Keep those garden hoses handy….
September 14th, 2009 at 2:44 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Still no signs of a major precipitation potential headed our way. A couple of cold fronts will cross the region this week, but with little moisture. An area of low pressure moving slowly to the ENE from the Gulf states will extend a trough to the NE of its center, but that trough appears to be targeted too far to the east to have much of an impact here. Early indications show a chance of a little rain again getting to about Allegany, Potter, McKean and maybe Catt Cos by Thursday. Several models and their ensembles favor a cool Saturday next wknd, but mainly dry conditions. El nino–still classified as weak as of last week–still seems to be helping to produce considerable wind shear in the Atlantic basin. So, even though we’re close to the climatological peak for tropical cyclones, the Atlantic is mainly quiet.
Coming down good here now, had a brief downpour, 0.12″ of rain in the gauge so far…
For El Nino watchers, the Pacific certainly has been…er…interesting?
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif
To me, it looks like a El Niño Confundido. Certainly not organized like these two:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.9.23.1997.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2002/anomnight.9.20.2002.gif
Today’s Region anoms were:
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.9ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño1+2 0.3ºC (Only one that changed; was 0.5ºC last week)
The GLAAM(global atmospheric angular momentum) is negative, which isn’t favorable for El Niño conditions(does not mean it’s impossible though). The 30 day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, USUALLY a good indicator of the state of the ENSO, but not always), is positive, as opposed to the usual negative during a existing/developing Niño. In fact, should this Niño develop into a moderate or strong, it would be one of the or the most positive SOI’s ever for one. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is neutral/slightly negative, which isn’t all that supportive of a moderate/strong Niño. With the PDO, however, there is the potential for a temporary flip (A -PDO is likely for the next 25 or so years in the long term) to positive, allowing a stronger El Niño, but not entirely destroying our winter. A -PDO and El Niño don’t always bring the great winters in WNY, but a +PDO and a weak or moderate El Niño can bring some pretty good winters(1976-1977, early weak, east based peak), along with snow-less winters, as with all climate conditions.
Definitely going to be some interesting months ahead for forecasters.
However, I’m no met, so take it for what it’s worth. This is what I’ve noticed and it’s only September; October is the month to watch for forecasters and winter watchers alike.
Lakewood,
There are many of us mets who have difficulty dechipering all the datasets which go into projecting el nino amplitude and some of the other cycles, let alone non mets. I think you’ve made an admirable attempt to juggle some of the complexities, but you may have jumped into the deep end of the pool a little prematurely. I recognize the symptoms, because I’ve done it more than once myself.
By the way, I’ll be back with latest weekly info on el nino and a new thread in less than an hour.
Before I go to the new thread, the SOI is currently at -1, which is considered neutral. It has moved from a normally negative el nino value of -7. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology notes their index, even though it has become essentially neutral (not positive, though it may become positive)is for reasons poorly understood not correlating with the clearly present el nino in the way it normally does.
NEW THREAD IS UP. LATEST EL NINO ANALYSIS IS IN 1ST COMMENT.