Cool Start, Warm Middle to the week–Unsettled later.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:08 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Temperatures will continue to run below average, with particularly cool nights, on Monday and Tue. A storm system passing to our north will drag some seasonably warm temps in for Wednesday, with highs reaching the low 80s in most spots. The Storm Prediction Ctr has WNY at Slight Risk on Day 3/Wednesday. However, as of now, the precipitable water looks very limited with that system, and I just don’t currently see this as potent a setup as this past Saturday. Bottom line: Severe seems unlikely, though not impossible–jet dynamics won’t be bad. While a couple of lingering shwrs can’t be ruled out on early Thursday, and a few may need to be mentioned in the extended outlook for later this week into the weekend–the vast majority of the time will be rainfree–and getting cooler again.
Rainfall total in the gauge today was 0.78″, just shy of an inch. Hoping we can hit and surpass the inch mark tomorrow, but it sounds like the rain will be too spotty so we may not get anything.
Looks like some of the external extended weather forecasts (i.e. TWC) are picking up on that trough setting up later next week just to our West (as Don mentioned earlier in the thread), and projecting rain for the latter part of next week and into the weekend. I guess next weekend could be a wash, but I know it’s too early to tell. Monday-Wednesday for the upcoming week look warm and sunny, so some of you may finally get to use those pools, at least for a few days…
There are hints of unsettled conditions for next weekend, but TWC or anyone else’s output that far in advance for precip is near worthless. Check my updated forecast at wivb.com for more details through Friday and, of course, check with Mike and Lindsay over the wknd. There should be some sun on Thur & Fri as well next week, with muggy conditions becoming more noticeable by Wed–though rh will begin creeping up as early as Tuesday.
More on “lake effect season” for the li’l professor Devin:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I may have overdone the lake shadowing NE of Lk Erie. We really need to get above 70 for that to happen, and that’s problematical. That’s the threshold at which the lake would become a heat sink, rather than a source for lift.
Mr.Don, do you see and heavy lake effect rain tonight or just lighter showers east of the lake?
Speaking of lake effect….ok, this actually has nothing to do with it, but is there a correlation between all this unseasonable weather and an early foliage change? I remember last year being flat out stunned at the end of July, while driving through east aurora then eventually north collins, I saw a tree already changing colors. How does the early to mid summer affect the fall foliage, if any?
Funny Thinksnow, some colleagues at work say they have seen some slight colour change in the leaves–not as deep as fall.
I’ve noticed a few trees that have a slight tinge, but I don’t know if that is related to the cooler conditions or the fact that around here it has been a July with limited moisture too.
Interesting question…answers anyone?
Thinksnow –
That tree you saw in North Collins may have simply had something wrong with it (under stress, diseased, etc.). Duration of sunlight plays the most significant role in a tree’s decision to begin changing color and shedding its leaves. Temperature, rainfall, and other factors vary from year to year, but the dwindling hours of light during the Fall is unvarying. A late onset of Spring or severe Summer drought can delay the onset of Fall color by a few weeks, just as a warmer-than-usual Spring can cause Fall to start earlier than usual.
Trees are more or less on a cycle, determined by when the soil temperature warms up enough in the Spring to spawn bud swelling and leaf growth, and the decision to change foliage colors coincides with the constant decrease in daylight during the Fall.
Thanks Chris for the input, it sounds like you have a touch o’ knowledge on the subject so here goes, The year after the October Suprise (I wish there was a better name), the trees got off to a real late bloom, almost end of May if I recall correctly. Same for the following year in ‘08 and in both those years, it SEEMED to take a real long time to lose the leaves in Fall. I am real curious to see about this year, as the leaves were in full bloom by very early May this year. Any chance the opposite happens and the leaves come down earlier? and we did have a relatively warm beginning to spring as well this year. Thanks
barrie1ont,
How has your weather been in comparison to statistical averages?
Thinksnow -
This year we seemed to have a quick warm-up in early Spring, but the numerous cold snaps and frosts in late May all the way through the first week of June may DELAY Fall a bit this year (especially if we see warm and humid weather in August and September), but I could be wrong. All I know is that most of my newly-planted trees were not in full bloom until later on in May, especially the Oaks and Maples. Last year, those Oaks and Maples did not fully shed their foliage until mid November, it seemed like typical behavior to me. Generally we are in peak Fall season by the end of October, by mid November most trees are completely defoliated. Some years I remember trees hanging onto their foliage well into November.
I’m not sure if the onset of Fall can be scientifically pinpointed or not (because a number of varying factors are still involved). All I know is late blooms will almost inevitably mean a late Fall – the trees in our area want their 5-6 months of growing where they hold their foliage for food production, so if trees bloom late in the Spring due to a more gradual warm-up of soil temperature, they are likely to retain their foliage for those 5 or 6 months regardless, meaning that peak Fall season hits later than usual.
The big difference between Spring and Fall in terms of tree behavior is that foliage changes are driven by the length of daylight in the Fall; whereas during the Spring, temperature plays the most significant role for blooming/budding — once the soil warms up, the tree’s root system is stimulated and the food manufacturing process begins. Nature planned this out well, because if trees made their decision to bloom during the Spring based solely on the length of daylight (which is non-varying), a lot would die off if we had cold, below-freezing temperatures well into late April or early May (daylight hours in May are equivalent to daylight hours in July), which has happened plenty of times in years past.
