A Warm and Mainly Dry week after Labor Day, but….
September 7th, 2009 at 2:01 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
a weak upper level low in the Ohio Valley will still be in a position on Tuesday to spit out a few shwrs/tshwrs (again more likely in the hills) and that possibility will still be there on Wednesday, though only a small chance, mostly near PA. Most models and ensembles keep us mainly dry later this week through the weekend. But there is no “lock” on that forecast. The European wants to bring an upper low into our region later this week, which would bring more widespread showers, and the NAM has shwrs getting close to WNY from the east, where a low will be off the coast. Meanwhile, shallow soil moisture is low (deep moisture is fine), and some rain wouldn’t hurt. A system near the Azore will probably become a tropical cyclone early in the week.
and every year about this time I get the same question from many of my friends – the Farmers Almanac says blah, blah, blah about the upcoming winter, what do I think – I tell them since I retired I think not!
With all the conclusions being drawn about ENSO, what about the NAO? If ENSO becomes weak-moderate, and the NAO ends up negative, wouldn’t that make Thinksnow’s year??
If that happened, it may potentially make my lifetime!
The NAO and ENSO are not comparable. The NAO is a shorter term phenomenon and is not likely to stay consistently in the same phase for 6-8 months as can ENSO.
In any case, there aren’t any conclusions drawn about ENSO–just probabilities which still reflect some uncertainty. If el nino ends up as moderate, which is the current projection, the chances of the NAO being negative for any extended period would be reduced, though not eliminated. The British Met Office, which does experimental NAO outlooks, is projecting NAO to be mostly positive this winter. That outlook will be updated in a few weeks.
Hey Don, what affect does a moderate to strong el nino have on precip in our area.
Precipitation is much tougher to call than temperatures, Phil. I’ve covered this on previous posts, but the relative warmth of a strong el nino reduces the prospects for a snowy winter. A moderate el nino may reduce those prospects as well.
Here is some additional information from NWS Buffalo, with some research conducted by Robert Hamilton:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/research/climate/elnino_main.htm
Remember, the updated El Nino Advisory is posted on this thread, from yesterday.
Don -
Are we going to get any measurable precip. out of the storm that is moving in slowly from the southeast? Looks like the outer portion of the storm is drying up as it pushes toward us. The real reason behind the question is that I’m planning on grilling outdoors this evening, and what I’m seeing on radar looks completely unimpressive.
Go ahead and grill!
A reminder: Buff State Associate Professor Stephen Vermette and I will be giving talks at 1,2,3,and 4pm tomorrow on Ice Boom Mythology concerning Buffalo climate–on behalf of the Buffalo Weather Experience Center. The venue is the lovely Canal Side place, next to the Naval Park–and it looks like some sunshine will begin to peek through as the afternoon progresses. Hope some of you can come on down and chat.
Here again is BWEC’s website address: http://www.buffaloweathercenter.org/
Don – My grandson has a football game in Williamsville at 10 am tomorrow. Just cool or precip forcasted?
Thanks!
Just cool, Carol. A bit of drizzle wouldn’t be impossible, but mainly dry.
The pollution the past few weeks has been outrageous. Anybody else having trouble breathing? A skunky odor in the city has been pervasive, as well. It really stinks on Hertel Ave. right now 5:35PM. Cough…yuck???
Blockclub -
We could use some rain to cleanse the air and wash some of the trash out of the roads.
Don, with all the Low pressure systems in the US right now, what is our precip. outlook over the next several days? Are there signs of upcoming wetter weather in any of the models?
I’m beginning to wonder if there is a rainfall deficit coming into play here. Sure has been bone dry for the last couple weeks. The endless sunshine may be nice but after awhile, a change from this monotonous boring pattern wouldn’t hurt and yes I bet the air could use a cleansing. No odors where I am however the allergies sure have been acting up too.
(not the same scott as above)
When exactly is today going to turn mostly sunny? I am golfing later today and the skies look threatening!
“Water!!! we need some water!!!!” would say my lawn, had it the ability to speak.
My, what a drama queen this summer has been. I took a gander at the past dozen or so threads and was laughing out loud at some of the comments. We have really set the bar for an extreme summer with rain, storms, wind, tornadoes and now this dry spell we have cracked soil and browning vegetation (at least in my yard). Previous “craziest seasons” for the Metro area would be in my opinion, Winter 76-77…Although I was only a year old, so in my memory…Winter 1985) Fall 2006…Summer 2009…. I cant recall any Spring year particularly that was wrought with extraordinary weather, but I’m sure there had have to been a few memorable events.
Haven’t done a rain dance in quite some time… I think I might have to dust off the rain stick… :O)
Can you change that to a snow dance……?
Alright, mighty early, however the rain thing is not being exagerated at all. Went to a favorite steelhead creek in the southern tier and it was almost bone dry! Not a good thing when the fish need a pathway, you know, like WATER to get up stream. Just sayin but a few (or alot) of rain drops would be beneficial, especially as with the shorter days and cooler weather the trout should begin their move real soon.
The pollution level of the air is not high at this time, excepting ragweed pollens. While Blockclub had some localized pollution source problem, the airmass has not been particularly stagnant since a 1 or 2 day period I noticed back on Sep 3-4. Even then, no air quality alert was necessary. The one substance rainfall would definitely help with, at least temporarily, would be pollen.
I’ll have more on precip changes later, after I’ve done some work.
Why, what did you hear? I heard sunny and mild, with some scattered clouds mixed in. Did it rain? hmm was it real windy, colder or hotter than it should have been? How did their forecast ruin your w/end?
Thanks, thinksnow, but he’s already deleted. Call me thin-skinned, but I’m not about to tolerate rudeness combined with inaccurate accusations when I’m doing this on my own time. He can go to one of the Topix message boards to exercise his First Amendment freedoms.
I like the new design for the weather section. Its very clean looking.
Thanks, James.
MC, It is his blog so therefore he has the right to edit what goes on here. If you don’t like what is here then why do you bother reading and posting ? We are fortunate that Don takes the time to interact with us on his own time. Please don’t ruin it.
Don’t worry, Nick. MC won’t ruin it. His remarks were insulting and inaccurate, so they’re gone. And if he resumes in that tone, he’s gone with them. This is not going to be a forum for unwarranted attacks on me or any of the bloggers. I’ve blown plenty of forecasts in my day, as have all meteorologists. This past weekend forecast was not precisely “on the money.” But by no stretch of the imagination was it a blown forecast.
NEW MONDAY THREAD IS UP.
what is your prediction of acculimation for hamburg frontier middle school