A Warm and Mainly Dry week after Labor Day, but….
September 7th, 2009 at 2:01 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
a weak upper level low in the Ohio Valley will still be in a position on Tuesday to spit out a few shwrs/tshwrs (again more likely in the hills) and that possibility will still be there on Wednesday, though only a small chance, mostly near PA. Most models and ensembles keep us mainly dry later this week through the weekend. But there is no “lock” on that forecast. The European wants to bring an upper low into our region later this week, which would bring more widespread showers, and the NAM has shwrs getting close to WNY from the east, where a low will be off the coast. Meanwhile, shallow soil moisture is low (deep moisture is fine), and some rain wouldn’t hurt. A system near the Azore will probably become a tropical cyclone early in the week.
Welcome back Don. Hope you had a nice mini-vacation!!
Thanks, DW. Best part was the visit from my younger daughter from NYC, not leaving until tom’w AM.
Thunderstorms this afternoon seem to be deveolping along the lakeshores, induced by lake breeze boundaries. After such a long stretch, I thought perhaps we were through we these miserable storms for the season. Looks like the Holiday unofficially ending our Summer is goint to be ar rotten as the summer itself was.
Tom, maybe you need to take a Chill Pill. Only a relatively small minority of our viewing area has seen much in the way of showers today. “Miserable” is a little over the top, don’t you think? In addition, upper soil moisture has become deficient in most of WNY during the last week, so many gardens and fields could use some rain. The vast majority of this holiday weekend and the last week+ has been spectacularly nice.
I agree Don….. it has been great weather. Sunny, 70’s and reasonably low humidity.
Don’t need any rain out here, still lots of wet/soggy soil to contend with around my yard. We really needed the dry weather that we’ve had the past week or so, but like all good things it is coming to an end. I’ve noticed that the NWS and other “computer-aided” forecasts are bringing consistent rains into WNY, especially later this week and into next week. I enjoyed the sunny and not-too-warm or too-cool weather that we had this past weekend. The cool nights and warm days have been great, can’t complain at all. Just hoping that any rain hits during the weekdays while I’m at work, rather than waiting for the weekend before letting loose.
Chris-Just curious. Where did you get the impression the NWS is bringing “consistent rains into WNY later this week and into next week” ?
There are some questions about the weekend but, at this point, neither the NWS nor I am bringing consistent rain here in that time period.
Hey folks just an foliage update…Was in Wurlitzer park today visitimg the parents and low and behold there are some small areas on the maples turning colors already. Friend of mine was golfing in Lockport yesterday and made it into Medina area, said a good bit of some trees starting to color a bit…always one of the best times of the year. Well to view at least!
There was no weekly update on ENSO today, as there normally would be on a Monday.
Well deserved, for Labor Day that is! Hope it comes out tomorrow, would like to see if there are any updates.
Thinksnow–ENSO is not a phenomenon in which there are typically sudden and rapid changes in trends. Not in the space of a week or 2, anyway.
Tropical Storm Fred is in play 250 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. Every indication is that it will eventually turn to the NW and then N in the Atlantic.
Don – when I had last looked at the NWS extended outlook, they had rain in the picture Wed-next week, they changed that, now the weekend looks dry with precip. in the forecast for thurs/fri. That is great. Looking to the weekend is far-fetched as it is, but TWC’s computer-guided trash is now showing a similar picture, though it throws rain in the forecast every day next week, from Monday on, but they agree with the NWS on the dry weekend. I’m starting to think TWC is simply pulling their forecasts from NWS for the 5-day outlooks, and they do their own thing when they try to go out 10 days. I know that’s way too far out, but either way it seems like things will become more unsettled than they have been for the past week and a half.
Chris,
The NWS doesn’t forecast to “Wed-next week.” They do a 7 day forecast.
Another interesting read on Arctic warming, despite reduced solar input:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090903163721.htm
Any rainfall from that Atlantic nontropical low looks delayed and sparse. 12z runs suggest we’ll get through most of Thursday dry, with only light shwrs possible for portions of Thur evening and Friday.
Don, if it’s possible to answer this question in a forum, what’s the difference between a “model” and an “ensemble”? You mention both in your post for this week.
emwhy; Since we cannot “know” the current state of the atmosphere (the initialization period of any predictive model)with any degree of certainty, models are run with slightly different initial conditions many times to develop a range of hopefully realistic predictions. The reason we can’t “know” the current state is that despite the vast array of collected data and instruments, there is still much missing information at any given moment.
