Mild Weather Lasts for a Bit; Wknd Breakdown
October 20th, 2009 at 6:41 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Mild Pacific air will continue to dominate into Saturday, although a bit of cooling can be expected Thur night and Friday. An area of low pressure will edge some showers into WNY by late Friday, increasing overnight and into Saturday, probably diminishing later Saturday. Sunday will be Chilly & Breezy with only a Few Shwrs. Signs continue to point to a Chillier finish to the month, into the beginning of November.
GFS is still a pain-in-the-butt outlier for Sunday, with a sharp short wave coming close enough to us to wet us down. None of the other operational synoptic models show anything like that. Makes for uneasiness….
Make that global models.
12z GFS fantasy range is crazy. 510 heights. brr.
too bad it wont materialize.
Devin, you’ve confused heights with thickness values. The fantasy range is quite cold, but it wasn’t yesterday, and odds are it won’t be tomorrow. That inconsistency is why it’s a fantasy range, as you put it.
I’m a snoiw lover, however I just don’t see a lot of snow this year. I’m sure there will be other winters, just not this one.
snow***, gees that will bother me in college.
Hey, the summer lovers got short-changed this year, maybe the winter lovers should have to suffer too!!
With all due respect Marinecore, there is just no way to tell how much snow we will get.With Lake Effect always in the picture, even predictions of less snow have to take the Lake Effect factor into consideration.
EEED, that’s generally correct, and it’s premature to write off significant snow at this point. A couple of weeks of a strongly negative NAO in late December could throw things into a tizzy, as per Christmas Week 2001 (although most of the rest of that winter was quiet).
But it IS fair to say that statistically the odds for a particularly snowy winter do start to go down as an el nino becomes stronger.
The year it didn’t snow.
Too late for that statement John. We have had snow this year down here in the souther tier.
let’s all rally for a big snow storm!
For after tomorrow though, because today is supposed to be 70. I like it when its 60 and up sunny or snowing not the in between 40’s and 50’s cloudy stuff.
I’ll take 50 and cloudy over a day where it snows 1000 times out of 1000. Nothing to shovel. Nothing to have to scrap/wipe off your car. You can see where you’re driving. You’re not sliding on the road. You don’t have to bundle up like an eskimo to stay warm. You don’t have to scramble at the last second to make child care arrangements because school got closed. And heck, 50 is still golfable weather!
I hope the southern tier gets lots of snow this winter, and I hope Mr. Nino treats the rest of our region, esp the northtowns where I am, nice and warmly!
Juju,
It’s not looking great for that 70 I’d forecasted for east of Buffalo. Too much stubborn cloud cover. But the downslope breeze should pick up later today and get temps well into the 60s….
Downslope wind is cooking up at noon south of the metro area. Dunkirk is S 24 G 35. That will get temps moving nicely even with cloud cover. KBUF now at 62.
Lk Erie is still at 54, which is now normal for this date.
It’s still a pretty nice day though. Once the wind travels down the hills it should get warmer in the city.
The lake at normal temp is a tid bit of good news. Now lets see if it can get above average. If el nino is going to happen, it may as well happen now. So let the first half of winter be mild. I’m a patient man. Let the lakes get way above average, el nino weaken the second half of winter, let the arctic air in, and then we can sled til the beginning of Arpil.
Good afternoon Don.A friend of mine is planning to drive to Virginia Monday,and return Thursday. She is a little apprehensive about the weather along the Esat coast. Will it be ok for her? Thanks!
See Sled, I like your thoughts except for (2) things, first, as we approach the second half of winter (late January thru early March) the air temps between 850mb and the lake surface temps aren’t as great as they would be in mid Nov thru Early January. Second, I think we will get snow this year, but the caveat will be its staying power. With El Nino, mild air kicks the cold air out much quicker and the snow doesn’t stay as long. Not to be a negative Norm, but we aren’t in the drivers seat on this one.
All of this speculating on how this winter is going to pan out is starting to give me a headache.
Wind advisory issued for the far western counties. (Erie Niagara Genesee Orleans Cat and Chauq counties From 8am to 6pm Saturday…
Just got back from Mexico, 93 and sunny everyday, rained for 5 min the whole week. Come back to 70 degrees at midnight! Really unexpected. Reality check will be tomorrow…Want to go back already!
