4th Looks Fine, but not midsummerlike
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Temperatures will be below the norm for this holiday weekend, but the 4th will still be a fine day with a Nice but Coolish Night of the 4th. Cool air aloft may bring just enough instability to cause a few clouds to mix in with the sunshine…maybe a few more on Sunday. Monday will have a weak short wave coming nearby, and that will likely leave us with Limited Sun and the possibility of a few stray showers (the NAM is more definitive about this, but in the 72-84 hr time frame, its reliability slips). There continue to be signs of moderating temperatures arriving by next Thur-Fri. However, the NCEP 500mb Mean Ensemble shows another trough getting carved out over the NE by early the following week.
thinksnow–did you read the article? It’s from Georgia Tech, not AccuWeather. I don’t have any expertise on this Modocki theory, as it’s new in the literature. CPC is implying fewer hurricanes this year will be likely due to el nino, but if this theory turns out to hold true, it will hold out hope for future hurricane forecasting in el nino years. Georgia Tech, by the way, has Dr. Judith Curry on the faculty, who is a renowned hurricane researcher.
I have no idea if there is any way in which their hypothesized drift westward for the warm pool can be predicted in any way, so at this point–the odds favor fewer hurricanes. But that 2004 example is troubling, if correct.
Local onshore breeze will keep the city and lakeshore/river communities from nudging beyond 80…elsewhere, interior highs will reach the mid 80s today.
Svr threat for tomorrow has plenty caveats. Early arrival of showers (early/mid AM)will tend to lower the sfc-based instability for a while. It will be a question of how much heating and recovering the lower atmosphere can develop to get its instability back. Dynamics aren’t overwhelmingly good, but they would be sufficient to produce svr storms with any kind of heating; hence, the Slt Risk.
No I didn’t read it, guess I was just being a bit sarcastic. I was only going off what I knew (or thought I knew) and was thinking it was a right field type of article. I should and will know better next time.
NWS website mentions the possibility of a squall line forming Saturday afternoon. Is this a recent development? A Luddite like myself would like to think the frontal passage would stabilize the atmosphere.
And I like a nice, stable, non-lightning filled atmosphere when I’m on a ladder scraping paint off my house.
No, Marshall. Nothing new there. The question is how much will the early showers stabilize the atmosphere ahead of the prefrontal trough, followed by the front itself in the PM.
Good evening Don
I’ll have to catch your forecast in a sec, but the cold front that is approaching has triggered plenty of severe weather outbreaks well over northern/northwestern Ontario.
In fact, Environment Canada has confirmed an F2 tornado north of Dryden in NW Ont(Thunder Bay would be closet large city) that struck a small fishing camp last night. At least two people killed, a third person is missing. No confirmation, but reports are the victims are tourists up for some fishing from Oklahoma.
How sad—and the fact too—they come from a state familiar to tornadoes to a region of Ontario where they are rare indeed. Grim irony.
We’ll see what this front brings us as it is to hit us overnight.
Tx for posting details about el nino.
Cheers.
What a sad irony–coming up from the heart of tornado alley to NW Ontario into a tragedy from what’s seldom seen that far north.
Sabresfan…
Very interesting article. Thanks for sharing it. I have not heard of the Modocki variety of El Nino before. Like Don said though, it is new in the research community and literature.
This is a perfect example though of why I am skeptical of man being the sole cause for any global warming that is taking place. There are dozens of tele-connections across the world…each with its purpose and resulting effects. We are ‘uncovering’ these tele-connections one at a time, but they are all inter-related. Heck, how many had heard about the NAO before the late 80s-early 90s? When I was a kid in the 60s-70s…I never heard anything about El Nino.
Why can’t there be 100 or even 500 year climate cycles that we have not ‘uncovered’ yet? Just like this Modocki El Nino that is being talked about, maybe there is something in the long range department that is just as responsible for global warming than what man is doing. Isn’t that possible??
In any case, not the place to debate man made global warming…or global warming in general. I do want to thank you (Sabresfan) again though for sharing the new research. I will have to look into that.
The first I heard of the Modocki el nino was a couple of nights ago, from a viewer who is a voracious climate hobbyist. I guess CPC can’t really factor such an idea in to their work yet, until it’s peer reviewed and verified.
On the global warming thing–not to start a debate–I don’t know of any climate scientists who think man is the sole cause; just that natural forcing, in their data, can’t account for the warming since 1950 and is–in their opinion–a much weaker forcing mechanism than anthropogenic forcing. I just report on what I’ve seen and heard from these folks, since I’m not a climate scientist and I don’t even play one on tv.
