First part of the week is fine; 2nd part is bumpier.
June 15th, 2009 at 1:39 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
Abundant sunshine both Mon-Tue (though some clouds will build in spots Mon afternoon) with seasonable temperatures. The approach of a low pressure system to the upper midwest with its warm front ahead of it will increase the risk of shwrs & tshwrs by later Wed into Wed evening. Some leftover lighter showers appear slated for Thur. There may be some limited sun on Friday, with a few shwrs & tstorms are likely to develop, with more widespread activity currently showing up for Saturday, and the chance of some leftover shwrs on a Partly/Mostly Cloudy Sunday.
I know its a bit early in the week but I am having a graduation party for my son on Sunday. The weather channel states “thunder storms” on Sunday, please tell me it is not true. Praying for a nice day, are we doomed or will it not be so bad?
Lucy -
I think it’s safe to say that the Sunday forecast is still a bit too far off in the distance to be accurate. Usually I won’t take a weather forecast with a grain of salt until 2-3 days prior. Hopefully by Thursday or Friday we’ll know with more certainty how the weekend weather will pan out…
New Thread coming soon? And oh look, it warms up and blog is empty…1st hurricane or storm would liven things up!
Just saw the 3:26PM update from the NWS and WOW did they drop the temps for the Southern Tier(Jamestown area)!!!!!!! By 5-7 degrees! However, the 3:46PM State College update for a few miles south of me kept the temps about the same, even raising a few days, if I remember what it was earlier correctly. Who’s right?
Lucy: Right now, weather guidance is still suggesting showers and t-storms for Sunday. Chris in Pendleton as a point, though. We’re still far enough out for the forecast to change. Storms often have a way of speeding up or slowing down. So, stay tuned, and keep your fingers crossed!
The SPC has WNY in a see text area meaning that there is a low potiential for severe thunderstorms. M.B. do you see any threat, especially being in the afternoon heating and with a humid airmass in place, for severe weather?
MC3008: Good eye. Conditions may indeed be favorable for a few severe cells to develop. Still need to see more incoming guidance in a little while. Impressive lifted index values for Thursday PM, also need some positive vorticity. Synoptic features indicate the cold front pushing through along with the upper trough. We’ll keep a close on this potential for sure.
New data coming in soon Don or anyone? I see the spc has what seems to be all of WNY in a 15% chance of severe T-STORMS. Love for some to pop up tomarrow.Comments?-Adam from Hamburg.
Looks like our chance of t-storms tomorrow afternoon is pretty good, the TWC forecast is essentially agreeing with MB on the WIVB forecast. On the downside, TWC is giving us a greater chance of t-storms on Sunday (scattered instead of isolated), so we may get hit, but at least T-storms tend to be in and out and not an all-day event…
Interesting picture, sort of wx related:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/38000/38985/ISS020-E-09048_lrg.jpg
It is a volcano in Russia that just erupted; the picture is from the ISS.
Storm Prediction Center has officially included WNY and Northern PA in a slight risk of severe t-storms tomorrow with the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail. This threat will occur along a cold front pushing through mainly during the afternoon and evening hours across the region. Details tonight on News 4 and on CW 23…
Do you see any thunderstorms forming prematurely on a lake breeze south and northwest of Buffalo tomorrow afternoon M.B.? The NWS seems to think so. Then they think the bulk of the action will be in the evening.
MC2008: Yes. Spotty showers and t-storms are possible in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be unstable enough for them to form. Also, indeed the “bulk” of the action will be after sunset tomorrow night and into the overnight period.
The start of what could be a very interesting(?)day (Barrie1, are U there?).
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wso
The echoes approaching Lake Saint Clair are AP. Note how they surround the lake as they move towards the SE.
It’s already 83*F at the Persell MS WXbug. Wow!
Any body else see those storms coming toward us form the northwest? I don’t like how they look and it’s only about 11 am. Kinda makes me wonder. BTW, the spc has us in 30% chance of damaging wind. Could be interesting.
SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion stating that a watch is likely to be issued due to the strong storms near toronto. I say by 1pm it will be issued.
The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Portions Of
Western Into Part Of Upstate New York Lake Erie Lake Ontario
Effective This Thursday Afternoon And Evening From 1240 PM Until 800 PM EDT.
Hail To 2 Inches In Diameter… Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70 Mph… And Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas. yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy! Those storms off to the northwest look rather intense your thoughts MB or Don????-Adam from Hamburg.
Severe T-Storm WARNING just went up for Niagara County. The line of storms looking violent and have a bit of a bow-echo to them, which means strong winds will probably be inevitable. The line is just to the northwest of St. Catharines moving quickly southeast, and there won’t be any lake interference to weaken them before they hit my neck of the woods…
I work in St. Catharines, Ont.
Western New York, get ready for some thunderstorm excitement! It is definitely coming your way.
dam only 25 more miles south and we gonna get bumped by those thunderstorms
woah!!!!!!
REALLY, really nasty outside. Downpouring right now, can’t see more than 20 ft. out into my yard. Very frequent lightning, lots o’ thunder, we’re right in the middle of this thing. Yeeehaaah!!
In Welland (southernmost end of it) we are in the midst of heavy t-storms and heavy rains right now. Appears it will continue for another 30 min or so but the rains are straight down and heavy, the odd wind gusts also. My street is turning into a river currently; it will do that when the rain is extremely heavy and steady. That, it is. Heads up friends in NY!! If it’s not there yet, it looks like it will be via the Environment Canada weather radar map for Ontario (King City radar).
