Early Signs Point to another Unsettled Weekend
May 11th, 2009 at 1:47 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
After a second frosty night on Monday night and still some valley frost the next night, a nice warmup will arrive on a downslope wind Wednesday, with temps jumping into at least the low 70s. Much later Wed night, another vigorous storm system passing to our north will bring a round of Shwrs & Tstorms, followed by Windy and Showery conditions on Thursday–possibly quite windy. Drier air arrives late Thur through Fri night, but another low and its warm front may bring us a few periods of Shwrs & Tshwrs for parts of Saturday, and a nearly stalled front to our SE may allow for some more Sct Shwrs on Sunday, especially to the SE.
Don,
I live in Fredonia and I’ve already de-winterized my RV for the season and put fresh water in the tanks. Now I’m concerned. Will this freeze tonight be bad enough to require me to keep heat on in the RV all night?
Thank you!
No.
More than 829,300 calls to the 25 lines of Channel 4 Weatherline in April, and 846,000 in March–well over 3 million for the year so far. Older technology that still serves our audience very, very well.
don
does saturday seem to be a all day rain
Snowlover: Not an all day rain–we may begin dry, and then see an increase in SCT Shwrs & Tshwrs with mild temperatures. Sunday in newest runs is now looking cooler and drier–I’ve left the chance of a shower in the fcst, but we could get thru Sunday with dry conditions.
Susan: Your RV is safe in Fredonia–your too close to Lk Erie to worry about a freeze.
Make that “you’re,” not “your”, Susan.
Who determines that the “growing season” hasn’t started in Wyoming County yet? And for this reason won’t issue a freeze/frost warning for Wyoming Cattaraugus, Allegheny Counties? Would this brain surgeon please inform my fruit orchard, strawberries, asparagus, garlic, grapes, flowers that they can’t start blooming yet (too late), because some nit wit hasn’t proclaimed the official start of the “growing season”? You’re kidding right?
BTW, Don, Thank you for explaining why the three previous mentioned counties were not shaded in blue.
The “nitwits” are the NWS, who rely on climatological norms such as average last killing frost dates and other perfectly acceptable scientific climatological factors to determine the start of the growing season. These factors are used over the majority of the United States, particularly north of the Mason-Dixon line, and are tied to local climate records. The rules that these criteria be followed are set at regional and national headquarters. All NWS offices in regions in which a cold weather season occurs observe local climate norms to determine such things. Part of the rationale is the avoidance of overwarning. I.E., most fruit orchards are near the Lakes and not in Wyoming County. Their growth is typically more advanced than any orchards which might be in your neck of the woods at this time of the year, and more vulnerable to frost–although those adjacent to the lakeshores are at much lower risk.
The weatherline is a great thing. I don’t always have access to a computer.Thanks for it,Don, and the detailed forecasts that can be found there.
You’re welcome EEED.
More than a few of those Weatherline calls came from my house! I’m glad WIVB is still committed to a little old-school technology. It’s been hard to stay up late enough to catch the 11:00 broadcast, and I’m too busy getting everyone up and going in the morning to catch Wake Up. I couldn’t even tell you if my Sox won yesterday!
Don:
Any idea of a time frame for rain on Saturday in the Clarence Area?
Dawn,
There’s no way to time precipitation for Clarence at this point. It looks like Sct Shwrs & Tshwrs rather than a steady rain.
Don….I know it’s early, but any even general trends for next weekend?(Memorial Day)….
Thanks for your reply, Don. My reason for wanting to know if a freeze warning is imminent not only applies to plants but also equipment as well. IE: RVs, pressure washers, outdoor plumbing, etc., that is normally outside this time of year. Not to mention Mother’s day has passed and many a flower basket hang outside. I realize most orchards are along the Lakes, but there are many fruit orchards and produce farms located in the interior of WNY. I don’t think it would be to much to ask if our “neck of the woods” would be included in such warnings. It would be a greater service to warn people of events like this, rather than find out after the fact. NWS gospel or not.
I can’t speak any more for the NWS. On the other hand, anyone listening to the forecast would have been aware of the threat of freezing temperatures from the predicted low temperatures.
Outdoor plumbing would hardly be affected by an hour or 2 of barely subfreezing temperatures, nor would RVs. Outdoor plants are another story.
