Early Hopeful Signs for Memorial Day Wknd
May 18th, 2009 at 1:59 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The peek-a-boo warmup that was in, then out, is solidly back in for Wed-Thur this week. A weak cool front will take temps back down from almost summery to seasonable for Friday into Sunday. Saturday and Sunday look comfortable and dry at this point. Monday may be a little muggier and a little shakier, with limited moisture out ahead of a trough. We’ll also be watching an area of low pressure which may take on tropical characteristics later this week in the Gulf.
Thanks, Don, that is good news (re: rain). I’ve had to water my lawn and trees almost daily lately as the soil really seems to be drying out. One thing I’ve always wondered – at which point is dry weather deemed officially a “drought”? Does it have to do specifically with how much rainfall is measured over the course of a month, or does it take quite a long trend of dry weather (i.e. 2-3 months of well below average precip.)?
Hard to believe it is 25 years next week since the tornado outbreak of May 31st, 1985.
I wasn’t living in this community at the time, but it was an F4 tornado that devestated sections of this city killing nine people. It struck around 4pm.
Again, it was a muggy and hot day. If memory serves, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued earlier in the day but some radio station’s dropped it because it was early afternoon and NOTHING had happened and the sky was a mix of sun and cloud.
I know Environment Canada has been concerned about the number of radio station’s in the country, and not all are in small/medium markets, that rely on voicetrack or satellite in late afternoon or especially evening—so weather warnings that are issued don’t reach the local community–because nobody is actually LIVE in the studio. I appreciate internet is available, but there are people who RELY on radio for weather bulletins too. Don’t know Don if such concerns have been raised by you or other professionals in the business of weather when it comes to WNY. I guess it is a case of messaging. I know radio is just one source. Can local weather offices go on Facebook or Twitter and issue weather bulletins? I know our local weather network has Eblasts to people who sign up. Thoughts?
Chris,
While there are differing definitions for drought, it generally takes several months for drought to develop. What we have now in many parts of WNY is merely shallow deficient soil moisture, with deeper layers adequately moist and water tables okay.
barrie1, I do have concerns about many radio stations making no effort to assume a responsibility to disseminate NWS warnings. In television, we now have an automatically activated EAS crawl which airs when a severe weather warning is issued. The FCC’s administrative law code does not require that stations air warnings. It does require, though, that once a station elects to run crawls that they must be aired with consideration for the hearing impaired, with aural tones, and the like. I don’t know why congress and the FCC haven’t revamped the law to require everyone to air warnings, but so far they haven’t.
As usual, I can’t speak for the NWS, but they do not have statutory authority to broadcast bulletins except through NOAA Weather Radio. I don’t know that their workload would allow for timely Facebook or Twitter updates. Personally, I’d like to see the NOAA weather band mandatory in all car audio systems.
Your last point is very interesting.
I had read Environment Canada was looking at a system where weather bulletins could be plugged into radio station broadcasts that are voice tracked or have satellite programming but I don’t think anything came of it.
In my community, if there is a weather bulletin issued after 7pm, good luck on hearing it on any radio station. The tv station does crawl but not everyone is watching! I think it is an abdication of responsibility to the listening public and should be part of any station’s licence requirements to provide that information. I am not saying a tragedy could happen because the public wasn’t informed, but I would never rule it out. tx for answering.
Lake vs land breeze. Yesterday, Duluth went from 46 to 86 in 40 minutes!
Rainfall potential for Tue night into Wed in the latest runs and ensembles looks pretty impressive. Let’s hope this trend continues in the Euro and GFS.
Never saw any haze layer in the metro area, so I think what I said about Air Quality Alert was reasonably correct. Any of our srn tier bloggers see much haze late today? (Again, ozone is invisible. But in stagnation situations with elevated 03, there is usually a haze layer with other pollutants trapped near the sfc, and a good inversion aloft. There’s an inversion developing tonight, but that’s after dark.
I didn’t notice any haze from my school (I can see about 2 or 3 miles out from some classrooms) yesterday. Chautauqua Lake was a beautiful, at times glassy, deep blue too…
Hey Don -
Does the rain for Tuesday into Wednesday look like a widespread event (covering most if all of the viewing area)? Do you think there is the potential for 1″+?
Thanks, Lakewood.
Chris, yesterday it looked like widespread, potentially soaking rain. Just beginning my analysis now, so I’ll have to get back to you on that later.
