold weather is putting the final damper on golf season. Extended outlooks are also not showing very favorable conditions for outdoor activities for the foreseeable future. Scott – at least you still have a few indoor golf domes to choose from around the area.
To further reply to Scott’s latest vent, I think most WNY’ers who really loathe the cold and snow now live in the Carolina’s or Florida. Isn’t that why North Carolina is often referred to as “South Buffalo”??
I’d say nearly (95-99%) everyone I know and associate with in this area (family, friends, coworkers, etc.) enjoy the Winters in WNY. Learn to ski, or better yet, snowboard, and your negative views on snow will most certainly change.
Scott probably loves cold and snow but he enjoys getting a rise out of people even more
They’ll be some good weather days between now and Thanksgiving, though nothing as nice as yesterday or many other days this month. I also do enjoy looking at the weather data/models, and while I totally get that no one really knows beans about what the weather will be like a week or more in advance, from what I’ve seen on a couple web sites, I do believe there will be some decent golf-able weather the weeks of December 7 and 14. This upcoming cooldown that is questionable-at-best whether it will bring any snow of significance (esp to the non southern tier folks) will be followed by another above normal warmup.
We’ll see!
Don’s just mad because Rich Newberg has a custom parka and he doesn’t, just joking around Don, don’t get mad!
But seriously Don, in your link that you posted, i read (and i quote)although a strong El nino is less likely it’s still possible
Check out what Accuweather has cooked up:
http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?region=midwestusnews
In addition, JB is calling for winter to “lock itself in around the second week of December. See for yourselves.
Joe’s forecasts are based heavily on analogue packages. That method works some of the time, but it has its flaws and limitations. I’m not sure how accurate JB is on his forecasts.
Scott, your posts get deleted because you have nothing new to say–you just come on here to provoke, and you’re as transparent as Saran Wrap. The ones which I find less objectionable stay, which are few and far between. Stop playing games, and you’ll get to stay.
Joe’s forecasts are based heavily on analogue packages, where he looks at years that have had similar patterns to this year, and then looks a month or two out to see what ultimately evolved in those years. I’m not sure how effective that method of forecasting is.
I won’t comment on JB, whose intelligence and depth of knowledge are to be admired, however much he likes to go off in “different” directions.
As for that fcast of a “lake effect event” spreading into the ern Grt Lks, I do see current evidence of some light mixed precip on Thanksgiving Day (details in my fcst tonight), but neither the correct bndry lyr wind direction nor the lapse rate required to produce such an “event” in our region. That my change, but for now there is scant evidence to support a sensationalized forecast.
Heatmiser, yes, the CPC now says el nino is unlikely to intensify to a strong category.
Personally, I refuse to go into specifics about the week of Dec 7th and especially the 14th because I lack the tools and the skills to do so. And I question the claims of those who claim they can do so and show any statistical skill. What the CPC does is to attempt to predict climatological trends, and not specify events beyond day 14. There’s a reason for that. Trying to get specific beyond that time range generally doesn’t work, and is shoddy science–IMO.
Seems to me that the Nao,Pna, and Ao have more of a direct influence on our weather than El nino.
Hello Don
Long time and no post. I have been reading the blogs. Enjoy some of the links Dave has provided.
Boy, after a nice streak of sunshine, today really is a true reminder of what November can be all about—damp, grey and house lights on at 4 p.m.!
Don, I don’t mean to stray from the current discussion, but I appreciate as a meteorologist you can read the computer models, understand the mapping and other matters that go into developing a weather forecast. I know there are tv personalities where I live and in WNY that don’t have that background. It isn’t to slag anyone, but how would they go about getting a forecast packaged—just go off what the NWS is saying? You must have worked in markets current/previous where that is the case. Just seems odd for someone to be on air(not you)providing weather information to the public but not have the science background and other qualifications that go along with it. In my neck of the woods they are called ‘weather specialists’–whatever that is.
Cheers and thank you.
I’m sure the data are out there – at what point do you guys generally run in to chance prediction? Seems 3 to 4 days is generally pretty accurate – but beyond that lots of changes as the date approaches. I had to chuckle when I saw sleet and freezing rain predicted on another site for the night of December 2nd. I’ve put it in my Blackberry to see whether the site is right or wrong.
