Unsettled Pattern Scheduled for New Week
June 7th, 2009 at 5:16 pm by WIVB under Weather Watch 4
As we close out the weekend and head into a brand new week, an unsettled weather pattern will continue to unfold across WNY. A stationary front Sunday evening will gradually move further south allowing spotty showers to end across the southern tier. This same front will lift northward on Monday allowing for scattered showers and t-storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. It’ll become increasingly humid Monday night into early Tuesday as a cold front tracks toward WNY with scattered showers and t-storms, but drier, more refreshing air returns later Tuesday and on Wednesday with partly sunny skies. Another disturbance arrives on Thursday with more hit or miss showers and t-showers. But early signs point to clearing skies as we push into next weekend along with seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
Just starting to rain in my area, coming down lightly now but definitely enough to keep things wet (including the soil). Looks like the moderate rains are becoming more widespread on the radar, and it almost appears as though the heavier stuff to the South is moving due North into the area, but my bets are on that it fizzles out in a few hours…
CPC has above average confidence in the 6-14 day period of normal temperatures for the Grt Lks (even a slight tendency for above normal temps in the srn tier/PA in the 6-10 day period). This is tied to the ensembles, including the NCEP 500mb mean ensemble, which lift the weak trough near the Grt Lks further to the east toward Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. That would allow normal “heights” at the 500mb level (the barometric pressure distribution at the 500mb pressure surface to replace the below normal heights which have been prevalent so far this June.
Bottom line: Slow warming.
Just under 1.5″ of rain has fallen at one of our Jamestown Neighborhood WeatherNet sites, with more than 1.3″ at the other 2.
Hey don, how re ya?
can buffalo hit 100+ during the summertime or will the lake breeze prevent it from that?
Going back to 1871, Buffalo has hit 99 once, and never hit 100. It’s not so much the lake breeze as it is the humidity, which modifies the airmass.
Miami and Tampa have never hit 100 either, due to the moisture in the air.
Don
which phase are we at right now. el nino or la nina?
I should have phrased that it’s not only the lake breeze, since other locations in close proximity to the water, such as NYC and Boston, have hit over 100 numerous times. With a downslope breeze, it would be possible for us to hit that mark but, somehow, it’s never happened in record-keeping history. When NYC and Boston do it, it’s always with a drying land breeze.
Don
what about the genesse valley they always seem to be the warmest in wny
I need the rain, my grass seed won’t grow with just my daily watering!
Don,
matt in Arcade… Very heavy rain over an inch in 45 mins and it is continuing to come down with no stopping.. How much rain can i expect.. If this keeps up we could have some issues thank goodness we need the rain… There is some poor drainage flooding and ponding on the roads…
Since 9:06pm 1.5 inches of rain in Arcade/Yorkshire Pioneer High School 1.79 inches total today.. Rain is starting to let up a little bit
Radar indicates the heaviest rain has lifted north of Arcade in the last few minutes, Matt. Conditions will slowly improve in the next couple of hours.
Thats good.. Being a Vol fireman i can rememeber right aroudn this time in 97 i believe when we woke up to flash flooding and over 3 and a half inches of rain and a state of emergency because of training which no one could predict.. Cost millions in damages and lots of damage.. Not a good thing when your out in it and see the damage first hand to peoples belongings…
Thanks Don…
There was a zone of convergence extending all the way from near Dunkirk to SE of Warsaw, but it’s weakening and lifting to the NE now.
That is good news… Rain is really light now 1.86″ total today.. We needed the rain
Flash Flood watch just issued for Wyoming county until 6am
Both the 12z NAM and GFS are more emphatic about a Sct Shwr risk Saturday in the PM. The NAM seems overdone (and would bring more numerous shwrs), but even the GFS shows better defined weak convection tomorrow afternoon, as clouds build.
Sunday looks like the drier and sunnier of the 2 weekend days, though some clouds will mix in during daytime heating.
Today’s 6-14 Day Outlook from CPC is much the same as yesterday’s. Better than average confidence of near normal temps and mostly near normal precip. The cooler troughiness will stay further toward the NE and Canadian Maritimes.
00z NAM focuses Saturday PM shwrs well to the SE of Buffalo. While clouds will still build up for the afternoon, the Niagara Frontier now looks to stay Mostly Dry. Sunday still looks Partly Sunny, Mild, and Mostly Dry.
