Unsettled Pattern Scheduled for New Week
June 7th, 2009 at 5:16 pm by WIVB under Weather Watch 4
As we close out the weekend and head into a brand new week, an unsettled weather pattern will continue to unfold across WNY. A stationary front Sunday evening will gradually move further south allowing spotty showers to end across the southern tier. This same front will lift northward on Monday allowing for scattered showers and t-storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. It’ll become increasingly humid Monday night into early Tuesday as a cold front tracks toward WNY with scattered showers and t-storms, but drier, more refreshing air returns later Tuesday and on Wednesday with partly sunny skies. Another disturbance arrives on Thursday with more hit or miss showers and t-showers. But early signs point to clearing skies as we push into next weekend along with seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
Thanks MB…we need to start warming up! Our “longest summer” ever is taking a long time to get started!
No worries, Spencer. Summer is still a couple of weeks away. It officially begins June 21st. There’ll be plenty of days with lots of heat and humidity, and before you know it, some folks will be hoping for cooler weather. Funny, but true!
In regards to wishing for cooler weather…I don’t know about being ‘funny’, but it is most certainly true. I am living proof of that! Folks…just 7 weeks or so until lake effect season starts up again (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/lakeclimate.html). I can’t wait for winters chill and snow to return. Yes, I admit to being in the minority.
M.B.
I am hoping this is not a “long Summer”, those days of “lounging around” carefree are history…suit and tie not comfortable in 80+ heat and high humidty, in fact I am cringing already!
Yukon Jack: I’m in the minority with you, too, but “shhh”….let’s keep that quiet
Thinksnow: I agree about the discomfort created for men wearing pants, suit and tie in hot, humid weather. The Bermudan men have the right idea of wearing short sleeve shirts, ties and Bermuda shorts! Too bad that tradition doesn’t carry over here in the states. Oh, imagine being a woman and wearing panty hose! Ha!
Good point M.B.!
7 weeks…It’s Monday morning and I NOW feel great! I know Don, nothing is going to happen, however it does sound good, count me in the minority!
Yukon,
Having a tough time with the above web address, any help? Thank you.
Don’t forget about me. I’m also in the minority. Though, I love summer, and the heat. My heart belongs to winter.
http://api.photoshop.com/home_b368ef06a99849c49366da4f8718d322/adobe-px-assets/ade5a191a5f94475b79a611a2cb94882
At 1:45, rain is at our doorstep, a couple of isolated hvy shwrs or tshwrs have moved out ahead of the rain shield in the srn tier. The rain will be lt to moderate in most locations, and is needed. Some additional convection is possible later today and again late tonight. The rain is needed in most locations. Tonight will be Muggier.
Looks like shwrs will break up for Tuesday, with drier air pushing in during the afternoon. Another low pressure area to our SW will send Sct Shwrs and possible tshwrs back our way by around late Wed or Wed night.
Preliminary look ahead to the weekend looks favorable, but sfc pattern will be very flat and weak–more typical of summer. That means not much subsidence/sinking in the mid-levels and THAT means some clouds will mix in with the sun during daytime heating.
Don or MB, can we cut hay Thursday morning, to bail it Sat?
Anyone have a handle on that post?
Never mind, I just realized that person was being serious about his crops or in this instance hay.
luvtheheat….doesn’t look so good for Thursday cutting at this point, particularly in the AM, since there will be wetting Wed night.
Mr.Don, there is some severe convection over Michigan, any chance some of those dynamcis come over to western new york, or will there just be more garden-variety thunderstorms tonight?
Looks like more garden-variety around here, as I said on the air. Anytime a watch gets that close, though, I do keep an extra eye on things. There is much more favorable shear over Michigan.
Thinksnow…
Did you copy it correctly? I tried it and it worked for me. If it still does not work…do the following: Go the website http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/buf or http://www.weather.gov/buf. From there…page down about 2/3 of the way down the opening page and click on Lake Effect Page in the left column. Click on Lake Effect Primer…and then look for the graph in the Lake Effect Seasons section. That is the graphic that I was alluding to in my post. Sorry for any problems.
That tendency for the troughiness over the Great Lks to move away which was showing up earlier last week seems to have largely vanished. CPC has above average confidence for temperatures to run below normal in the 6-10 day period in the Grt Lks, and for a weaker tendency for below normal temps in the 8-14 day period.
The structuring of waves in the mid levels of the atmosphere around the nrn hemisphere seems fairly persistent this late spring, with this cooler trough near the Grt Lks showing up again and again. What’s driving this persistence I haven’t figured out, I fully admit. How long the persistence will be with us is impossible to know in early June.
Hi Don,
Any chance we will break out into some summer like heat? It seems that the last few years the temps in June have been cooler. I thought we would have had a few days in the 80’s by now. When my daughter was born at the end of June, we were elated that she would have summer-like weather on her birthday. But, out of the 6 birthdays (almost 7!) that we have celebrated, she has had only that were truly summer like!
