Dry Spell Ends, but Relief will be Uneven
May 26th, 2009 at 12:43 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
As showers spread slowly north Tuesday afternoon, they will tend to weaken somewhat. All in all, rainfall coverage over the next few days will be uneven. There will be a better chance for more widespread lt to moderate rain overnight tonight, and then precip will again be more cellular in nature–with maybe a few tshowers Wed and Thur afternoon. We will also be “muggifying” to some extent by Wed-Thur. Obviously, what rainfall we get is badly needed to bring shallow soil moisture up to par. A somewhat cooler airmass will arrive on Friday, though there could still be a few showers. Weekend fcst confidence is less than I’d like at this point for Saturday, but most evidence points toward cool temperatures to develop–can’t rule out a few Saturday shwrs.
Don intense is the word all right!
Lightning that should in my last post, my lights blinked. Intense is the word, Don. I haven’t seen a down pour like this in ages and it is much needed. The rain is sheeting on the road and a river is running down my walk.
Intense T-storm in Hamburg. Just poured on the bus trip home. .33 in the last hour on my gauge. Seems like more. Very loud thunder with cloud to ground strikes. Fire hall horn went off a little while ago. Don any of these next stroms in southwestern New York have a chance of hitting Hamburg or Buffalo?-Adam from Hamburg…..
Gimmer. Just had the same happen over here. Rivers too. Rain starting to pick up again:}
Seen four nasty lightning strikes and lots of thunder so far.
I just added 2 inches of water to my pool yesterday. Wish I would have waited. Now it’s up to the top.
Those cells leaving Erie look impressive.
I’m hearing rumbles here in S Cheektavegas, too. The air is so thick I think I can cut through it with a knife! Pretty colors on the radar…some rotation there in the SW and over the lake, too. Everybody bunker down…we’re gonna get wet….again…. Its a good thing that I’m not standing in the middle of an open field with a bunch of heavy-duty electrical equipment all around me….unlike last evening
There is some limited rotation over nrn Erie Co PA and over the lake–none in WNY, and conditions are not favorable for anything other than intense tstorms. The vast majority of detected areas of rotation are of no real consequence.
Well over a half an inch, probably closer to an inch of rain has fallen since my last post. The creek is rising quickly, my neighbor’s ditch is full and the sides of the road are flooded. Haven’t seen it rain that hard in a while.
Starting to rain moderately here in Pendleton. I see a huge line of storms over the lake on the NWS radar that look like they will hit my area dead center of they hold together, easily an inch or so of rain out of those if they keep their form. The moderate rain is preferred as it soaks the soil more evenly and doesn’t run off into the ditches.
Round two! Its pouring again after a half hour break and now Holy Cow, its raining elephants and backhoes!
Considerable hvy rain still coming down from Warren, McKean & Potter Cos to SE Catt, Alleg, and srn Wyoming Cos. Some poor drainage flooding likely, and a Flash Flood Warning is up for McKean Co until 10:15.
Flash Flood Warning for McKean Co was extended until 1:15. State College Doppler estimates up to 4″ has fallen in some parts of the county.
00z NAM show relatively sharp cooling for Sunday, with a vigorous short wave. I dropped the high to the low 60s, though Model Output Statistics show a high of 59.
Well, my total rainfall measurement in the rain gauge was 0.57″ over the past few days, when the rain started falling on Wednesday. However, the soil is definitely nice and moist again, and the rain fell gradually over long periods of time (we had moderate rain at first, then light rain pretty much all night last night), so I think it’s safe to say that there was little to no run-off in our situation up in Niagara County. I’d much rather see 1/2″ of rain over 2 days than 1-2″ in a matter of hours, most of that rain runs off into ditches, creeks, and streams (and causes flooding), rather than actually benefiting a soil moisture deficit situation (at least that’s what I remember from my college days of Earth Science). I’m fairly sure a 1-2″ rainfall over a period of just a few hours is more than the soil can handle.
Don – I’ve seen more rainfall predicted in various forecasts for the upcoming Monday/Tuesday next week. Does the precip. outlook in your models look fairly promising for early on next week?
Please no rain until monday am!
Sharp cooling for Sunday still in the forecast. Spotty Shwrs later tonight (maybe isolated rumble of thunder) and again overnight Saturday.
Looks like some quick moving moderate/heavy rains are on the way, they’re moving Southeast over Lake Erie (from Canada) toward the Niagara region. Guess we’re not done with the rain yet…
CPC has higher than average confidence of below normal temps in our region for the 6-10 period and average confidence in a similar trend for the 8-14 day period.
The last NCEP (NWS operational HQ) 500mb mean ensemble I saw supported that trend as well.