Storm watcher–nothing useful for Memorial Day wknd yet. The only thing I would eliminate is a genuine heat wave, though it may still be comfortably warm.
Great opportunities to see the Int’l Space Station this evening. At 9:13, approaching from the WSW–a 6 minute viewing. Then, at 10:49, from the WNW–4 minutes. Clear skies.
Storm watcher; There are early hints of a warm start to the Memorial Day wknd. That’s all I can dare say at this point–trying to predict precip in this time range is a pointless exercise.
This weekend, Saturday will be unsettled, as previously forecast, but Sunday looks mostly if not completely dry with some sun and chilly temps–near 55. Can’t rule out some frost again Sunday night.
Hey Don,
I know it is rather early, well by standards of this comment, but I sense a similar trend up to this point of the season so far as compared to this time last year. It has not been overly warm with the exception of that stretch of 80’s (some low 90’s well inland) during the end of April, was very similar to last year, then we were not quite that warm for a while, kinda like now…any thoughts? Last year did not turn out too hot for us and I am hoping for a repeat.
While we haven’t had many “almost hot” days, we have been warmer than average much of the time. Lake Erie has been ahead of schedule in its warming for several weeks, and that doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
I have no thoughts on how the summer’s going to go. The CPC gives us slightly better than even odds for a warmer than average mid to late summer. It’s a weak signal, and I haven’t mentioned it on the air for that reason.
Don, 1st thanks for the response, quick as always. 2nd, do you have any info pertaining to the safety of our beaches in the summertime? I am 34 yrs old, and while my memory is pretty sharp, it seems more recently the lake bacteria levels are much more prominent than in the past. what factors in to this reaction after rainfall?
As far as I know, it’s mostly related to rainfall and runoff. Whether or not there are other factors such as aging sewage treatment facilities involved in these problems, I think the primary factor is still heavier rainfall.
Thinksnow and Don,
Have the bacteria levels really been that much higher in recent years? I don’t have that info handy so I don’t know. I do know Don is right about runoff. Heavy rains cause sewage to overflow. (yuk) I was told that NYS has higher standards than local municipalities or private beaches. Ever since the opening of Woodlawn State Park, high bacteria levels have been more publicized because NYS is quick to close the beach. Don’t know how much truth there is to that, but just a thought.
Operational GFS and ensemble runs continue to hint of a seasonably warm Memorial Day weekend. Precipitation at this time range is useless.
Tx for the update Don.
Environment Canada has our area with a high of only 48 F on sunday and low 50’s Toronto. Wonder if that’ll change.
EC has quarter to an inch of rain for overnight into tomorrow morning. Do you see much convection with this system in your area? Cloud shield just beginning to roll in with a brisk breeze. Nice day all around.
Folks in Ont. have a long weekend coming up too,so fingers are crossed up here.
Don,
Sorry—another question!
Is there any reason the U-S has not gone to the metric system in terms of Farh and Cel. for temperature.
I don’t think it is a big deal, but I know some radio stations in Southwest Ont give both Cel and Farh, probably because of proximity to the border.
I tell my kids(8 and 11) it is going to be 75 degrees today and I get a blank stare. I tell them it is going to be 24 and they break out the shorts and t’s.
Have a good afternoon!
Some limited convection here…you’ll closer to the low and may get more.
Celsius just doesn’t seem to go over in this country, at least not without force feeding. For awhile in the 60s or 70s, there was pressure to switch, but Yanks can be mighty stubborn! Not gonna happen anytime soon, I would bet.
As usual with a downslope wind, strongest gusts will be on the hilltops and along the Lk Erie shore south of Buffalo into Thursday AM. Widespread svr weather is unlikely, but there’s a slight chance of an isolated strong Tstorm Thursday AM. More Sct Shwrs & Tstorms return for Saturday, ahead of a Drier but Unseasonably Cool Sunday. There are hints of an almost Muggy pattern by Wed night into next Friday, with mild temps persisting into the holiday wknd.
Mr.Don,
The NWS really thinks there is a possibilty of severe thunderstorms on Saturday, what are your thoughts?