She has had only two summer like birthdays–oops! I left that out!
Karen,
We’ve already had several days in the 80s this year–just not recently.
Junes haven’t been uniformly cooler in the last few years; it’s been more up and down.
We do get truly summer like days in most Junes from time to time during the month, but I have to remind you the normal high for today is 73, not 83.
On the other hand, I’m not seeing any summery breakouts into the 80s in the next 10-12 days. Statistically, the odds favor warmer weather by late June, so don’t give up hope.
Sorry Karen, I again just love this weather! I mean, it isn’t like we are sitting in the 50’s and low 60’s…The elderly and the very young cannot have too high of heat for very long swo I think most of them would sensibly take this weather as well along with working professionals like myself who are exposed to the heat all day long!
Humidity will slowly drop back this afternoon. Nice Wednesday to follow, with Shwrs spreading from the SW Wed night, with a few tshwrs possible–along with much more humid conditions returning. These shwrs should thin out by midday Thursday. There is still quite a bit of spread between the GFS and NAM on the track of this storm and its qpf.
Wknd fcst largely unchanged from my forecast yesterday. Dry and mild, but with very weak high pressure, there won’t be enough subsidence/sinking motion to prevent some clouds mixing in with the sunshine.
Ok Yukon, that was AWESOME! Thank you for fulfilling a nut like myself’s quest for snow! The event the NWS speaks of in 1996 I remeber vividly, rained very hard over tonawanda/Kenmore and you could see blue skies all around north and south. Great phenomanon
That was quite a show last night!! and perfect for all of the growing gardens, too! This would be a perfect summery day if it weren’t for the wind! When will the winds die down?
Here’s a weather myth that I want to throw out there and see what everyone thinks: “Lightning ionizes the rainwater which in turn when falling on the plants stimulates root growth.” Anyone heard of that? It was a topic of discussion on a garden blog and nobody there really knew for sure…
And for all you snow lovers in search of some “action” weather-wise…Hang on there! Tropical Storm Season has just begun…. although, I hear that we’re in for an “average” season on account of the El Nino building in the Pacific. (which is good, dont get me wrong…just a great chance to observe incredible weather phenomena.)
sabresfan,
I posted on el nino and its possible effects on the hurricane season in the last thread. The “average” prediction made by NOAA came out when neutral, not el nino, conditions were prevalent in the Pacific. If el nino develops and strengthens, it would likely mean a below active hurricane season, particularly from Aug-October.
The most important effect lightning has for soil fertility is that it “fixes” nitrogen to a more useful form for plant growth.
Lots of thunder and lighning last night. Biggest storms of the year here as far as t-stroms go. .68 yesterday and early this morning. First storm came through a half hour or so after you guys got off the air at 11 and another one at 2ish I think. Mabye others but they did not wake me up.Great day out there! How is the weekend looking Don? I heared Mr. Mike C. saying there is a chance of a shower sat. amd sun.? Or is this very unlikely? Thanks!!!!!!-Adam from Hamburg.
With a possible weak storm system not that far away to our south, I can’t guarantee no showers. But as of this afternoon, showers appear very unlikely. There may be more cloudiness mixing in with the sun than you might expect with a fair weather/high pressure system around. However, as I’ve posted twice, this will be a “98 pound weakling” high, so there won’t be enough sinking motion/subsidence to squish all the clouds during daytime heating.
Hey all, long time no see. Just seeing if anyone seen the Tornado warnings in new york, pa, and md. I was at work so didn’t get to look into it to much. Anyone know how many Tornadoes touched down today?
No tornado touchdowns. There had been a tornado warning for Delaware County in NY, but no tornado developed. I don’t know why you thought there were tornadoes, since conditions were not particularly favorable. There was a Severe Tstorm Watch for parts of NE PA and upstate NY.
Several changes in the fcst; 18z GFS showing very little moisture getting into WNY Wed night or Thursday. It does, on the other hand, show a second low pressure system bringing us a round of Shwrs for Friday, especially in the AM. I would consider this a flip-flop worth staying away from, except the same tendency is showing up in the Canadian GEM and the less trustworthy Navy NOGAPS models. The 00z NAM is coming in at this time, so I’ll be examining that as well.
Also, the 18z GFS is deepening a trough to our north for Sunday, and accompanying it by just enough moisture to put in at least a low risk for a few lt shwrs on Sunday afternoon during heating; this tendency–still for small potatoes precip–is much more apparent than in the 12z run this AM.
