Early Hopeful Signs for Memorial Day Wknd
May 18th, 2009 at 1:59 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The peek-a-boo warmup that was in, then out, is solidly back in for Wed-Thur this week. A weak cool front will take temps back down from almost summery to seasonable for Friday into Sunday. Saturday and Sunday look comfortable and dry at this point. Monday may be a little muggier and a little shakier, with limited moisture out ahead of a trough. We’ll also be watching an area of low pressure which may take on tropical characteristics later this week in the Gulf.
Hey Don, thanks for setting that straight. Also, REALLY!!! The first POSSIBLE tropical development? Didn’t this happen last year as well, and then the tropics were real quiet until mid July or so? My memory to fine detail is horrible, but I think that may be correct. Second only to snow, the tropical season is very, very cool. Also, has there ever been a Hurrican that got very close to us, say near NYC or that area, come inland and still been rather strong?
I guess I should expand on that comment by adding rather strong and affected us? Thanks
1954’s Hurricane Hazel moved inland over the Carolina, and gradually became a ferocious extratropical storm–producing NYC’s highest ever gust of 113 mph. It crossed Lk Ontario not too far east of Rochester, and brought Toronto 90 mph gusts. Along with its flooding, 81 people died in the Toronto area.
Yikes! I guess we are not averse to that someday. That surge had to be incredible. If we had 90 mph gusts around here on a sw trajectory, I can only imagine…
With pretty decent weather lined up this week, here are the viewing times for the International Space Station through May 26th. If you haven’t seen it yet, check it out! The times and locations are very accurate.
ISS Mon May 18/10:16 PM 2 minutes 14 above N 10 above NE
ISS Mon May 18/11:52 PM < 1 minute 21 above NNW 21 above NNW
ISS Tue May 19/09:07 PM 2 minutes 14 above N 11 above NNE
ISS Tue May 19/10:42 PM 2 minutes 18 above N 15 above NE
ISS Wed May 20/12:16 AM < 1 minute 10 above WNW 10 above WNW
ISS Wed May 20/09:33 PM 2 minutes 14 above N 10 above NE
ISS Wed May 20/11:08 PM < 1 minute 26 above NNW 34 above N
ISS Thu May 21/09:59 PM 3 minutes 18 above N 10 above ENE
ISS Thu May 21/11:32 PM 1 minute 10 above WNW 25 above WNW
ISS Fri May 22/10:24 PM 2 minutes 27 above NNW 28 above ENE
ISS Sat May 23/09:15 PM 3 minutes 17 above NNW 10 above ENE
ISS Sat May 23/10:49 PM 2 minutes 20 above WNW 68 above WSW
ISS Sun May 24/09:41 PM 3 minutes 28 above NNW 13 above E
ISS Sun May 24/11:15 PM < 1 minute 11 above W 15 above W
ISS Mon May 25/10:06 PM 2 minutes 31 above WNW 30 above SE
ISS Tue May 26/10:31 PM 2 minutes 11 above W 18 above SW
Another frosty night is in store for the region. With clear skies, a dry air mass and light winds, temps will drop rapidly after sunset. Be sure to take action to protect plants and vegetation.
A FROST ADVISORY is posted from 1am until 8am Tuesday for No. Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans counties.
A FREEZE WARNING is in effect from 1am until 8am Tuesday for So. Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany counties and McKean and Potter counties, PA.
M.B.
How common is this cold weather this late in the season? We have to be getting mighty close to the last frost date in Buffalo, correct?
This morning’s low was one degree shy of a record. Being this cold this late is nowhere near unprecedented, however.
Any chance of snow for memorial day Don? I could go for about 4′ and no visiblilty!
Mr.Don,
Seems like quite a pleasant stretch, through the next 6 days after tonight. Will thi shard freeze screw up agriculture so that farmers have to re-plant or will most be okay?
this hard*
Does WIVB have a Doppler Radar Tower at their Station or do you use the NWS’s Doppler Radar?
We have our own Doppler, but we have a far superior display system which runs off the NWS 88-D radar. Its advantages over other WNY television display systems are many. First of all, the WSR 88-D is unquestionably the most powerful and highest resolution weather radar in WNY. Secondly, we can work with a set of proprietary algorithms developed by a group of former Nat’l Severe Storms Laboratory scientists, or the NWS algorithms. The algorithms are used to detect and locate such elements as hail, probable hail size, mesocyclones (areas of rotation in tstorms), tornado vortex signatures and their paths and forward velocity–just as a few examples. We also have access to realtime lightning detection data, which is an important tool to help meteorologists determine whether or not tstorms are intensifying or weakening, and what kind of threat to public safety is posed by the storms.