Helpful Showers look likely mainly on Wednesday next week, but definitely not looking as impressive/soaking as in last evening’s guidance.
Post-frontal clouds increasing from the north this afternoon, but still some sunshine to be had. Limited Sun on a warm and mainly dry Saturday, but there is still a small chance for Isolated convection mainly later in the day and in the evening.
Sunday looks like clouds will thin on the Niag Frontier, with plenty sun returning for the afternoon, but those clouds will be much more stubborn in the hilly terrain to the south. Memorial Day looks sunnier.
Thanks to our viewers…News 4 Buffalo has widened its lead in the latest May ratings sweep in nearly all newscasts over our nearest competitor, and we’re grateful for your continuing support in boosting our margin of audience dominance. Bragging done–back to weather!
Hope everyone has a nice Holiday weekend. Sounds like the weather will be decent.
NHC has increased the chances for the extratropical low in the Gulf to become a tropical depression or cyclone from <30/% to between 30 & 50%. Convection near the center of the circulation is becoming a bit more organized. A recon flight will examine the system tomorrow if it continues to show signs of strengthening.
Showers next week may be slower to get here and slower to leave. Newest guidance suggests our ridge will hang tough into Tuesday night, and Shwrs won’t start to develop-gradually-until during the day on Wednesday, and probably become more numerous for Thursday. The GFS even shows them hanging in until early Friday, before skies clear.
If that holds true I would think the 2-3 days of rain would take care of the deficiency of soil moisture. Saw this morning that other weather forecasts (such as TWC) are in agreement with you.
Any more info regarding the isolated T-Storms predicted for today? Will those primarily be confined to the Southern Tier?
I’m not working today, Chris. But any low chance convection today will be well to the SE, closer to the state line. Nothing your way. Have a good holiday, folks, and let’s all please remember our fallen veterans.
Carl: A cold front is approaching WNY this evening, giving away to a “milky” look to the sky with high clouds moving in.
It’s 8:15am and pouring rain in Pendleton right now. Not even showing up on radar but it’s definitely coming down in buckets out here…
Very astute observation from marinecore earlier this past week on the lack of severe wx in the last 10 days or so.
Here’s a link from NOAA/NWS with some amazing stats and a good explanation:
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2009/05/1137/
And this quiet period is especially ironic and disruptive for a massive NOAA/university tornado research project now run aground due to this pattern. The study is called vortex2, and would have involved large scale storm chasing. Some mets are saying the project should be put aside for a couple of weeks. The problem with that is the statistical likelihood of major central/srn plains outbreaks goes down as we move toward June and summer.
Tx for posting that piece Don on the lack of severe weather.
It has been the same in Canada. Severe thunderstorms have been virtually non-existant. And we get some whoppers in May across Ontario, Quebec and the Prairies. Matter of fact, thunderstorms period have been hard to come by this month. While we’ve had a few warm days ’round here(qualify warm as 81 Farh or more), can’t recall a single day where it has been muggy.
Won’t complain about days like this!
Picture perfect weather tonight to view the International Space Station at 9:40pm and 11:15pm. For more details, check out the blog posting on the ISS. Weatherwise, it’ll be mostly clear with cool temps dropping into the 40s and 50s. Sunshine is back for the holiday tomorrow with low humidity and comfortable high temps close to 70. Enjoy folks!
Another beautiful night is in store for the region. Look for mainly clear skies and cool overnight lows in the 40s. Soggy changes are lined up for tomorrow. Showers will spread from south to north in the afternoon on Tuesday. Wet weather will stick around through Thursday. This will help to put a dent in our rainfall deficit of nearly 2 inches for the month of May.
After a 9 day stretch of 70 percent sunshine or more here in WNY, local weather is about to make a big turnaround. A storm system lifting north from the Mid-Atlantic will spread rain into WNY from south to north, with rain arriving first Tuesday morning across the southern tier and advancing north toward the metro area into the afternoon and evening. Showers may become more persistent later Tuesday night into early Wednesday with humidity kicking up a notch into midweek. Hit or miss showers and t-storms will be around on a somewhat muggy Wednesday and will continue into Thursday before tapering early Friday.
After this weekend of great weather, any idea of what the summer may look like for us? I know weather changes regulary with different systems developing, but I thought NOAA or NWS gives a long range forecast for different regions.
Thanks.
There is a national outlook on the Climate Prediction Center website. It is not broken down regionally.
Trends to make a summer outlook are weak, particularly for precipitation.
NEW THREAD IS UP.