Don,
We should sit down to some wings and a cold one (or two) some night and bounce some of these theories and reasonings off each other. One thing that I will have to look into, is the whole idea of the solar cycle and the downward temp trend of the past 2-3 years. Why didn’t we experience the same kind of cooling 22 years ago?? Without knowing exactly what the data shows, this seems to be a convenient way for the politically correct to explain away why we are not experiencing warming. Like I said though, I will have to look closely at the data to see if there is a connection. There may very well be.
All I know is they showed all kinds of spikes and dips over recent decades, with the mean gradually rising, and they did show a couple of dips from the last couple of solar mins. Nothing looks linear, and most of the climate models project continued spikes and dips with a gradual mean increase.
Wings and a cold one sound like more fun—smooth out the spikes and dips.
A small irony that the GFS, which was faster than all the other models with tomorrow’s front and prefrontal trough, is now a little slower than the others. If that verified, that would allow more heating and potentially a better chance of svr cells.
00z NAM has now also slowed the advance of the front and prefrontal trough which should mean more heating in advance. In my own view, this does increase the risk of severe wx.
Pivoting short wave near MN/Manitoba/wrn Ontario border will be once of the driving forces in the intensification of the late night convection by Saturday morning.
http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/all/northeast.html#
In the above link, click on the IR or IR/MB curve loops.
In your mind is the threat increasing a little bit Mr.Don? Seems to me tomorrow may be quite interesting.
awww.. dumb question, you already answered it above, sorry
Nice strong line coming in to the area from Canada. Should get interesting for a an hour or so in about 30 minutes.
Morning! The first line of t-storms is here, rain has started, winds picking up and thunder/lightning in the north/west sky. Looks like this is part one and it’s fairly strong. Southern Niagara peninsula under ‘watch’ from Environment Canada as of 9:20 am and northern part of the peninsula under a severe wx warning. Batten down the hatches!
Update as of 9:50 am, all of the Niagara peninsula (southern Ont) under severe T-storm warning. Heavy rain, thunder, lightning has arrived.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK Until 1115 am Storms contain Heavy down pours strong winds and hail
Yukon Jack, So glad that the article interested you…Lets us know your findings!
Nice storm line coming. Severe looking on the radar! Hope the algorithms are overblown on the radar, I would hate to see 2″hail heading into the metro…
It’s over for the Niagara peninsula. Some sun is trying to shine through right now. Unless more crops up, I think that’s it. Warnings/watches here, now ended. It appears far heavier north and south of us. We have again, dodged it.
Toronto got hit hard.
Round here, we got a sprinkle of rain, and I mean a sprinkle, and that is it.
Saw it on radar ahead of us and the line seemed to disappear over our area then resurface again across GTA through Niagara.
Hope it was a good light show Mary-Catherine.
A Severe Tstorm WATCH, excluding Erie & Niag Cos, is in effect for the rest of WNY until 6pm. However, the movement of the prefrontal trough and cold front should take these storms out of our viewing area well before that expiration time.
This certainly does not look like just a few showers…
Good call, Don!
Hmmm, Lakewood….might you be referring to language used by another wxcaster?
Nah, couldn’t be….
One heckava storm blew through on the northern most point of the southern shores of Lake Ontario a few minutes ago! But, it looks a lot brighter out there now in Eastern Orleans county! Don…what is next week looking like? Did we pick a good vacation week?
Errr i hate Biloxi MS the weather here is boring. I miss buffalo i miss the BA storms we get.
Hmmmm…In Middleport area, Niagara county. Looks like it is clear after a bit more rain. Will T-storms redevelop this afternoon or are we in the clear after this round? Was all that pre-frontal and more will develop when the actual front comes through?
Not too bad, Spencer. Have to get ready to head down to our booth at the Taste of Buffalo, where I’m hoping all this jazz will have passed by the time I get there.
Flash Flood Warning for extreme SW Erie, nrn Chau and NW Catt Cos until 2:45. 2-4″ possible.
One of the heaviest thunderstorms in terms of rainfall I’ve seen here in Boston. All low lying areas have become flooded, and the rain keeps coming.
Had a good thunderstorm here in Arcade. 1″ of rain total today.
I missed out on the storms that went through my area later on this morning, was in Rochester, they were hit hard (definitely more than an inch of rain in an hour), so I’m assuming my neck of the woods got it too. I made the mistake of not checking the rain gauge before I left, but it looks like at least 0.5″ of rain fell in my yard when the storms went through this morning. We didn’t get nearly as much as the southern tier, which has been the case all summer so far.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=LSR&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0
Just a sampling of some of the severe weather reports from the NWS site.
Very strong line of storms in convergence zone on Niag Peninsula heading east. They may impact Niag County shortly, if they hold together. Some lake shadowing should weaken them as they intersect the Lk Erie wind.
