NO BREAKOUT WARMING THIS WEEK
June 1st, 2009 at 3:13 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
After Sunday, any day this week will feel milder by comparison. But no summerlike warmth is in view through the week. We may reach the low 70s on Friday, but will likely be in the mid-upper 60s most days though next weekend. Very limited moisture is crossing the region on Monday into the evening, but it’s no “biggie.” Another surge of somewhat greater moisture will arrive by Wed AM, with drier conditions returning for Thursday into the weekend. While the weekend is not a lock at this early point, things are looking up for a mainly dry weekend.
Don, Thank you very much for putting news 4 on cellular phones and ipods. A great help. Thanks again and keep up the great work.-Adam from Hamburg….
Don…what about the wind? On top of the cooler temps, the wind makes it that much cooler, and I keep having to replace my frayed American flags. Will the wind quiet down soon? (It would be a great place for wind generated power, wouldn’t it!?)
Winds tend to lighten up after there’s less temperature differential between the land and lake water, and when we get weaker low pressure systems in the warm weather months.
Thanks, Adam. But I can’t take credit for the new wivb phone apps–that’s our internet staff.
CPC going with above average confidence of cooler than normal temps in the Great Lakes in the 6-14 day outlooks. There will be fairly persistent ridging over the west and troughing over the NE (with occasional brief departures).
Don isnt this the way the pattern was much of the winter as well?
For a good part of it, Mike. But it’s the most common pattern–in varying strengths–to bring the Great Lakes cooler weather at any time of the year, not just winter. Ridging west and troughing east generally causes the jet to tilt from NW to SE and that delivers cooler Canadian or Arctic air to our region.
Don, Hve we had more wind this year than in the past. It seem like we have had more and stronger winds lately.
Larry,
In all honesty, I don’t have the time to look that up. But gusty winds in WNY are quite common in the spring, until the lake gets warmer and until low pressure systems get weaker–as I posted above.
18z GFS and 00z NAM slow the arrival of moisture for Wednesday, and keep most of it south of the Niagara Frontier. In fact, the NAM keeps WNY mostly dry. Naturally, my updated fcst now reflects this trend.
The wknd still looking good, though showers may be approaching by late Sunday afternoon/early evening.
Don,
It may be commom knowledge to some on this blog, but could you please explain what “18z GFS and 00z NAM” are? Are these forecast models from the National Weather Service?
Thanks,
Peter
Peter,
You guessed correctly. I apologize for the “model dropping” but it does get cumbersome to explain some terminology each time they’re mentioned. The 18z and 00z nomenclature refer to the time of the model run, in Universal (formerly Greenwich Mean) time, with the z standing for “zulu.”
Hi Don,
Do you see any change in the jet stream, allowing the warmer weather to
reach WNY anytime soon?
Peter and others, Here is a link so you can convert zulu time to our time. Hope it helps…
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html
Martha, there are hints of more warming toward mid-month. Right now, the normal high is only 71, not 80 or 85, as some folks seem to think.
CPC’s confidence level for below normal temps in the Grt Lks for the 6-10 day period has gone from yesterday’s above average to average today. But their confidence level for a similar tendency in the 8-14 day period remains above average.
So, still no sign of “breakout warming” to truly summerlike temps–though that’s not unusual in the first part of June.
At this point, I’ve had to insert the chance of some afternoon shwrs on Sunday, which should start out Partly Sunny. Not a lock, as I’ve been saying.
I want to apply a granular weed control product to my lawn. To optimize the effect of this product it calls for a dewy morning with no rain for 24 hours after application. Is it possible you see conditions like this coming up? I’m not sure what coditions cause a dewy morning. I think you are the best, thanks.
Dennis, you have a shot at dew both Thur and Fri mornings–you have to get out there early for the maximum dew, close to sunrise. Good luck!
CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has average confidence for a marked trend of below normal temps in the Grt Lks in the 6-10 day period and a weaker trend of below normal temps in the 8-14 day period. There also is a tendency toward above normal precipitation.
Don,
I for one can handle this just fine. I wear a suit and tie every day and not having 80+ temps and high humidity….Sorry hot weather lovers, this doesn’t bother me one bit.
On the other hand, I’m not seeing any signs of significant cooling in the operational model run of the GFS through Friday next week. There are hints of a trough reestablishing itself near the Grt Lks by next (not this) wknd.
Hi Don,
Here is another view. This weather is good for the school kids that are just itching to be on summer vacation. It helps them keep their minds on the books instead of daydreaming about those lazy hazy days of summer!
I am one of those people longing for those 80 degree days–we don’t get that many of them throughout the year.
Thanks for doing a great job!
Thanks, Karen. Actually, in the typical summer, Buffalo gets plenty of days in the 80s. It’s the 90s that are hard to come by (we average 3 90 degree days each year). No 80s in sight right now–average high for today is 72.
Have to revise the Friday forecast. It looks like sun will fade with inc clouds spreading north. Some lt rain or sct shwrs will reach the s tier, especially to the SE and may drift far enough N & W to get to the metro area for a while in the afternoon. The moisture will retreat to the ESE again for Saturday. Sunday looks Partly/Mostly Cloudy and mostly dry, but a stray shwr can’t be ruled out.
Can we please get an update on the weekend?
Another one comes after I’ve done some work, Al. In the meantime, you’ve got one right above your post and at wivb.com.
Wknd fcst largely unchanged. Mostly to Partly Sunny on Saturday with a high near 70. More clouds will cross the region on Sunday, with any precip chances very low. The bit o’ moisture last night’s NAM and our Microcast were bring up to the srn tier for tomorrow now looks mainly like clouds with only a stray sprinkle or 2 possible–more sun on the Niag Frontier.