4Warn Doppler and Lightning Detection data indicate active line of tstorms extends from north of Burlington to NE Ohio. This line is racing toward WNY and will reach Niag Co in the next few minutes, followed by Erie and Chau Cos. In the last 10 minutes, fortunately, Lightning Detection is showing a sudden reduction in the lightning, which is a sign of some weakening.
Hey Don, just to double-check, the “sharp cooling” on Sunday hopefully does not entail another frost, does it? Can’t imagine getting a frost this late, but I suppose anything is possible…
Frost isn’t likely, and on the outside chance any develops, it would be in the valleys–not Pendleton.
Very cool lightning show over Lake Ontario last night…just after 9:00…wish it would warm up though!
Downloaded the app for the iphone, its great. I can now watch Dons weathercast no matter were I am!
A cold front pushing through tonight will generate a few passing showers, giving way to a much cooler finish to the weekend tomorrow. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get out of the upper 50s in WNY. In fact a FREEZE WATCH is posted late Sunday night thru early Monday morning for Cattaraugus, Allegany, Mckean and Potter counties. Frost is likely to develop in interior valleys away from the lakes during this period. Be sure to take action to protect outdoor plants and vegetation.
Deja-vu from last night – looks like we have an IDENTICAL line of t-storms/moderate rain moving quickly across the lake, though it seems an hour earlier (than last night) this time around. Perhaps it’ll hit the Niagara region a bit harder than the line of rain that went through last night, which more or less fizzled out once it made it into our area.
A frost/freeze at this point will be devastating for some farms in the region. I was worried about Frost, though I don’t see any advisories posted for Niagara or Erie County (yet). Hopefully I won’t have to go out and buy more replacement tomato plants…
A line of showers and t-storms will continue crossing thru the region from west to east this evening ahead of a cold front that will cool us down into tomorrow. Storms contain lightning, heavy downpours and wind gusts up to near 45mph. The heaviest activity is concentrated across Niagara county, but the Buffalo metro area, southtowns and portions of the southern tier will also experience this squall line tonight.
Weather is really violent here right now – anemometer is picking up wind gusts > 35mph (trees are bent over in the winds), it’s starting to rain in sheets, and the clouds look very ominous (took photos).
Chris: Showers and t-storms will continue in your area for a while longer. Right now, there are no signs of any of these storms approaching severe limits. However, lightning is deadly, so use caution if heading outdoors and drive extra carefully in heavy downpours.
Storms are now beginning to intensify across Niagara somewhat, and also along the Lake Erie shoreline from Buffalo to Dunkirk. These storms are considered “Strong” storms and may contain some wind gusts over 45mph.
Just got home. That line is very impressive looking comming in. Winds are kicking up. Skies are turning very dark. I love this weather.
Moderate/steady downpours out here right now. We had a bit of a break after the squall line went through, but sure enough we’re in the middle of another batch of moderate to heavy rains.
Right now, 4Warn Doppler indicating a storm containing small hail over Lake Erie and approaching Dunkirk/Chautauqua Co. The threat of widespread showers and t-storms will continue into the early overnight period. However, all rain should be out of here by Sunday morning.
Picked up another 0.46″ of rain total last night in the Davis wireless rain gauge, which definitely made a dent in our rain deficit (total of 1.1″ of rain since last week). The soil is wet and mushy in spots now and my sump has been pumping out water every 30-60 minutes. No more dry soil around here any more.
Its chilly and I see that there are frost advisories for the valleys tonite. So in the Buffalo/Tonawanda/Amherst corridor we won’t need to be concerned about this?
FROST ADVISORY posted from 2am until 8am Monday for So. Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, McKean and Potter counties. Temps tonight in the valleys south of Buffalo and away from the lakes will drop into the low to mid 30s where scattered frost is likely. In and around the metro area, temps are expected to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s. A chilly night for all! Be sure to protect tender plants and vegetation.
So no frost around the metro therefore plants are OK as they sit?
Rick: The metro area is not included in the frost advisory. It will be a chilly night, but frost is not likely near the city.
Thanks.
I was surprised that Niagara County was not in the advisory area, then again, frost doesn’t discriminate where it will land, somehow I think there will be areas outside of the advisory that will see frost.
One of my thermometers is already reading 40F out in my backyard, and it’s barely 11pm, so I decided to give all my garden plants and young trees a good soaking from the hose. There was a good sign though, high clouds seem to be rolling in from the West…
No frost on Genesee Rd, near 219 in Concord. Never got below 39 degrees, and the temp has been rising since about 2 AM or so.
38.8F was the lowest temp on the thermometer last night, no frost ever formed, I think the layer of clouds was partially to thank for that. It’s June 1st, we ought to be done with this near-freezing overnight weather.
I am hoping for temperate weather for Sat, June 6th, For the Brass Ring Thing at the Herschell Carousel Museum.. The horses would really like it.. Today it has rained lightly here in Akron
NEW THREAD IS UP.