What’s a meteorologist to do? We’ve gone from an average to above average confidence forecast for Thur & Friday to a lower than average confidence forecast. The 00z NAM has now joined up with the more southerly trend of the GFS in bringing an area of low pressure closer Wed night and Thur. That means higher confidence of very little rain for Wed night and Thur (best chance srn tier), but it also takes most of Friday’s moisture and the storm path seen in the GFS and Canadian GEM further south than those models which would bring rain to WNY on Friday. Sheesh!
Thanks for your response Don… good luck with the squirrely models!
After this afternoon, it’s a low confidence scenario for the forecast into the weekend. Last night’s 00z NAM was coming in line with the GFS’ more southerly route for the low. It’s been my experience that usually once divergent models converge on a solution, they stay converged. Not this time–the 12z NAM is back to bringing the low somewhat further north again. The models are apart on Friday and how much precip we’d get, too. The NAM shows pretty good qpf, and I think it’s way overdone. But the GFS may be underdone in its sparse precip. Crapshoot-the Canadian GEM also brings more precip up on Friday as well.
As for the weekend, mixed sun and clouds seems more likely than mostly sunny skies–and daytime heating could help produce a few isolated showers. Still, the weekend looks mostly dry and comfortably mild.
Wow Don. This is almost remenicsent (?) of winter type models! Whatever happens, you guys will be on it.
Another Weather Myth for people to ponder: “Cows lay down when its going to rain….”
How much credence is there to this one?
That’s not in my area of expertise. You may want to Get out the old Google to check that one out.
Sabrefan, I like it! your like a cross between a calendar and Cliff Claven! Keep up the good work….
CPC now has above average confidence that our temperatures in the Grt Lks will run closer to normal in the 6-14 day period, with the cooler troughiness pushing off further to the NE.
The NCEP (NWS operational HQ) 500mb mean ensemble also supports this trend. Normal means daytime highs approaching the mid 70s. Of course, all this is “smoothed” statistically–it doesn’t mean every day will be near the mid 70s. Some days could be cooler than that and other could be warm; it’s a trend, and it’s a warmer trend then we’ve been seeing thus far in June.
The confusing sequence in some of the models continues tonight. Last night, the 00z NAM fell more in line with the GFS in taking a more southerly path for the next wave of low pressure headed our way by tom’w afternoon and night. Tonight, the GFS actually moved more toward this morning’s NAM and brought the low and moisture back further north. The 00z NAM is just beginning to come in now—can’t wait to see what IT’s up to….
Don…
A quick glance at the new (00z) NAM and GFS shows that guidance is coming into much better agreement. A widespread significant soaker looking more likely for late Thursday/Thursday night. It will be interesting to see that the SREF QPF looks like in the 03z model run.
That’s close to what I went for at 11, Yukon Jack. Though I only put the word “soaker” on Weatherline. The lift with the next wave and current trajectory look pretty impressive. Our weakling high for the wknd looks to become a dirty one with afternoon heating, so I’m leaving in a risk for a few spotty PM shwrs with the upper troughiness to the N & NW. The 00z NAM may be overdoing the cloud cover on Saturday, but that scenario isn’t out of the question with such a flat pattern, doncha think?
So I watched Mikes forecast this morning, wondering what its going to be like for the square downtown… It looks like the lighter precip will be north of the city and downtown where as the “soaker” part will be more towards the south…from what I can see on the super micro-cast graphic…but from what I understand here the models have been fluctuating…so is that graphic overblown, or is it modest, right on??? I know that its probably a case of watching the radar leading up to 5pm, but I was hoping that there was a better consensus in the models by now.
Either way, you’ll get wet. How wet remains to be determined, since I’m just starting my workday, sabresfan. Bad timing for The Square.
While the heaviest total rainfall looks slated to fall to the S & SE, especially in Allegany, srn Catt, McKean & Potter Cos, folks will still get wet as The Square concert rolls along. I’m not seeing signs in morning data of the more persistent soaking rains getting up to the Niag Frontier, but there is some embedded convection from Kalamazoo to near London, Ont moving NE. The Niag Frontier may end up sandwiched between that convection to the N & NW and the somewhat heavier rains to the south and SE.
It doesn’t look promising… with the TS storm possibility it might be reasonable to rethink my trip downtown.
There also are some convective cells now forming out ahead of the main body of showers headed our way, moving NE.
That lead convection has weakened; only light rain to our south until the PA line, where there are some patches of moderate rain, moving north.
Don according to our wivb radar, the activity over the lake also seems “somewhat more soaking”, Yes?
It’s not soaking at the moment, but there are indications of increasing lift in that area which will lead to an expansion and increase in rainfall rates in that area.
I should explain; the heavier rain–for the most part–should stay to the S and especially SE part of our viewing area. That’s where the best lifting dynamics will be, with more stratiform (non-convective) lighter rains more likely on the Niag Frontier. There is also some modest convection to our north and NW, but that should be skirting our region.
In other words, no significant change from my earlier forecast.