Don, can’t remember if you have commented on this before. Does el nino have any effect on the nao or vice-versa. I was also wondering if during the late winter does the suns warming have an effect on perhaps less snowier conditions
Good Call on the 6pm end to precip Don!!! We were all talking about your forecast, wondering if you were just saying that because its the time for trick or treating to begin, but to our amazement at around 6pm a rainbow graced the sky… Bravo…
Orlando recorded its hottest Halloween ever, 89 degrees yesterday. By 8 PM last night the 125 or so trick-or-treaters at our door had long shed their bulky costumes and came seeking our increasingly softening chocolates in T-shirts and shorts. Orlando posted 11 90+ days in October, making it the hottest October in the city’s history. Although a cold front is expected today, the highs are expected to drop only to about 82.
Nice fall day, foliage is now gone across all areas below the southtowns. All in all, really can’t complain, most people seem in a good mood, and I’m just waiting for winter to come.
FINALLY! Something to sort of watch later this week! I know, cherry pickers paradise, but hey, we sno lovers probably wont have much to look to this year:
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY…DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND
TIME OF THE DAY. AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING (850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO
-8C/-10C)…EXPECT ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW…WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES…IF THIS TREND
VERIFIES.
Obviously this is a long way off, but with 850mb temps that cold, areas in the Ski country could get some decent lake enhancement, if the lapse rates and other factors line up…pardon the pun!
Thinksnow, I wouldn’t get hyped up yet, nowhere does this imply anything major. I’m excited too but it’s only Sunday night. Don’t forget if the flow is northwesterly then the fetch is less and amounts aren’t as impressive, however if the models bring a more westerly fetch, things might get whiter. If believe the flow is predicted more northwesterly, so if that remains the case, the amounts would probably be fairly insignificant. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens though and for your sake I hope something comes along.
We still have work to do to get the snowmobile trails ready for the season. We need some dry weather no rain or snow just yet. Snowmobile trails dont open till Dec. 23 here in WNY. I bet the skiers would like to get out sooner than that though.
Mike, I agree. I still have alot of “pre-snow” work to do on the luge. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but I hope it holds off til December.
I’ll do a new thread with the latest on el nino after the dinner hour, folks.
Wow that El Nino is TOASTY! And becoming much more basin-wide.
Lakewood, without a base of experience and training, I wouldn’t jump to hasty conclusions. Even professionals struggle with the climatology and physics involved, and the latter includes me.
Super! Weeks and weeks of listening to “Screw Snow” and “I can golf in that weather”. You know its funny, people come on to this blog and proclaim their hate for winter, “I could do without the snow”; sneer, sneer, crumudgeon and crud! Well do us all a favor, I don’t blow up the “summer time” blogs with how much I hate the heat and humidtity, even though I am not fond of it at all. Bottom line, we know you hate the snow, now back off and write about something worth while to this blog. Thank you.
Compared to what this Nino was at a few weeks ago, it’s quite warm. This is almost assured to show up moderate in the SON trimonthly and probably the OND trimonthly. Region 4’s +1.6C was equal to the highest in the past 20 years (11/13/2002 being the other weekly at +1.6C)for that region. A pay site for wx models(Storm Vista), according to people with access, is showing today’s daily 3.4 number at +1.94C. This is using NOAA data(supposedly), but there tends to be somewhat of a warm bias.
Well the CPC in the next 14 days does any snow lovers any favors at all. 70% chance for above normal temps for that time period. Some posters earlier wished for some dry, mild weather to help with certain things for this up-coming winter. If this is going to be the trend, you won’t be seeing those efforts pay off for what we are intending them for.
I’ll let you know what’s going on after dinner, folks. There’s no need for a pay site to access this data.
The pay site is the only one that I’ve ever heard of that puts out daily numbers instead of having to guess on the 5-day TAO mean or the heavily cold biased Unysis. They’re just a good measure on the state of the nino in between weeklies. If there is a free way to get dailies, I’d love to know.
If memory serves, and it often does not, was it two or three years ago in November you started this blog, Don?
It has been an excellent resource for weather information and discussion.
Kudos to you for maintaining it and to everyone who participates.
Did anyone just notice the “times” that these posts are input are off right now. Barrie1 just said he posted @ 6pm. It is only 5:23.
Lakewood…dailies mean little, if anything. We look at trends over a meaningful span of time. Dailies do not meet that criteria.
Thank you, barrie1.
TS….must be a time change thing with the post times….
Thinksnow, relax even i’m not getting wound up over these numbers.It’s only Nov. 2nd. Your sounding like a 3 year old whose not getting his way
NEW THREAD WITH NEW EL NINO ANALYSIS IS UP.