Brief Warmup Followed by Lengthier Cooldown
August 24th, 2009 at 12:40 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Temps will move back up to and a little over 80 by Tuesday, with still comfortable humidity. A cold front crossing WNY Wednesday will be short on moisture, but still produce a few shwrs & tshwrs. The cooldown behind the front will drop temps to a few degrees below normal for Thur-Fri. The details on the upcoming weekend are sketchy, but it does appear there will be a threat of Sct Shwrs & Tshwrs moving in for a portion of Saturday, followed by an unsettled Sunday–with temps moving back to below normal. Nothing extreme–but “coolish.” Our 14 day 80+ degree streak ended on Sunday–longest such streak since Aug 2005. Tropics somewhat quieter again.
I can’t say that I am, Wmsvl. But that doesn’t necessarily mean anything, since all the data I access comes through a vendor company we use at the station, or public domain internet sources. So I would have no need to access a source such as weathertap in my work–hence, the unfamiliarity.
Can’t say w/out any knowledge at all or in formation otherwise noted, but this sure does look like more than just a “disturbance” to my un-trained eye:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true
As of late today, it’s only a disturbance. There is some rotation in the convection aloft, but it takes a closed surface circulation to define a disturbance as a depression, and there is no evidence of that — yet. Check the NHC site for more reliable information, thinksnow, and look at the close up Floater 2 Satellite images–which are much higher resolution and tighter in than the loop you found on Intellicast. NHC says there are only slightly favorable conditions for organization into a depression in the next day. Conditions may become a little more favorable the 2nd day.
The weekly CPC analysis on el nino is much the same as last week’s analysis. Certain temperature anomalies have shrunk slightly during the summer. However, some of this may be tied to a transference of energy through a particular type of wave unrelated to el nino.
In general, the CPC continues with the likelihood from most models of an el nino “of at least moderate strength.” Three weeks ago, the text was somewhat different, in that CPC stated most “dynamical models” as opposed to most of all models, were pointing to a moderate to strong episode (while, at that time, another type of statistical model grouping was not pointing as strongly).
I know this is all very esoteric and confusing, and I simply haven’t got the time to get into all the statistical descriptions–some of which are confusing to ME. CPC’s bottom line, in my words: conditions still favor at least a moderate el nino lasting through the upcoming winter.
My bottom line: At this point, that may be probable, but el nino could still weaken somewhat before winter’s end. I have no objective evidence of that kind of weakening that far out in time. However, there have been enough episodes of less-than-expected phase changes in ENSO (such as last winter’s la nina and the unexpected el nino which deflated the hurricane season in the year following Katrina)whch makes me less than confident that the ongoing el nino will persist fully as long as CPC is predicting.
That disturbance is definitely showing improved outflow for the last few hours, and appears to be very close to having a closed circulation at of late this evening. This improvement in its appearance has been pretty rapid.
Tonight Tuesday the first, if you look at the moon the planet Jupiter will be just to the left of the moon. Jupiter is very bright and this should be well worth looking at. I believe your viewers would enjoy looking at this if it is mentioned during the weather forecast.
Hey Sled Hill check this out!!!
http://news.aol.com/article/farmers-almanac-predicts-cold-winter/647862?icid=main|main-c1|dl1|link2|http%3A%2F%2Fnews.aol.com%2Farticle%2Ffarmers-almanac-predicts-cold-winter%2F647862
I see there’s TS Erika and also another Invest #94…but no “L”..
Erika is at 17.2N 57.3W. Invest 94 is at 16.8N 57.2W — did that system split into two? Or were there 2 separate centers of circulation, so close that they read as one poorly organized center? wow..that’s a new one…to me anyways…
Do 2 systems so close together hinder or help each other?
Just so you know, Sled Hill, Don will dismiss the Almanac as useless, non-scientific jibberish!!…(didn’t mean to speak for you Don, but that is what you think, right?!)
I think I believe this more than the NWS
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigid-2010-forecast-how-cold-will-the-winter-weather-be
I’m busy, but you guessed right, storm watcher. It’s absolutely worthless.
Ink wells and a pronunciation lesson @ 5:45., how about a few dance moves @ 6:00 !!
There was no second center with a closed circulation at the surface, sabresfan.
In NHC’s judgment, it wasn’t until today that even Erika developed a closed center.