One clarification, there’s obvious proof that temperature does play a role in the onset of Fall – the Southern Tier always hits their peak Fall season a week or two before we do, Lake Erie does not have as much of a moderating influence on their temperatures so their nights get a lot cooler than ours in early Fall. Generally speaking, Fall hits earlier as you head North. I’m no tree expert either (my grad/post-grad is in Comp. Sci. and engineering), but it’s one of my hobbies (I’ve planted 40+ trees on my property over the past 3 years) so I’ve read into many aspects of horticulture in depth. I’ve always loved science in general and try to get my hands into every aspect of science (weather being another obvious area of interest, still have a lot to learn though
).
As a tip, if any of you bloggers are ever in need of any sort of expert tree consultation, the County extension offices are a great resource. They employ very knowledgeable arborists who are paid by your tax dollars, so they will are often willing to make on-site visits for any tree or plant-related consulting (at no fee since we are already paying for it). Definitely make use of of the extension offices, very worthwhile in my opinion.
Thanks Chris, maybe a side job as an Arborist? (if that is the term?) The turning of the leaves has always fascinated me, and yet I have little knowledge of the subject. You just help shed alot more light onto the subject. One thing I do know, and Don I heard this from you, is that the trees directly next to the thruway will change color faster due to the carbon monoxide let off by our vehicles. If that is the case, can pollution have an effect on a much broader scale?
Interesting comments Chris from Pendleton.
Maybe the ‘cases’ bandied about by colleagues was trees under stress. Compared to some places, it has been dry around here.
Thinksnow09: Tad below normal temperature wise and below normal rainfall. Lot more cloud than sun, but not many raindrops. Of course, talk to someone a few miles away and they’ll report lots of rain.
Very good stuff, Chris.
I agree that most people don’t take advantage of Cornell Cooperative Extension services and expertise. The extension offices knowledge base largely is tied to the lastest research done at the Cornell Agricultural Experiment Station in Geneva, along with that of other land grant colleges.
Chris, the type of tree has implications on how fast fall seems to come as well. In lower elevations or urban areas, there are silver maple and norway maple trees. These trees are very hardy trees, meaning first to bud, last to lose their leaves. In southern Erie, Wyoming, Chatauqua, Cattaragus, and Allegany counties, the woods are made up of sugar maple, red maple, basswood, oak, beech, poplar, etc…. It’s been my observation that these trees don’t stay green as long as the silver or especially norway maples, being that the hills are mostly non-norway or silver maple, the trees turn faster due to the make up of the tree like amount of chloroplast and root structure. I’ve seen norway maples and silver maples stay green into november. I have almost never seen a sugar maple or poplar tree stay that green, that long. Not to mention elevation being a key factor in southern areas, not just proximity to the lakeshore. I think Buffalo and other urban areas stay greener longer due to the amount of silver and norway maples in town and how much longer those trees take to defoliate as compared to a sugar maple. Just my opinion.
Another note- here in southern Erie county, northern red oaks are the last to lose their leaves in the woods, roughly around holloween. By November 10th the boston hills are bare, normally.
marinecore -
Very true, some tree species drop foliage later than others, but in general the onset of foliage color change will occur in most trees around the same time, give or take a few days. Pin Oaks, for example, hold their browned out leaves throughout Winter, the leaves drop when the new buds emerge. Oaks in general bloom late and defoliate late in Fall. Elevation certainly plays a role due to the cooler temps in the higher terrain (i.e. peak Fall season hits early in the Adirondacks).
Norway Maples, as the name implies are native to Norway, they were introduced to the US in the early 1900s, and are designed by nature to thrive in cold climates, so they hold their foliage at least a few weeks longer than native maples. It’s somewhat frustrating to see them creeping into forests around our area – they are invasive and out-compete native Maples, there are all sorts of articles out there on the web about the damage that Norway Maples are causing throughout the Northeastern US. It’s becoming a serious problem, don’t be surprised to see action taken by States throughout the Northeast in upcoming years to prevent the perpetuation of Norway Maples.
You’d think that planting a tree is always a positive for the environment, unfortunately like everything else there can be a downside if you’re unaware of whether or not it is invasive. Here’s an article about the invasive Norway Maple for anyone interested…
http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/forestry/invasivetutorial/Norway_maple.htm
Oh yeah, sorry for my rant re: Norway Maples (certainly was not directed at marinecore, it was directed at Norway Maples). My in-laws are well aware of my disdain for Norway Maples – they went out of town during the Spring and returned to find that their Norway Maples had been replaced with Red and Sugar Maples.
The sugar/red maples are faring much better in their yard anyway, all have put on amazing new growth this Summer, even thought this Summer has been unusually cool.
Nothing beats the Fall foliage of a Sugar Maple, it’s a magnificent sight when they change color in October. For anyone despising the seed mess left by native Maples (i.e. Red, Sugar, Silver), some of the popular seedless cultivars, such as the Autumn Blaze and Red Sunset Maples, do very well in our area and I recommend them.
Chris, good points. I can’t honestly say I’ve seen too many wild norway maples down here. In fact there are very few silver maples down here as well. However, like you said, sugar and red maples definetly have the best color. Good Advice.
Before I forget to mention. October 13th, 2006. Most damaged trees were norway and silver maples. It’s sad to think norways shouldn’t have even been here, but they were devastated. From what I could recall most were still green, unlike some other trees that had atleast somewhat started to turn. It didn’t really make a difference though.
NEW THREAD IS NOW UP.