Comments on: Despite Chilly Week, El Nino’s Strengthening

By: Zeto1946@gmail.com

Zeto1946@gmail.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:36:27 +0000

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By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:14:58 +0000

Thank, Andy. Like most mets, I have my good days and I have my bad days.
In any case, THE NEW THREAD WITH THE WINTER OUTLOOK AND EXPLANATION IS UP.

By: Andy B.

Andy B. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:48:00 +0000

I’ll be looking forward to that outlook. I find that you are more accurate than Accuweather and other weather sites. And I’m a big fan and been watching you for years, since the mid-late nineties.

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:30:03 +0000

It is typical for the shallow shelf waters of the northern Gulf to have begun to cool by November.

Andy B, when NOAA made the winter outlook back in mid-October, I posted that this outlook was mandated to be done at that time. In other words, private sector mets could pick a time of their own choosing when a confidence level might be higher than it would be on a mandatory date. I stated that I preferred to wait 2-3 weeks to see what was going on with el nino. Someone might say waiting is a form of “cheating”, but I look at it differently: there is no point in taking a shot at it when signs are still hazy if you don’t have to. My outlook will be posted here in a new thread shortly, but I did not specifically forecast a drier winter. I focused on lake effect potential, and tied it somewhat to the eventual strength of el nino, which remains in some doubt. As for AccuWx and some others who wanted to jump on a weak-and-weakening el nino earlier in the autumn, they may have jumped the gun, IMO.

By: Andy B.

Andy B. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:53:53 +0000

I was also wondering what your outlook on the winter would be. Accuweather.com did their outlook a few weeks back and they were forecasting a potentially snowy and cooler than normal winter for the east coast with a weakening El Nino? but i hear you have been mentioning a strengthening El Nino which would favour milder and drier winter weather

By: Andy B.

Andy B. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:49:41 +0000

Hi,

I was wondering why the hurricane was starting to weaken until you mentioned cooler water and shear. Is it usual for the Gulf of Mexico to have cooler waters at this time of year??

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:33:17 +0000

Yep.

By: marinecore3008

marinecore3008 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:54:37 +0000

Mr.Don, Does 12UTC mean the same as 12z for a model run time?

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:35:08 +0000

By the way, TS, before I dive into crunch time I thought of a silly but not too inaccurate analogy which fits with my phrase “toy” models.

I have Microsoft Flight Simulator. I know a smidge about aviation–enough to deploy flaps, lift the gear, etc, and make smooth takeoffs with a whole host of aircraft from 737s and 777s to Cessnas. Lotsa fun!

But I’ve never successfully found my destination and landed. Know why? Because there are all these excellent training modules I don’t have the patience to dive into….I think you get my point.

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:10:10 +0000

TS: I don’t have an easy answer to that but, again, I suggest you go over the Jeff Haby tutorials to get some basics down. Without some basic understanding of how the atmosphere works, models are nothing more than a toy. Haby writes in a straightforward manner, and I think you’d enjoy some of his stuff.