Storms in close proximity can produce disruptive shear for one another–it depends on how close they are.
My bad..I just realized that 94 is what Erika used to be… Apparently NOAA hasn’t taken 94 off of the watch list but added Erika as a separate storm. odd of them, dont you think?
er…NHC, not NOAA…sorry.
NHC is part of NOAA…all in the family.
Not looking good for any of Jemina’s moisture to reach the parched and stricken L.A. area.
Buffalo NWS says, “THE FOLLOWING ARE OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2009…PERRYSBURG 13.08 (inches)…COLDEN 9.12 (inches)…”
How’s that for abnormal? Just think if it would have come down as snow.
Storm Watcher, I know the Farmers Almanac is worthless. Don made me aware of that almost a year ago.
Little Igloo, you know better.
About huge rainfall amounts and snow conversions: in most cases, the huge rainfalls occur in a tropical or subtropical airmass. That amount of precipitable water would never be available during the cold weather season, so the comparison is nearly a moot point.
Cold air of course holds a lot less moisture than warm air, that’s another reason why summer precip. amounts can’t compare that which falls during the winter months. I measured over 8″ of rain for the month of August, that is definitely abnormal, though last year we had nearly as much rainfall in August, and over 8.5″ for the month of July. The difference this year is that we had a lot of that rain fall over the span of just a few days, rather than being spread out over 20-30 days, which is why I still can’t get the riding mower into my far backyard.
Someone ought to straighten out the press at CNN regarding almanacs; here’s an article that was posted yesterday (I’m sure Don will cringe) regarding this year’s “harsh” Winter outlook for the midwest and upper great lakes region…
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/weather/09/02/almanac.winter.predictions/index.html
If the predictions turn out to be correct, it’ll only be coincidence (just like my previous bet with Don about our area being “due” for a major blizzard this upcoming season).
Here is an article about the accuracy of the Farmers Almanac. Don, I assume this will save you alot of time answering q’s about the FA. I know you never really get into it other than it’s worthless and there is no science behind it. Well here is an article that pretty much says just that.
http://www.rps.psu.edu/probing/almanac.html
Actually, Paul Knight was being kind. There is no science behind the Farmer’s Almanac forecasting. It’s sheer unscientific guesswork from the git-go. Back in the early 80s, a university meteorology dept–I don’t remember which–actually got a little grant money to do a verification score for the Farmers Almanac over a 5 year period. The study found not “little skill”, but zero skill, and very frequent cases in which the phony forecast came in worse than following climatology.
Personally, I notice a tendency for this silliness to hype “harsh winter” the vast majority of years. I guess these folks garner more press coverage from scientifically illiterate reporters that way.
In the broadest sense, it’s harmless nonsense. But in another sense, it’s an example of scientific illiteracy of the worst kind, like astrology, reflexology, and faith healing. So, the only reason I get annoyed with this gibberish is it’s indicative of how willing so many of us are to toss aside the gray matter nature gave us in favor of noncritical thinking and superstition.
My high horse is creaking, Sled Hill. I’d better get off it.
“Oh, JOY!” (-Stimpy, 1992)
I got my free copy of the Farmers Almanac in the office mail today!!
Wow, you pulled out a Wren and Stimpy comment! Nicely done.
And I mean that seriously, that was funny.
Here’s an article on the forecasted El Nino influenced winter vs. the Farmer’s Almanac “forecast.”
http://news.globaltv.com/Nino+deliver+forgiving+Canadian+winter+Expert/1955695/story.html
It never fails, today Hamburg had to go back to school. Of course it is going to be beautiful and sunny for the next several days. While most kids are home enjooying it, I’m at school. O well, I’m sure I’ll survive.
A few runs back, the operational GFS was not showing any kind of shakeup in our warm and rainless pattern until Wed/Thur of next week. The 18z run today holds off the approach of a cool front and some precip until next weekend.
Next weekend?
Wouldn’t that be something!
While some people have moaned that it would figure the extended period of sunny weather would arrive as kids ready for school(September 8th), I think most folks are just soaking it in and enjoying the moment.
The only thing I have trouble getting used to is the sun setting sooner.
Don’t know about you, but even though we are back in routine in September, I have found it can be a wonderful month of weather, and while fewer hours maybe outdoors to enjoy it—still appreciated.