There can be 30 or 40 member runs to an ensemble of a particular model. The single operational version of, say, the GFS can predict a very different scenario than one drawn from weighing the many ensemble members of the GFS.
Here is a well-written explanation from Wikipedia on the topic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting
Don, I know that in past El Nino years, our area has witnessed much milder conditions more frequently that in a non-El nino year. That said, why doesn’t page 37 of the latest weekly report not support that?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Thinksnow; it’s been explained here many times that it depends on the amplitude of the el nino event. Weak el ninos are still el ninos, but they are not associated with mild winters in our region–in fact, the opposite can be the case. However, strong el ninos are definitely associated with milder temperatures.
For the 3rd consecutive week, the CPC has left the word “strong” out in their predictive discussions, using the phrase that most models predict at least a moderate strength el nino. And, this time, the focus has been placed more on Dec-January, with some evidence of predicted weakening later in the winter.
A moderate el nino would have a less pronounced tendency toward milder than average temperatures than would a truly strong el nino. In the last 4 weeks, the SST anomalies in the ern Pacific have increased just a bit.
Just to be clear, my last paragraph does not imply a tossup winter in terms of temperature. A moderate el nino would probably still bring us some positive temperature anomalies–just not so much as a strong el nino.
Thanks Don, I won’t confuse a moderate El Nino with a toss-up Winter but to my un-trained eye, the page on the report that shows the potential strengths or predicted strengths shows a middle line or average that seems to be weakening slightly in Sept, then wildly strengthening in Oct, Nov and Dec. This seems to be overdone a bit as there does not seem to be that “explosive Warmth” taking place. None of that probably means a whole lot but just an observation.
By the way I was referring to page 28.
Thinksnow, I think you’re confusing anomalies with actual temperatures. The anomalies increase because el nino is expected to be approaching its full potential in the autumn and early winter. When SSTs would normally be declining during those months, the anomalous warmth from el nino would be more abnormal for that cooler and colder set of months than it is now.
A high of 61 on September 23rd would produce a much smaller statistical anomaly for that date than it would for December 23rd.
Like almost everything in life, it’s more complicated than it first appears to be.
Thanks Don, I went back and looked at the page and I missed that, I mistook seeing the Centigrade “C” and thought it meant departures in temps. When would you say it it is becoming an increasing good bet that this will NOT be a strong El Nino? and if the CPC has eliminated the word strong for the last 3 weeks, is there a shot they start to back off moderate as well? I know it’s not that scientific and I don’t expect a certain date, just curious when the pros will start to get a good handle on how strong this El Nino will be.
Good questions Thinksnow! I like your train of thought.
I keep telling myself not to get my hopes up for this winter, but as fall approaches, I just can’t help myself. The time is approaching where I trim trees and bushes around the Luge to make more room. I am getting very excited that winter is almost here. (Still enjoying the warm weather though)
Personally, I wouldn’t count on it being less than moderate. El nino’s presence is already in evidence in the Atlantic hurricane basin, where activity has been dampened considerably.
The anomalies already in place are significant.
Its funny Sled, but I actually believe I am starting to learn some things on a very basic level. At the very least, if it is moderate in strebgth like Don mentioned it COULD be, then that would mean an earlier breakdown (POTENTIALLY) towards Feb-March which could lead to a storm track which could give us decent chances for synoptic events from nor’easters. At least I think that is right!
Thinksnow; You’re cherry picking, but snow lovers nearly always do. Not entirely off base, but very, very speculative on September 9th. No one knows how long el nino will maintain its strength at this point.
I thought I was over the cherry picking days, but at least I know a little more every day!
phrases like “would mean” instead “could possibly mean” paint the picture, TS. I know. I’ve been there.
This Saturday afternoon–on behalf of the Buffalo Weather Experience Center–Dr. Stephen Vermette of Buff State (climatologist and Associate Professor of Geography) and I will lecture at the beautiful Canal Side venue on Ice Boom Mythology. The lectures will begin at 1pm and repeat at 2, 3, and 4pm down on this lovely waterfront development (close to the Marine Naval Park).
Dr. Vermette conducted a study a few years back on what, if any, impact the ice boom has had on local weather and the length of our Buffalo winters. I hope some of you can make it down to meet and greet us. We’ll do our best to make it interesting and, of course, be open to questions from attendees.