Do you think we will have a SUMMER this year?
Back from the chilly shores of Lake Huron.
I would love to bottle this day and open it up in mid-January.
I appreciate what Joe asks about summer, but summer hasn’t arrived yet by calendar date. I think Don said it best in a posting to Martha(June 2nd)that the average high is 71 for this time of year. I think the lack of even a few consecutive days of unseasonably warm weather, say 80 F, leaves us feeling that we have been deprived.
Curious Don, and I know you can only speak from your neck of the woods–temperature wise–how are things so far this spring in WNY—off the mark, close to normal or below.
‘Round here it is 65 F and SE wind around 5 mph—perfect for hiking the trails. No complaints.
Glad you asked, barrie1. The normal mean temperature for May is 57.0 degrees, and this past May our mean was 57.2.
In other words, normal.
18z NAM is a little more aggressive with moisture getting in here for Sunday, so I’m verbally mentioning a less than 50/50 chance of a few lt shwrs for that day, with Mostly Cloudy skies. More on this after the next model runs.
Hi Don, you nailed the conditions I was looking for perfectly,a dewy morning, my shoes are still drying. Thanks again.
Good, Dennis. Heck, my sneakers got wet walking the pups at 11am today….
There are at least hints that the troughing over the Great Lks/NE will be dissipating in about a week, which would allow milder temperatures to become more dominant. There’s still a good deal of uncertainty about this but when we look at ensembles of the models (the many individual runs with differing initial conditions of each model), there is a little more statistical weight toward a moderating trend with the trough going away in our part of the country.
Make that a little more than a week–closer to near 10 days out (lost my mental place!).
18z GFS and 00z NAM continue to converge with a damper scenario for Sunday. Looks like some Occl Showers–not a soaking rain–but not nice, either.
Saturday still looks solid, and Monday looks drier, ahead of more unsettled conditions by later Monday night into midweek.
If tomomorrows model runs and ensemble members pump us less uniform lift over WNY, the shwrs might dry themselves up right out of the fcst for Sunday. But for today, the trend has been in the opposite direction, so some modest pessimism is justified at this point.
It’s a beautiful start to this Friday with sunshine and high clouds. Clouds will be somewhat thicker south and east of Buffalo today with a slight chance of a spotty shower or sprinkle especially in our Northern PA viewing area this afternoon. However, should any moisture arrive, it will not last for long. Enjoy the weekend!
Moisture for any shwrs on Sunday looks very limited in the AM model runs. Mostly Cloudy, but shower coverage and amounts look sparse–and may not even happen. More significant rains will be confined to parts of Michigan and srn Ontario, and maybe leak down to Lk Ontario north of WNY.
Saturday still looks terrific!
An EL NINO WATCH was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday. There are 2 basic types of climate models used. Statistical Models are still tending to keep us in neutral ENSO conditions (neither el nino nor la nina). However, what are known as Dynamical Models are giving a fairly strong indication that el nino conditions will develop between now and August, and that such a transition is already in progress. If the dynamical models are on to something, an el nino would likely lessen the overall severity of the Atlantic hurricane season. El nino tends to produce wind shear over the tropical Atlantic basin which is destructive to the transition of tropical waves to cyclones.
Still, it should be noted that highly destructive Hurricane Andrew which devastated Homestead FL and caused huge damage in parts of S Florida in 1992 occurred in an el nino year, which was otherwise fairly quiet in the Atlantic.
Thats a new one…never heard of a El Nino Watch! Hope it doesnt take place though, the economy around here (Ellicottville, Colden and others) do not need a mild winter. Does any one have an idea how well those facilties fared this year? (Not rhetorical, I actually Know) It was one if not the best years Ellicottville has had in along time. That really helps the local economy in so many ways. Long way off, but those are my feelings.
Thinksnow,
It’s too early to despair. As Yukon Jack and I have posted several times, weak el ninos are not associated with mild and less snowy winters around here. Strong el ninos are. We don’t have a handle yet on the amplitude of this likely el nino.
While we are kicking around the topic of climate and teleconnections in regards to long range forecasting…here is a very interesting article on sun spot activity. It is a very ‘illuminating’ article. Okay, okay, bad pun.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
Enjoy.
Wasn’t 1976-1977 a weak El Nino? I’ve heard what it was before, but I wasn’t sure.
It’s a delightful start to Saturday in WNY with plenty of sunshine to go around. A cold front will move through around midday producing a mix of sun and clouds but no rain. A comfortable afternoon is in the works with highs around 70.
A mainly cloudy sky is expected tomorrow on Sunday with only a passing light shower possible, and there will certainly be plenty of dry time mixed in.
LakewoodWx: I looked at the Southern Oscillation Index, and it appears you are essentially correct. There also was a strongly negative NAO during that bitter period which, in a sense, can “override” a weaker el nino.
Lakewood,
Nice pull! That is some 32 years ago…I have trouble with yesterdays memories!
Don,
Yeah, I know there is no handle yet, as is to be expected with anything in weather, I should have made a point to, well, point out the impact of a strong El nino. Contrary to your belief and my wifes, I do listen, sometimes.
M.B. or Don,
I just checked on a website (to be un-named only that it rhymes with feather flannel) and it mentions a 50% chance o’ rain tomorrow…Has there been a change from your earlier post this AM? Always count on your answer!
Yukon (If I may)
That was a very interesting article to say the least…even more so that “we” (I wasn ‘t alive) could see the activity of the sun in the 1500’s! Very impressive/surprising.
Thinksnow,
I’m off duty, but I’d say 50% is too high. No change in my thinking from last night.
Cool…Fishing outing in the AM!