Env. Canada has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Niagara Falls – Welland – Southern Niagara Region (Ontario). Some of the clouds coming look very dark. Some large rain has begun. Slight breeze. On radar some of it is disappearing – some not. Part two coming up, it appears. We had about an hour of it this morning, then it passed. Stay tuned to Ch. 4.
I’ll second marinecore’s comments. Though the WIVB tower rain gauge may only stand at 1.1 inch, that seemed like some of the heaviest rain I’ve seen in Colden in quite some time. Creek came up over its banks so quick. Water erosion and wind took out a tree. Blowing sheets of rain made it back underneath my roof ridge vent and wetted a second floor ceiling a bit. I hate this violent weather.
Looks like the Lake killed that latest batch of T-storms headed over the Niagara Peninsula. Angola seems to be in the past of one impressive looking cell that is drifting southeast.
Interesting tornado vortex signature out on
Lake Ontario..is that a waterspout???
Just had one last downpour – but now blue skies. I think we’re in the clear here!
WiNdY, marinecore3008,
Could you provide more specifics regarding any flooding. What creek went over it’s bank? Can you determine if the tree was due to flooding or wind? Where/when did this occur? Any roads washed out?
The locally gauged rivers had some very impressive rises this afternoon (Ex Ebenezer (near West Seneca):
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=buf&gage=ebzn6
Rivers in WNY don’t often respond that abruptly to rainfall
z
Z, my back yard is next to the eastern boston hill or cole road hill. The water runs down the hill and through my neighborhood in 3 streams. The streams were bankful but the lowlying areas looked like you could’ve boated on them. The rainfall at my house fell just short of 2 inches at around 1.8 or 1.9 inches. Most of that fell in aboout 20 minutes though. I wouldn’t doubt if back creek road was washed out somewhat or any road that was close to a stream for that matter. It was the heaviest rain I have ever seen here since my family moved here in 2003, something that the tropics would see, truly amazing.
marinecore3008,
I too had just under 2 inches and found a road closed by Blakeley Rd at Rt 16 (East Branch Caz. Creek). The terrain near Cole Rd looks more impressive (Irish and Anthony Gulf). I’ve traveled the other side (ski areas) many times, but have rarely been to the west facing side of The East Boston Hill area (not including trips down 219). I’ll have to take a drive/hike around there – looks neat.
Thanks for the specifics.
Z: Between 12 and 2pm. On the south slope of East Boston Hill – a feeder stream to the West Branch of Cazenovia came over its banks in spots. I don’t want to be more specific on a public forum. (Are you keeping a diary?!)
I’ve never seen the stream rise that fast – and then fall that fast. I went out and documented it by pictures and videos – once the storm passed. A series of pictures from 2:01 to 2:16 pm show the rapid fall – about 1 to 2 feet over this time frame for this smallish stream.
I’m guessing the tree fall was mostly flooding/erosion-related, though there were some gusty winds. WIVB tower shows one at W 44 mph, though not sure when this took place.
I’m glad to hear that marinecore recorded about 2 inches during that downpour. That 1.07 inch daily reading at the WIVB tower seemed low for what I observed today.
1.35″ total for today in the village of Arcade.
Don,
Is there a record for the LEAST amount of 80+ degree days for July? If I saw the forecast right, there is not another 80 degree day for the next 5 to 7 days and we have had 1 to this point. My math tells me 7 days from now is the 19th of July, leaving us 12 days left, even if we had a “heat wave” it would still rank as a very strange month. Any thoughts? Thanks.
marinecore3008,
I did find a report from NITTEC reporting that Eckhardt Rd (Boston) was closed across Eighteenmile Creek (right near the 219 Boston/Hamburg Exit), just downstream of your location. Your report correlates nicely with this – thanks!
WiNdY and marinecore3008 – thanks for providing more specifics. This information helps correlate radar observations and reality. Many weather events happen on a local scale and are never publicly reported and therefore are quickly lost. It’s difficult (if not impossible) to do any research or build a historical perspective of past events without any reports. It’s very much like the saying “if a tree falls and no one hears it…”
z
All,
Regarding reports of significant weather:
a) trees or power lines/poles down or other wind related events
b) hail penny size or larger
c) roads closed/washed out
d) and rain/snow amounts
These reports are very important to both the media (ex WIVB), the research commmunity (ex SUNY Buffalo (Engineering/Hydro), and the NWS. This blog is an excellent (freeform) way to let all know about significant weather. Of course there are other methods as well (contact your local government/police, media live lines, the NWS directly). Please continue to keep up the good work, but don’t forget at least the what, where, and when parts. If you want to keep anonymous, that’s fine, but more specifics are better at least for location.
There’s also a relatively new website that you might be interested in called CoCoRaHS http://www.cocorahs.org If you are interested in daily/significant reporting to help out the local weather community, this is a great place to submit your information and help improve both the local and national climate database.
z