No algorithm is foolproof, and meteorologists should not be overly dependent on them to detect and locate severe weather. However, having them is MUCH better than not having them. The other private sector radar seen on WNY television does not have these capabilities.(Our algorithms and the NWS algorithms are updated frequently as new research evolves).
With all these capabilities, there is no need to use our rooftop Doppler any longer.
Don…thanks for the update…please don’t change the forecast for the weekend, unless you upgrade to “summery”!!!
No big changes from the 18z runs and newer run of the Euro. Saturday and Sunday still looking pretty solid, but Memorial Day looks like a trough could bring us some Sct Shwrs by afternoon, though it will still be warm.
SW flow tonight will keep metro area temps and regions on the Lk Erie plain (lower elevations) milder than last night (about 40 near the Lk). Still plenty of frost and freeze conditions further inland, where the SW flow will be “decoupled” from the surface, and radiational cooling will continue unimpeded.
Just got back from Jamaica everyone! 85 degrees during day and sunny, 75 at night and nice. Come back to 30 degrees, horrible! I am booking my flight tomorrow to go back.
Horrible? A little over the top, Richard.
Hope your honeymoon was excellent!
Looks like my area dodged the frost this morning (and we’re inland in Pendleton). There was a thin layer of clouds present and the temp was 42F at about 6:30am (right as the sun started to rise). Relieved because a number of the small sapling trees in my yard (which are fully bloomed out) do not appear to like the frosts as it blackens some of the leaves and causes some wilting. They should recover though in the warmer weather over the next few days. Is it safe to say that we’re done with frost at this point? I don’t remember the last time we had frost this late in May.
no frost this morning here in S. Cheektowaga, either… thankfully! Hopefully thats the last time we hear the “f” word for a while!!!
Last night’s SSW wind helped save wrn Erie and wrn Niag Cos from frost, which we emphasized last night and a few posts back here on the Blog. Further inland, there was plenty to go around again. While any more frost on the Niag Frontier is out of the question into early next week, and PROBABLY not likely again this season, the GFS and some of its ensemble members do show some fairly sharp cooling later next week.
Newest model runs suggest a springlike rather than summerlike Memorial Day weekend (upper 60s instead of low 70s). On the other hand, the weekend now looks more solidified as the AM runs have greatly diminished any threat of shwrs for Monday.
Hi Don
Around here, forecast of 83 F tomorrow and 85 tomorrow inland from Georgian Bay/Lake Simcoe.
I know the temps will roll back a tad after Thursday, but will the next two days of heat also include conditions that are more ‘muggified’ or is it a dry airmass with lots of heat and sunshine?
tx
Pretty dry airmass, barrie1.
Mr.Don,
Do you see a drought or low water issue with it being so dry so early? I know it is very early but i can’t imagine this being a good thing now, especially if it persists.
If June and July were as dry as May has been so far, it could be a problem. It’s impossible to know if that’s going to be the case. At this early point, though, it’s not a critical problem.
I remember last year May was pretty dry also. Then June came around and it rained excessively throughout most of last Summer (at least in Niagara county). My backyard is very flat and the standing water finally dried up a day or two ago, was relieved to have been able to get the lawnmower through those wet areas.
We did receive some rain this past weekend, so it doesn’t seem like “drought” is on anyone’s minds yet. My digital weather station has measured a total of 1.5″ of rain so far for the month of May, it does seem below average but we still have a couple of weeks left in May to catch up. Not looking good for rain any time within the next 3-5 days though – looks like various forecasts are giving us a 30% chance for rain on Friday, and a 40% chance on Monday. Then again, last year, whenever the chance of rain was > 20%, rain seemed inevitable.
Chris; I don’t know where you’re getting some of your info on POPS, but it’s off base. Your subjective statement about >20% and rain is absolutely off base.
There is nothing to support a 30% POP for Friday (though a sprinkle wouldn’t be impossible early in the day–and even that’s quite unlikely).
POPS for next Monday sure aren’t in the NWS forecast. As for mine, the 18z GFS is again trying to sneak showers back into the s tier–which is a flip flop from the 12z which kept even the s tier dry. I’m leaving us dry for now, until I see a couple of more runs.
Sorry if I was tough on you, Chris. However, on this blog I’d like to expect evidence to back up claims, rather than hyperbole. There have been some cases where I couldn’t imagine how someone could have actually seen or heard something the poster claimed, and then I found out I was incorrect. I did find a 20% POP for Friday in the NWS gridded forecast–which is kind of a statistical hedge based on the proximity of a dissolving front and very limited moisture….kind of a scientifically CYA forecast (I’ve made some of those myself), but the POP isn’t in the zone forecast. There’s no listed POP for Monday until after dark. However, the flip-flopped GFS does try to bring moisture into the s tier Monday afternoon. In my own CYA mode, I verbally mentioned that Monday’s afternoon dryness is “not a lock.” I don’t want to flip-flop with each and every model run, so on that point I’ll wait until I see Wednesday’s 06 and 12z runs before I consider reinserting showers as a possibility.
