The Dry Spell is ended, but How Wet Will We Get?
September 21st, 2009 at 8:59 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Not very. Fortunately, we haven’t been in the heart of the growing season during this spell, so its negative impacts have been minor. Early week showers will thin out on Tuesday, with a few more possible in spots on Wed and Thur afternoons. The confidence level in the extended outlook (6-14 days) is unusually low due to great disarray in the computer models and their many ensemble members. But the low confidence outlook suggests a dry and less humid Friday and a dry start to next weekend, but with an Ohio Valley low bring Sct Shwrs back by Sunday, with some cooling from Sunday into early the following week.
Matt Rodgers could be on to something, but he neatly sidestepped the already impressive effect el nino had in the Atlantic basin this summer and, especially, in this peak climatological month for tropical cyclone activity. And he didn’t deal with the British Met Office’s forecast for a predominantly Warm Phase NAO, which is not directly tied to ENSO. If the NAO forecast works out, for the NE to have an especially bitter winter would be extraordinarily unlikely.
Rodgers certainly has a fine background in his CV, so I’m not about to dismiss him as a ne’er-do-well. But his assertion that the CPC doesn’t distinguish between a weak, moderate, and strong el nino is partially dishonest. There isn’t a really magic number at which one can state that el nino has gone from weak to moderate, but there is a narrow range. The CPC has a group which eats and sleeps ENSO, and who are both in terms of experience and academics among the world’s scientific leaders in the understanding of ENSO. One likely reason ENSO remained mainly unchanged last week is the phase of the current Kelvin wave which has rippled in the Pacific, and which is briefly explained on the the CPC website. The CPC has operational scholars and, yes, they can still make mistakes. But a whole suite of different types of models currently support the consistency of the CPC forecast for a strengthening el nino which will reach at least moderate strength.
Personally, I wish Rodgers and his company ARE on to something. We have discussed here almost countless times how weak el ninos often favor a colder than average prevailing pattern around here, as opposed to strong el ninos. But private companies like AccuWx and this smaller group, even when staffed by talented professionals, sometimes have a tendency to try to make headlines and, indirectly, gain new client interest. I can’t prove this is the case with Rodgers. But I should remind you that CPC is not so potentially conflicted in this area. Their scholars quietly report each week what the science seems to be showing. NOAA, the parent agency, does have a news conference in DC when there’s a major prediction headline (they’ll have one for the winter outlook later in October), which helps remind the public and congress of their many valuable functions. But CPC grinds out the science, and their staff is not so naive as Rodgers implies. Infallible? Absolutely not. Talented and qualified? Absolutely.
And if he sees this, I’d love to hear what our friend Yukon Jack thinks about all this jazz….
Don, as much as it pains me to do this, Ayuud may have “cherry-stumbled” onto something with his post yesterday, at least according to the CPC 8 to 14 day outlook. I can almost swear that 2 day ago, CPC was forecasting a high probability for Above normal temps during that time frame. Well, there has been a complete flip-flop in there outlook, and infact has a good portion of the country east of the rockies in a higher confidence of below normal temps. Are the ensembles starting to agree more to this? Oh Ayuud, by the way LOL! J/K
No complete flip-flop, ts. The 8-14 day outlook now goes out 2 days further than it did 2 days ago. The ensembles were already hinting at this, but the median temps in the 8-14 day outlook are just that; a mean temp trend for that time period. If the 8th thru the 13th day were above average, and the 14th day were below average, the 8-14 day mean would still clearly be above average.
In any case, the below normal anomalies are not represented as anything very unusual.
NEW THREAD IS UP. FEEL FREE TO CONTINUE THESE DISCUSSIONS IN THE NEW THREAD–THIS ONE HAS JUST GOTTEN TO BE TOO LENGTHY.
wth wat happened to the dates… latest post was made on september 29 lol.