4th Looks Fine, but not midsummerlike
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Temperatures will be below the norm for this holiday weekend, but the 4th will still be a fine day with a Nice but Coolish Night of the 4th. Cool air aloft may bring just enough instability to cause a few clouds to mix in with the sunshine…maybe a few more on Sunday. Monday will have a weak short wave coming nearby, and that will likely leave us with Limited Sun and the possibility of a few stray showers (the NAM is more definitive about this, but in the 72-84 hr time frame, its reliability slips). There continue to be signs of moderating temperatures arriving by next Thur-Fri. However, the NCEP 500mb Mean Ensemble shows another trough getting carved out over the NE by early the following week.
Fron June 11 to July 11 we have recieved 10.10″ of rain here in the village of Arcade. My raingauge usually matches up well with the one at Pioneer High School. I am at least a mile away from the school though.
z, thanks for explaining to our bloggers how much their help is needed and appreciated.
Don or Z do monthly rainfall totals like i posted help in any way?
Yes, even with our WIVB Neighborhood WeatherNet sites, and the NWS reports, there are always gaps in the data for many locations, Mike. By the way, that’s a pretty impressive total!
thinksnow,
I’m sure there’s a record for the least 80 degree days in July, but I don’t know what it is. I would agree if we stay in this persistent pattern in the 2nd half of the month, we’re going to probably be close to it or break it.
And though I’m off today, I just took a gander at the NCEP 500mb ensemble mean for the next 16 days, and it continues a trend of an occasional quick warmup, but troughiness and cooler than normal conditions will dominate.
How ’bout a new thread?
How ’bout when I go back to work tomorrow. So I have some clue of what I’m talking about? Have a good weekend.
Thinksnow,
Here are some July stats with fewer than 10 days of 80+F weather in July:
2004 – 8
2000 – 8
1996 – 9
1992 – 2
1976 – 8
1942 – 3
Prior to about 1940, there were a number of years with fewer than 10 days of 80+F weather in July, including 1915 and 1920 when only 1 day reached 80. However, the recording station has moved around a bit over time, and so you’re not quite comparing apples to apples when looking that far back in time. It’s certainly turning out to be a bit unusual though.
z
My pool hasn’t gotten above 79 this year, when normally we’ve hit 85 at least once and in 2006 we’d hit 90 by now.
As usual, great stuff Don and Z! By the way Z, good to see you back! looks like there is a decent shot at a 3 to 4 day month with 80 degree or above dates. Since I do not want Don or Z to do all the work for me, where can I find historical data such as temps and conditions for the winters that followed those colder July’s. I know other factors help decide like La Nina or El Nino, but it would be interesting to me at least to compare.
Mr.Don, is there another severe weather potiential on Wednesday? The NWS seems to have their eyebrows raised a bit. Could there be more storms like we had saturday?
I love this type of weather……I’ve used the air conditioner twice so far and it’s almost mid-July. It’s been great sleeping overnight and during the day, I can open all the windows and keep the house comfortable. My electric bills will also be alot lower this summer and these days that is important. I hope the rest of the summer is just like this.
I heard 1 person complain at the supermarket yesterday on how it hasn’t been warm for the pool so she is going to move to North Carolina so she can use her pool. I say don’t let the door hit you on the way out :p
Wow, quite a knee/jerk reaction just to use your pool! I agree about the electric bills and the great sleeping, those who LOVE the heat and humidity also must remember that the elderly suffer immensly in those types of conditions. My grandma is 90 and one of those types with no a/c. Couldn’t imagine nights in the 70’s and no wind.
WNY is in a slight risk for severe t-storms on day 3. Could be interesting on Wednesday.
NEW THREAD IS UP.