Don and all weather reporters,
Below is today’s forecast write up. Please include the forecast for the wind. We live on a lake where people boat and plan beach days. The wind is very important to decisions that are made. The wind is consistenly left out of your forecasts. Thanks for your time.
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Good Saturday from Meteorologist Lindsay Schwarzwaelder:
Today will feature a cloud/sun mix with temperatures just below average (near 70). A few showers will pop up this afternoon in areas S & E of the metro while the Niagara Frontier should remain mostly dry. A few of this showers may linger into this evening however after midnight clouds will begin to dissipate, which will give way to partly cloudy skies by dawn (44-52). Sunday will be partly sunny and mostly rainfree with highs in the L-M70s. There is the chance of a shower late Sunday but much of the day will remain completely dry. Monday will be slightly more humid with partly sunny skies and a few sct’d showers. Tuesday is looking to be a beauty with mostly sunny skies and highs in the U70s. We’ll pick up a few clouds on Wednesday with some unsettled weather arriving toward the end of the week on Thursday and Friday.
SATURDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Chance of a shower S & E later this afternoon. The Niagara Frontier should remain mostly dry if not completely dry. High 69. Waves under 1 foot on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
SUNDAY; Partly Sunny and Mainly Dry. Chance of a shower toward the evening. High: 71-75.
MONDAY; Partly to Mostly Cloudy and more humid with a few showers. High: 75.
TUESDAY; Mostly Sunny and warm. High: 77.
WEDNESDAY; Partly-mostly cloudy. High: 75.
THURSDAY; Mostly Cloudy and Humid with Sct Shwrs. High; 75.
FRIDAY; Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Muggy with Sct Shwrs & Tstorms. High: 78.
Brad,
The wind is NOT consistently left out of our forecasts. Quite the opposite is true. The wind is ALWAYS in our on-air forecasts, most of our 844-4444 forecasts, and most detailed forecasts we put on wivb.com. Though there may be a rare exception as above,we give more wind information than any broadcast source in WNY.
By the way, wind will not be a major factor this weekend. Winds will generally be from the W or NW at 8-14 mph during the day, with wave heights (noted above) generally 1′ or less.
Don Paul
Chief Meteorologist, WIVB WeatherWatch 4
While cloudy skies may look a bit threatening in some parts of WNY on this Saturday afternoon, it will remain dry with cool highs in the mid to upper 60s. The exception is across No. PA where a few showers are possible in McKean and Potter counties. Patchy fog will blanket portions of the area tonight. Tomorrow ought to be delightful with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 70s.
It’s an absolutely gorgeous day across WNY with abundant sunshine and super comfortable temps in the low 70s along with a gentle breeze. A fast moving disturbance will push across WNY later tonight allowing for a few stray showers to develop overnight into early tomorrow. However, high pressure will quickly take over and drier weather will punch in into Monday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. We start to turn up the summer heat going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs around 80. More unsettled weather heads our way toward the end of the week. Details tonight at 6 and 11 on News 4 and at 10pm on CW23…
interesting…I check a variety of forecasts each day and for tomorrow, they are all in disagreement…
I’ll have a preliminary updated fcst and new thread by midday/early afternoon. The threat of shwrs for Wed which was in my Friday fcst is now in the NWS forecast (though that threat was mainly defined by their GFS model which, by itself, it hardly a sealed deal).
Hey Don,
Looks like the NWS forecasts are showing a pretty good chance of rain every day from Wednesday through next Monday. This is about the time last year where we went into a “wet” weather pattern (and stayed that way until late August). Do you think it’s shaping up similarly for the rest of the month?
Don,
I’m not actually too detailed, as you know, but Chris’s comment got me to thinking, so I read the NWS text forecast as well and it only mentions a chance of showers and thunderstorms thru the period as a # of short waves would be going thru the area but too hard to pinpoint an exact date so they went blanket coverage. However, reading this also made me think of Mikes forecast this am and it was different from NWS text, kinda alot, if I remember right. It seemed there ‘cast was more in line with M.B.’s last night…any thoughts?
Chris, no that’s not the way I see it at this point. Thinksnow; I’ll have to admit I don’t see Mike’s AM fcst, and wasn’t able to see MB’s last night. I do check their internet fcst at wivb.com, and I didn’t see that big a difference between Mike and the NWS.
NEW THREAD IS UP.
Bring back Mary Beth.