All I can say is the people on the air who don’t have any academic background should not attempt to forecast. Some look at an animated graphic model from our data vendors and either believe that model is right on the money, or pretend that it is–with no understanding about that or any other model. They should use the NWS forecast and try to stay close to the NWS language. Some of the game playing starts when someone starts believing their own promos. I have known some other nonmets in other markets who had a genuine passion for weather and went on to learn a great deal about the science. That would be a good thing. Without a genuine interest, though, playing forecaster can be a dangerous game.
I seem to remember Tom Jolls telling me many years back that when he received an AccuWx fcst which seemed off the deep end, he knew to call the NWS and ask some questions to gain a better perspective. In my memory, Tom never pretended to be something he wasn’t
Pat,
As I said in the above post, there is no demonstrable forecasting skill for specific events that far in advance. That’s why the NWS and folks like me simply don’t do that kind of thing.
Competition, it would seem, brings out the best in some and the worst in others. I put a great deal of stock in to what you say because over the years, it sure seems like you have the most accurate forecast. Seems the continuum runs from hard science to soft science the further out one goes in prediction. In any case, keep up the good work and THINK SNOW!
I think for people who appreciate the weather, it is fairly easy to detect the folks who simply present the weather, and the folks who have interest and knowledge about what it is their presenting.
I have to correct myself: “they’re”…not “their”. I did my own pet peeve
Mr.Don, how come sometimes 850 mb temps have to be like -8c for snow and sometimes like October they were like -2c. For lake effect I thought -5c was the difference between all rain and a change to snow. Seems like potientially next weeks -6c to -8c is going to be borderline, potientially?
When there was snow in October, the 850 temps were considerably colder than -2. The earlier in the season, the colder those temps need to be to compensate for the higher angle of the sun in the sky, etc.
NEW THREAD IS UP.
I am all in favor of a warmer than normal winter, anything that could help keep the heating bills down and more money in our pockets is great. I hope Don i right about the winter.
Don…I just wanted to point out that you are the best weather man out there! Keep up the super work
I’m praying for snow. What’s a Christmas season in Buffalo without it?! let it snow let it snow let it snow
<3
Oh, really? So, let me get this straight…
According to your crystal ball, Don, the next few months should be warm but might be cold and may or may not have snow.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Listen, Don. You and I both know that there is NO WAY a meteorologist can accurately predict weather even 4 days into the future, let alone for an entire season. The fact that you are trying to is disingenuous. You’re embarassing yourself and your profession.
When you pull away all of the technical nonsense above, your prediction is worthless. You may as well have said nothing.
Let’s see, due to the state of El Nino, and the fact that a butterfly flapped it’s wings this morning, and the because you passed gas yesterday night, it’s going to be warmer than average. Sure it is. Give the people what they want to hear, that’s swell. It’s also pretty obvious that it was unseasonably warm in November, seeing as I’m sure you can remember, as do I, years when there was snow on the ground as early as October. If this pattern does end up holding all winter, you look like a big hero.
It’s going to be cold and wintery at times. No kidding, it’s WINTER. In Buffalo. Well, you might as well throw in a little realism.
Look Don, it’ll either be warm this winter. Or it will be cold. Either way, you’re right, right? Wow, what a masterful predictor you are! Either way, you’re right.
Hey, you know what? Tomorrow, it may snow. Or it may not. I can be a meterologist too!!! And next summer, it could be hot and humid, with periods of being dry and cool.
Here’s a prediction for you: tonight, it will be dark, followed by some periods of dim light, and then a long period of brightness in the daytime. I’m really amazing!!!!
Look, Don, nobody cares what you think. I don’t understand why your segment takes up nearly 1/3rd of the newscast. Honestly, nobody cares about a)the weather history b)the dew point) c)the wind direction and velocity, or d)your lame jokes.
They should just take your segment off the air entirely, and replace it with the computer-generated graphic of the next 3-5 days of weather. We all know all you’re really doing with your life is reading the predictions of the computer model.
Some sense of purpose you must have.
And Don? You’re not a movie star. Lose the attitude. You have some serious ego issues. I look forward to the day you retire and pass the helm over to Mike. At least when he does the same job as you, he sticks to the point and is a generaly nice human being.
I’ve met both of you in person, and you’re a complete jackass, while he is an amazing and decent human being.
Do Buffalo a favor and retire, Don.