But, I have to say that “>20%= rain” remark is hyperbole, pure and simple.
Not nasty or rude, just unsubstantiated hype.
Sorry, Don. I should’ve posted the link. I was referring to the 10-day outlook on weather.com (which I check daily along with other forecasts around the web, including wivb.com – I was just averaging out what I saw from a number of different forecasts). Regarding the 20% rain remark, that was sarcasm – last Summer, whenever a 20% chance of rain (or greater) was forecasted, it seemed like we got nailed every time, so that was just a figure of speech.
Remember all the hail last year? Yeah, we saw a lot of that also, have some small dents in my car as a reminder…
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/14094?from=36hr_topnav_business
Then again, you might pull this link up an hour or two from now and the precip. probability may have changed. Currently (as I’m viewing the 10-day outlook for the Lockport area), Friday is slated for 30% POP and Monday 40%. 10 days is way too far out to be accurate, so I don’t take the weather.com forecasts with a grain of salt by any means, but rain does seem favorable for next week in other forecasts as well.
Apologize if I came off as if I was contradicting your forecast – I know you’re going by the scientific models and I’m certain your forecast for the next 3-4 days will be much more reliable than others.
Thanks Don, the trip was amazing, stayed at a 5 star resort, it was a castle! It was interesting weather there. The 8 days I was there, it rained 3 days for a few hours each day. It never rained in the morning or at night, only in the heat of the afternoon between 2-5. When you wake up in the morning through the course of the day you can notice the clouds and thunderstorms gathering over the mountains, Jamaica has lots of them. It never got extremely hot, being so close to the equator, the suns angle was at 90 degrees, directly over head, something I have never seen before. It was around 84-88 during day and 70-75 at night. Probably did not get any warmer because it being an island? The weather was quite different from here. But the trip was awesome, and its nice to be back here, looking like nice weather right through the weekend. =)
Chris,
TWC has some good people, make no mistake. But their Local on the 8’s product, in my opinion, has suffered greatly since they abandoned the NWS zone forecast and went to their own product–which has insufficient human input to match the NWS forecast.
NAM and GFS operational 12 runs are trying to run some very limited moisture into the region for later Friday and Saturday, which would tend to make more cloud cover in the higher terrain. I’m not in a CYA mode–yet–so I’m leaving out any chance for a few stray lt shwrs at this point. The signals are just too weak.
Don…what is the wind going to be like for the weekend? Is the wind more intense this year, or am I just imagining this?
The winds will be mostly from the NE this weekend, probably in the general range of 10-15 mph.
The winds were more intense this winter, but have been typical during the spring. Due to differential heating over the cooler Lk Erie sfc and the heated landmass, we always have windy days with a SW flow in the metro area and across parts of the Niagara Frontier. The warm air over the land rises, and the cooler air over the lake rushes in to “replace” it. This effect is more pronounced when there’s already a good pressure gradient in place.
Since fairly nice weather is lined up for the rest of the week going into the holiday weekend, here’s the URL you can cut and paste on your browser indicating the viewing times for the International Space Station in the Buffalo region. Enjoy, folks!
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/view.cgi?country=United_States®ion=New_York&city=Buffalo
I posted earlier that I wasn’t in a CYA mode-yet-for later Friday and Saturday. I am now. The NAM and GFS operational runs have been consistent in bringing limited moisture into WNY in those time periods. With the proximity of a stalled front to our south, I now have to put in a slight chance for a few showers into the higher terrain and nrn PA; there may be just enough lift for some isolated weak convection. Overall, it’s still a pretty solid holiday wknd forecast, but not entirely glitch-free for Fri or Sat.
Mr.Don,
It seems like the country is abnormally quiet for May in terms of thunderstorms. Is this out of the ordinary to see so little activity across the Eastern third of the country in May? Seems to me like the mid-west is really lucking out, especially with how active early May was. To note: I haven’t seen the SPC have no svr. thunderstorms forecasted for days 2 and 3 and potiental too low for 4-8 day outlooks, seems weird.
Even in busier seasons, there are lulls. “Lucking out” is not exactly the language for severe weather outbreaks, but I think you know that. Climatologically, the Great Lakes tend to have their highest chances for severe weather from late May into June–MOST years. Too early to tell how things will go as we get closer to this most favored period, but historical records for late May into early and mid June are pretty startling in some years.