The helicity mentioned in their Area Forecast Discussion is related to directional wind shear with increase altitude. That is, the low level winds will be somewhat more southerly in the early part of the day, veering to WSWly with height. That type of shear can enhance the possibility of supercells and rotational storms. Limiting factors Saturday will be a good deal of cloud cover–though the atmosphere will be warm at the sfc in any case, and marginal jet stream dynamics. The SPC sees no measurable risk. Last evening at 6, I mentioned “we’ll have to watch some of these storms.” Bottom line in my mind: a Slight Risk. As the day progresses, the directional shear diminishes, so the helicity will go down as well.
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/svr/modl/fcst/params/hel.rxml
The link above presents a good explanation of the property of helicity. If you have Quick Time, it will allow you to see the excellent animation.
Do a copy and paste of that full link, not just the “blue” portion, to access the material.
Viewing opportunities tonight for the ISS:
10:08 20 degrees above north horizon exiting 10 degrees above the NE horizon.
2 minutes duration.
11:44 14 degrees above north exiting 13 degrees above NNE.
1 minute duration.
Thanks Don. Looks like the sky will be cooperating with the ISS viewings tonight.
That one day cool down on Sunday won’t please anyone heading to the cottage or campground for the first unofficial ‘long weekend of summer.” The showers on Saturday won’t help matters either.
Off to Lake Huron for the weekend where a chance of snowflurries is in the forecast for Sunday morning and 40 F for the high. Mix of flurries and showers around here for Sunday too. It isn’t the first time flakes have been seen the May long weekend—not often–and never welcome.
Any idea Don what is the latest in the spring season Buffalo has seen flurries in the air?
tx
I don’t know about the latest Buffalo flurries, barrie1. I DO know we had 6 to 7″ of slushy snow on Mother’s Day in May of 1989.
Isn’t June 10th, 1980 the latest day for snow or something like that.
marinecore: I don’t know if Buffalo has NEVER had a flurry in June, but there has not been even a trace of snow recorded in June going back to 1940, according to the NWS climate records. Hills to the south–a different story. Buffalo? Nope.
Best chance for any stronger cells tomorrow will be S,SE, and E of the metro area. Spottier activity in the AM, more concentrated in the PM–but some lake shadowing may diminish any potential in the metro area.
The significant midweek warming for next week I’d been talking about looks like it will be put aside. The Euro, which had been something of an outlier in dropping the jet and a trough further south into the ern Grt Lks now looks like it will rule the roost–with a few lt shwrs Wed, and highs only from the upper 50s north to low 60s near PA. The GFS seems to have joined forces with the Euro this morning. Hints of a coolish Saturday to start the holiday wknd, with moderating temps on Sun-Mon. Not summerlike, but mild enough.
Well that’s quite a flip flop eh?
The SPC now includes all of WNY, central NY and our PA viewing area in a Slight Risk category for tomorrow.
Brief heavy rain and a couple rumbles of thunder just passed thru the Middleport area about 9:20 AM.
Just a very light shower here in Arcade. Its getting a little dry we could use some rain.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to include WNY in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather this afternoon. The best chance of any t-storms producing damaging wind gusts and hail will occur Southeast and East of Buffalo toward the Genesee valley. Otherwise, it’ll be windy and warm with widely scattered showers and t-showers along with plenty of dry time inbetween. Much cooler air takes over tonight into tomorrow…in fact, it’ll feel like a change of seasons.
Some steady rain and a few cracks of thunder and flashes of lightning between 7am and 8am. Quite muggy until winds out of the WNW picked up to about 20 mph over an hour ago. Still 60 Farh.
Didn’t go to our property on Lake Huron this wkd as planned. Just as well, the webcamera on the town dock there had it at 60 F at 9am and now it is down to 45 Farh–and that is two and a half ours west of where we live. Flurries in our forecast for tonight with windchill values, according to Environment Canada around 22 Farh!
You bet….a change of seasons.
M.b. I see you joined the avatar group, good to see it!
Severe T-Storm WATCH remains posted until 8pm for Cattaraugus, Allegany, McKean and Potter counties were damaging wind gusts are possible. Elsewhere, skies will clear from west to east with a sharp drop in temps…overnight lows expected to tumble to around 40 tonight. Get out the blankets!
Excuse the typo: “were” should read “where”
Severe T-Storm WATCH has been trimmed and now includes only McKean and Potter counties in Northern PA until 8pm