Comments on: Early Signs Point to another Unsettled Weekend

By: z

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 01:03:35 +0000

test3

By: z

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 01:02:24 +0000

test2

By: z

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 00:46:02 +0000

test

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Mon, 18 May 2009 18:08:33 +0000

Chris; The Climate Prediction Ctr (part of NOAA/NWS) give us slightly better than even odds for warmer than average conditions mid/late summer. There is nothing in particular anyone can hang a hat on for the the overall trend for this summer, in all honesty, particularly in the realm of precipitation–no strong signals from nature. I should remind you we’re not on the east coast, and Atlantic sea sfc temperatures have far less effect in WNY than they do closer to the coast. As for the frost’s effect on your trees, I recommend you contact your county Cornell Extension Office–that’s more their bailiwick, Chris.

thinksnow; the temporary flip-flop I saw last week had nothing to do with how “forecasting in this region is difficult.” It was connected with flip-flops in 2 models. I began reinstating some warmth for the middle of this week back on my Friday casts. That warming became more impressive in the wknd guidance.

NEW THREAD IS NOW UP.

By: Thinksnow09

Thinksnow09 — Mon, 18 May 2009 16:07:54 +0000

M.B.

I was referring to the post Don sent last Friday, (The day before the forecast flopped the other way again) For this coming Thus and the upcoming holiday w/e. I brought it up not to cause any problems, it just seemed that only a half a day earlier, Don seemed pretty confident….The significant midweek warming for next week I’d been talking about looks like it will be put aside. The Euro, which had been something of an outlier in dropping the jet and a trough further south into the ern Grt Lks now looks like it will rule the roost–with a few lt shwrs Wed, and highs only from the upper 50s north to low 60s near PA. The GFS seems to have joined forces with the Euro this morning. Hints of a coolish Saturday to start the holiday wknd, with moderating temps on Sun-Mon. Not summerlike, but mild enough. See How much that all changed in a 12 to 18 hour period? It was just kinda odd to me that is all. I know forecasting in this region is difficult and can be

By: Chris from Pendleton

Chris from Pendleton — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:32:48 +0000

Just wanted to know what the effect of the recent Frosts will have on my young trees. I have a lot of newly planted trees around my yard, all survived the Winter, but the frosts are a bit concerning as the leaves seem to wilt a bit on my smaller saplings (Poplars, Maples, oaks, etc.), even though the last time around they bounced back after a few days.

Additionally, is there any data available on what this Summer will look like? Will it be wet/cool like last Summer again? I know last year I measured 7″ of rain for the month of July, and over 6″ for August (in Pendleton). I know farmers around Niagara county had issues with some crops as a result. I was told awhile back that the Atlantic Oceans temps play a big role along the East coast – from what I can recall, cooler than average Atlantic temps generally spell wetter weather over the summer since the air tends to rise over the land and sink over the cooler ocean, and when the Atlantic warms, it suppresses rain/t-storms because the air sinks over land but rises over the warmer Atlantic waters. Not sure if I’m on track with this recollection but would be interested to hear the scoop from the talented WIVB meteorologists…

By: Mary Beth Wrobel

Mary Beth Wrobel — Mon, 18 May 2009 02:30:51 +0000

Sunday is looking fine right now with temps in the 70s. However, the models are indicating a few disturbances located in the Northeast and MidAtlantic moving closer to WNY toward the end of the holiday weekend. It’s still a long way out, and it’s impossible to pinpoint at this time. As I’ve mentioned before, long range guidance is best at showing trends as opposed to specific weather events.

By: snowlover

snowlover — Mon, 18 May 2009 01:55:51 +0000

mb or don

im having a outside party either next sunday or monday witch day is looking better?

By: Mary Beth Wrobel

Mary Beth Wrobel — Sun, 17 May 2009 20:42:41 +0000

Thinksnow: Can you be more specific about what day you’re talking about? Generally speaking, long forecasts do get modified, since they typically indicate trends and not specific weather events.

By: Mary Beth Wrobel

Mary Beth Wrobel — Sun, 17 May 2009 19:34:05 +0000

FREEZE WARNING posted for So. Erie, Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Allegany, McKean and Potter counties, PA late tonight thru early Monday morning. FROST ADVISORY issued for Northern Erie, Niagara, Orleans and Genesee counties late tonight thru early Monday. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to plummet into the 20s and 30s across the region tonight. Widely scattered frost will develop rapidly in areas away from the lakes. You are strongly urged to protect tender plants and vegetation.