Curious Don, do you enjoy these ‘lulls’ in the weather from a professional point of view in terms of reviewing computer models and going over what you must in your profession to develop a forecast. Does it sometimes make life a little bit easier on the job?
It’s mixed, barrie1. I enjoy the lack of stress in worrying about severe storms, but it does get boring. And, it’s more challenging to keep things interesting on the air both graphically and verbally.
I’m off tomorrow and Friday (be back Monday), so I may actually get to enjoy some of this great wx.
I enjoy this late Summer weather the most. Still plenty warm during the day, and great sleeping weather at night with temps dropping into the 40s and 50s. No need to run the A/C at all. This is the best time of year to grow a new lawn or over-seed. Hoping we keep the rain-free weather for awhile longer, though I fear that will be coming to an end. Tried to get the mower into my backyard today, it’s still a swamp back there. Surprisingly little moisture has evaporated in this dry/sunny weather, I think a lot of the evaporation has been inhibited by the dense patchy fog at night followed by a thick coating of dew in the morning (plus the lack of winds during the day, a rarity out where I live).
No, Chris. This dry stretch will not be coming to an end soon. I can’t guarantee a stray sprinkle couldn’t sneak in here early next week, but there are currently no indicators of anything measurable for days to come.
But winds will remain light into next week, so evaporation will be very slow, in shaded areas in particular.
Enjoy!
Don…thanks for lining up a tremendous Labor Day Weekend…we deserve it!!!
Wait one minute. Don is going on a short vacation and whats that? No severe weather to report! The stars MUST not be aligned with the farmers almanac! LOL!
Something to ponder in the link below. We are now in the midst of the lengthiest solar sunspot minimum in more than a century. The absence of sunspots has been linked with global cooling, such as the lengthy Maunder Minimum which may have been the main factor in the famous Little Ice Age which began in the 17th century.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm
What if the sunspots DON’T come back? Please don’t jump to conclusions, because most solar physicists think they will–but some aren’t so sure. An interesting read.
Don,
Great piece. I don’t see in the article where the scientists parlay less or no sunspot activity into a colder pattern. Is this something you are just aware of through your own knowledge or did I miss it? thanks anyways, there is some long-term, scientific hope for me and Sled after all! (Yes, I know, settle down Thinksnow09)!
Just started pouring here in orchard park, howd that happen?
To Lucifer5669-
There’s a 10% chance of rain. You just got your 10% !!! It showed up on doppler, too.
The correlation of the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age has been drawn in some peer reviewed scientific papers. And, yes, settle down. The majority of solar experts are still predicting a new solar cycle to begin soon.
We shall see.
Wow! This seems awfully “flip-flopped”!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Don,
I know you are back tomorrow, but I was on the CPC’s website and the only two outlooks that show “possibility” of above norm temps are not as wide spread as I thought, and many of the 3 month outlooks give us an equal chance of warmer or colder temps. This seems to have slackened abit from about 1 month ago when every outlook, or very close to it gave us almost no equal chances but more chances for above. Any new updates on El Nino? (no hyphen this time!)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6
Why does your radar have most of our area in green? Is there something malfunctioning with it?
Thinksnow; The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks over the weekend are automated, as explained on the CPC website–due to staffing cutbacks a few years ago. I haven’t done a lick of work on anything yet, so I can’t respond as to whether these outlooks have any merit–just starting my workday. Normally, there’s an esoteric ENSO discussion by each Monday evening. I’m not certain if the Monday discussion will be done today, due to the holiday. If it is, I’ll update any changes (don’t expect anything radical) this evening.
Scott, nothing wrong with the radar at this hour. What you may have seen is the temperature inversion from early in the day, when the radar may have been in the ultrasensitive “clear air mode.”
Now that the cobwebs are getting cleared, there’s nothing radically different even in the automated extended outlooks. When I last worked on Wednesday, the NCEP 500mb mean ensemble was already showing troughiness returning to our region by this coming weekend. The newest ensemble today is a natural evolution, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Below Normal temperature value in today’s 6-14 day outlooks.
I should add that any cooling would be more likely to evolve sometime next week. Temps will run generally a little above normal this week (normal high is 73).
NEW THREAD IS UP.
hi don what do you think of this winter coming? the signs are showing that it is going to be a long cold snowy winter.