I wish I could make it Don but my kids play football. It would be nice to meet you in person finally.
Thinksnow, You definately seem like you have learned alot in the past year. Especially the more technical stuff. I wish I could say the same. I do not know what maps and sites to look at or how to read them. I’m still learning MUCH more basic stuff. (and I thought I was a weather geek) I still know way more than my friends. HAHA
What I really need is a personal session with Don in front of a computer for an hour or two.
Don, maybe you can auction that idea off and donate the funds to the BWEC??
Don – I really don’t want to make your head spin around like Linda Blair in ‘The Exorcist’, but I found this article about the Farmer’s Almanac this morning, and thought I’d post the link here:
http://www.buffalonews.com/260/story/790451.html
I interviewed Mr. Hale many years ago when I was working in Detroit tv. He’s a charming, witty and erudite fellow. He’s also full of bull droppings, but virtually everything he said to me about his Farmer’s Almanac seemed to be stated with tongue-firmly-planted-in-cheek.
If you go to wivb.com and click on the weather tab, you’ll find that we have quite a few new maps and weather products now available and rapidly updated.
Hope you’ll check the new and improved weather page out!
The new ENSO discussion from CPC…hot off the press.
Here is an excerpt from the latest ENSO discussion. The long range folks continue to be impressed with at least a moderate strength El Nino…but are starting to back off on a stronger solution. If you look at the ensemble model solutions, it seems like there is a larger spread (variance) implying less certainty. Here is the excerpt…
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0oC or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5oC) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niño will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño during the winter 2009-10.
From the movie Dumb & Dumber: It’s like 1 in a million; So what your saying is, ther is still a cahnce!
Ok, blew that, I meant chance!
You can hope for a weak el nino, TS, since that could give you part of your wintry wish. On the other hand, the amount of wind shear present in the Atlantic hurricane basin along with actual SSTs suggest el nino is creeping toward moderate, rather than weak, strength.
This newest discussion from CPC is consistent with the last 3 weeks of their weekly updates, in which the term “strong” had been removed–as previously posted.
Here is the link to the CPC’s newest advisory, referred to by our friend Yukon Jack:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
Hello Don,
So, with a moderate to strong El Nino this winter, would that bring along chances for significant icing?
By the way, it was I who, along with my wife, son, and daughter said Hi to you on the bike path this past Monday afternoon.
What kind of dog do you have?
Hi Paul,
Lucy is a cute adopted mutt. The shelter said she was part beagle, poodle and maybe some terrier. Most folks thinks she looks like a baby lab.
IMO, since the CPC is backing away from a strong el nino to moderate, that would probably reduce the likelihood of very shallow/ice-producing arctic intrusions–at least somewhat. You may recall that I posted some time ago about the extreme el nino in the late 90s leading to a classic shallow, long-lasting arctic intrusion with warm, moist overrunning leading to the horrific ice storm for Quebec, nrn New England, and the Adirondacks.
Mr.Don, I know there was discussion about a cut off low over the midwest. Are cut-off lows favored at this time of the year or can they happen anytime?
No, they’re not favored during the warm weather months. They’re more common during the spring and autumn.
Sorry for the last minute posting but for anyone interested the ISS will make a long, high, very bright pass starting at 8:30pm, with the space shuttle following behind (tonights landing was scrubbed).
The NASA site calculates 8:32 for Buffalo, for 3 minutes, starting at 37 degrees above the WNW horizon exiting to 11 degrees above the NE horizon.
Very interesting and I’ve seen it happen several times since I started watching the ISS; the time info is correct but the start and end points seen from YYZ were quite a bit off the compass coordinates indicated by NASA. I first spotted the ISS well south of due west (prediction was for WNW) but it did disappear ‘correctly! (low above NE). Computer glitch, Don?:). Btw, guess I lied about the shuttle which was nowhere to be seen. I assume they changed the orbit for return to earth?!
Hi again Don. Talk about a slow news day (Don, you’re just gonna love this one!). The lead item on several newscasts for the local 24 hour news station (I listen for traffic and weather) was how the Farmers Almanac prediction for a cold snowy upcoming winter differed from the call by Environment Canada for an ‘easier’ winter if the El Nino holds up. I think the FA abacus has a few blown beads!!
There used to be 2 separate Farmers Almanacs, with different publishers–there may still be. Could never tell whose weather section was worse, as if it mattered. I guess this stuff is as irresistible to the press as local hauntings and ghosts are.