King City radar link shows you a better map of what’s over S. Ontario and what may be coming your way, rather than the London map which shows you S. Central Ontario. The link is here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR
Cheers!
Very nasty storm hit Amherst (Getzville)… branches down all over… small hail… very strong winds… street flooding going on… powers out where I am
those thunderstorms are sure loud!
Small branches down in Hamburg.Small hail was well.Will there be anymore storms poping up?-Adam from Hamburg.
We lost power for about 2 minutes, then it came back on. Lots of rain, rain gauge picked up about 0.5″ in a 25 minute span. That’s a lot of rain to get in less than a half hour time span. The corn field surrounding my house is pretty much flooded right now, puddles throughout my backyard. Storms seem to be calming down now, looks like they are already through us…
I have a vacation week next week which I get few and far between. Single mom wanting to take long bike ride with son near Mississippi Muds either Monday the 29th or Wednesday the 1st of July—which one will be sunnier or are we just out of luck??!!
Severe T-Storm WARNING until 3:15pm for Southern Erie, Southern Genesee, Wyoming counties. Storms are capable of producing damaging wind gusts over 60mph along with hail. Severe T-Storm WATCH for all of WNY until 8pm this evening. If severe weather approaches your area, stay inside and away from windows.
MB, is the threat of severe T-STORMS over for the western counties were the storms have gone past?-Adam from Hamburg.
picked up 1.4 inches of rain so far today….
Severe T-Storm WARNING until 4pm for Northern Allegany, NE Cattaraugus, SE Erie, and SW Wyoming counties. Storms are capable of producing damaging winds over 60mph and 1 inch hail.
OK, so we have Peter in St. Catharines and Mary-Catharine in Welland. Plus the guy in Barrie who comes in every now and then. I guess Canadians watch Ch. 4 more than some people think they do……
Severe T-Storm WARNING until 4:30pm for NE Allegany and SE Wyoming counties. Storms are capable of producing over 60mph along with 1″ hail.
Affin: No the threat is NOT over. The Severe T-Storm Watch continues at least until 8pm. There’s going to be a break for a while, but more activity is developing over the central Great Lakes and it’s pushing this way. It may get bumpy again this evening.
Incoming weather guidance suggests a very unstable atmosphere over WNY tonight. Wouldn’t be surprised to see watch EXTENDED beyond 8pm and into the overnight.
We watch nothing but Ch. 4 for weather and news. There’s no such thing as local news, let alone weather, here in Welland. Hamilton has a stn but their weather is not even remotely close to ours. We generally get whatever W. NY does. I am 20 miles in either direction, from Buffalo and Niagara Falls NY. I’d say we’re very close neighbours!! We’re affected by L. Erie and Ontario. Barrie’s weather is very different than ours, they are a long way up north of here and a different lake affects them. But – you can get Ch. 4 on their telly’s there. I travel there to teach and it’s nice to check to see what my long drive home will be like when returning.
FYI, that earlier line of t-storms that sprouted and came through here did produce twisters in the London area and in a town called Tillsonburg. Not widespread damage but if the roof of your home got torn off as you were washing your hair, that would be a genuine disaster (actually happened to a homeowner). May be more damage but they’re out assessing it now. Apparently there is more to come according to Env. Canada.
I am a federally and provincially licensed wildlife rehabilitator and rely on Ch. 4 weather to help me coordinate the release of both orphaned and injured native wildlife after they’ve been through rehabilitation here and are healthy enough to return to what’s left of their habitat. Three good days of stable weather is needed to give them a fair start, and this is where I get my information from.
Cheers from ‘Mommacoon’!
Take a peak to the northwest, there’s more thunderstorms. Some of them look pretty nasty. Perhaps another loud bunch coming.
MC3008: Another squall line appears to be heading our way toward sunset. Dewpoints are running high, temps popped back from the 60s into the mid 70s, and there’s plenty of unstable air to tap into. More rocky times moving our way.
Only .20″ of rain here in Arcade so far today. There was some thunder and lightning. Sun is out right now and its quite muggy. I’m sure that will help to fuel these developing storms.
Mike: Line of showers and storms is getting closer. You’re bound get more rain, thunder and lightning tonight, and this is true for just about everyone in WNY as we move closer to sunset.
A band of t-storms approaching Welland (Ontario)and area, seems the heaviest of it is to our west over L. Erie. Rain just beginning but frequent loud rumbling thunder now over us. Air is currently very still. That ‘calm before the storm’ part.
MC
That will be great for the garden. Thanks MB
Just saw a flash of lightning and heard thunder a minute or two ago.
Severe T-Storm WARNING until 8:30pm for Northern Allegany and Wyoming counties. Storms capable of producing penny size hail and damaging winds over 60mph are possible. Also, Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory in effect until 10:30pm in Erie county. Expected repeated heavy rain over the same waterways mainly south of Buffalo may prompt poor drainage flooding.
Tammy: Tough call because of a large scale upper level storm system that may sit and spin across the Eastern Great lakes. As of now, there’s a chance of showers in the forecast for both of the days you’re looking at. Keep your finger crossed and stay tuned!
Severe T-Storm WARNING until 9pm for NW Allegany, NE Cattaraugus, SE Erie and SW Wyoming counties. Towns in the path of this storm include Springville and Franklinville.
Almost .40 fell in the last hour in Hamburg. MB, is there still more activity to our northwest ? Or is this the end of storms in Hamburg and too the north :{?-Adam from Hamburg.
Lots of what appears to be cloud to ground lightning.