So, yes, it’s quiet right now–but that’s not “weird.”
Just as a few examples of severe wx climatology in the Great Lakes and nearby regions. May 31, 1985: an F4 and an F5 in NW PA. Super outbreak in ern Ohio, nrn PA, upstate NY and southern Ontario. More than 80 deaths, including 22 in Albion PA, not far from Erie (none in WNY largely due to chilly Lk Erie breeze).
1998: Multiple derechoes and severe tstorm outbreaks May 30-31, with 2 damaging outbreaks here on May 31, followed on June 2 by an F2 tornado in Wyoming county which produced some significant property damage.
June 7 and 8th, 1953. An estimated F5 tornado killed 116 people near Flint MI on the 7th. The next day, the same low pressure system produced another violent tornado which killed another 94 people near Worcester, MA. 2 of the deadliest tornadoes in US history, and nowhere near “tornado alley.”
These are a few of many examples of severe wx outbreaks in the Great Lakes in this time period.
Don,
I remember the last tornado to hit the “cheektowaga alley” (HA) in 2005 and I remember watching that storm build all morning long. That was an ominous looking storm and one I won’t forget. Also, with that said, is it coincidence that two tornados struck generally the same area or is there more to it than that?
I thought it was interesting that during the super outbreak in 1974 a small tornado touched down in Frewsburg right here in western New York.
It may not have been coincidence. On both the 1987 and 2005 tornado days, we had particular conditions in place on a very small scale in which convergence between a SW flow off the lake and a more NWly mean flow may have spun up some helicity in the local atmosphere (see earlier posts in the last thread–don’t have time to reexplain that property)that induced well-defined rotation in a thunderstorm in that convergence zone. I may be a little off in my recollection. But both days would not have been expected, during the earlier part of the day, to be severe weather days, let alone days with a tornado potential. However, we mets hopefully add these events to our individual library of pattern recognition, so that similar synoptic and mesoscale conditions may trigger more attention in the future–hopefully.
I remember my parents and I driving through that area in NW PA (I have family with a cabin outside Corry, PA, not far from where the large Tornado hit) devastated by that F4/F5 tornado back in 1985 (I was 7 yrs old at the time). Even though that event was many years ago, I do specifically recall seeing bathtubs in trees and homes absolutely obliterated. A line of traffic was driving through the site of destruction on that day (in NW PA), it was an incredible sight. Also remember the tornado leaving a destruction path nearly 1 mile wide, though maybe that is exaggerated since things always look larger as a kid.
Ha! I remember when that wall cloud rolled by my window in ‘05. I tuned into the weather and there were no warnings until after it passed by..I remember thinking “ok no warning…I guess we’ll wait for debris before we head into the basement” but there was no debris…it touched down for the first time about 4 miles from where I was. Thank goodness it was only an F0… yet again, these specific mesoscale dynamics that occurred in this and a few other particular instances are enough to spin up a “nader” yet not a very large one at that, If I’m understanding these dynamics correctly…
Actually, the tornado occurred on June 30, 2006, not 2005.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/LakeBreeze/Summer2006.pdf
I found the above link to the NWS Lake Breeze newsletter, which summarizes the development and damage of this tornado, which was an F1. Its winds were estimated at 100 mph, with a damage path 75 yards wide, at times.
My recollection of the atmospheric setup which I posted last evening was correct. I’m not “losing it”-yet!
I obviously am (losing it) I thought the storm was 2005, oh well. Don with those potential dynamics, is that enough to produce a rare f3 or higher tornado?
By the way, I still marvel at the tree trunk behind Redlinskis meats each time I pass by to go to Home Depot. Th tree is just twisted and it is amazing how wind can do that.
thinksnow; the answer is no.
The State DEC has issued an Air Quality Alert for WNY until 1am Friday.
My subjective response: I doubt ozone levels will reach their predicted excessive point, and I don’t think it’s a good call. The high pressure ridge is not particularly stagnant, nor will it be today. While 03 is quite invisible, its production generally increases when other pollutants produce a visible haze layer. If you see a notable haze layer later this afternoon, then you’ll know I should have kept my mouth shut.
My other subjective response: I have a problem when government bureaucracies and agencies like the American Lung Association tend to overstate our pollution problem, and don’t provide context as to how much our air quality has improved since the passage of the Clean Air Act. There is no doubt that ozone presents a hazard, particularly to elderly people with chronic heart and lung disease, asthmatics, and infants. My doubt is in the potential overprediction which may be occurring here.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html
Here is a public press statement on the just-released NOAA hurricane outlook for this year. More uncertainty than in recent years, say they.
Signs have again become more favorable for some need rain getting in here by Tue into part of Wednesday.