Early Signs Point to another Unsettled Weekend
May 11th, 2009 at 1:47 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
After a second frosty night on Monday night and still some valley frost the next night, a nice warmup will arrive on a downslope wind Wednesday, with temps jumping into at least the low 70s. Much later Wed night, another vigorous storm system passing to our north will bring a round of Shwrs & Tstorms, followed by Windy and Showery conditions on Thursday–possibly quite windy. Drier air arrives late Thur through Fri night, but another low and its warm front may bring us a few periods of Shwrs & Tshwrs for parts of Saturday, and a nearly stalled front to our SE may allow for some more Sct Shwrs on Sunday, especially to the SE.
Here are the Space Station viewing times between now and Monday night. With clearing skies this evening, you should be able to see the first sighting at 9:24pm. Skies should remain clear through Monday night Enjoy…
ISS Sat May 16/09:24 PM 2minutes 20 above NNW 10 above NE
ISS Sat May 16/11:00 PM 2minutes 15 above N 10 above NE
ISS Sun May 17/00:34 AM < 1minute 10 above NW 12 above NW
ISS Sun May 17/09:51 PM 2minutes 15 above N 10 above NNE
ISS Sun May 17/11:26 PM 1minutes 18 above N 19 above NNE
ISS Mon May 18/10:17 PM 2minutes 14 above N 10 above NE
ISS Mon May 18/11:52 PM < 1minute 21 above NNW 21 above NNW
FREEZE WATCH posted for McKean and Potter counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Widespread scattered frost will develop all across WNY during this period as temperatures tumble into the low 20s to mid 30s. Be sure to protect all outdoor plants and vegetation.
Hey M.B., I’ve noticed alot of various forecasts in the last couple days. Originally Don mentioned the poss of almost muggy conditions for this thus, then he backed off and said it was almost a certainty that it would not happen, then your forecast brings the warm wx right back for that day, I have also noticed alot of variations for the long w/e? Any thoughts?
FREEZE WARNING posted for So. Erie, Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Allegany, McKean and Potter counties, PA late tonight thru early Monday morning. FROST ADVISORY issued for Northern Erie, Niagara, Orleans and Genesee counties late tonight thru early Monday. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to plummet into the 20s and 30s across the region tonight. Widely scattered frost will develop rapidly in areas away from the lakes. You are strongly urged to protect tender plants and vegetation.
Thinksnow: Can you be more specific about what day you’re talking about? Generally speaking, long forecasts do get modified, since they typically indicate trends and not specific weather events.
mb or don
im having a outside party either next sunday or monday witch day is looking better?
Sunday is looking fine right now with temps in the 70s. However, the models are indicating a few disturbances located in the Northeast and MidAtlantic moving closer to WNY toward the end of the holiday weekend. It’s still a long way out, and it’s impossible to pinpoint at this time. As I’ve mentioned before, long range guidance is best at showing trends as opposed to specific weather events.
Just wanted to know what the effect of the recent Frosts will have on my young trees. I have a lot of newly planted trees around my yard, all survived the Winter, but the frosts are a bit concerning as the leaves seem to wilt a bit on my smaller saplings (Poplars, Maples, oaks, etc.), even though the last time around they bounced back after a few days.
Additionally, is there any data available on what this Summer will look like? Will it be wet/cool like last Summer again? I know last year I measured 7″ of rain for the month of July, and over 6″ for August (in Pendleton). I know farmers around Niagara county had issues with some crops as a result. I was told awhile back that the Atlantic Oceans temps play a big role along the East coast – from what I can recall, cooler than average Atlantic temps generally spell wetter weather over the summer since the air tends to rise over the land and sink over the cooler ocean, and when the Atlantic warms, it suppresses rain/t-storms because the air sinks over land but rises over the warmer Atlantic waters. Not sure if I’m on track with this recollection but would be interested to hear the scoop from the talented WIVB meteorologists…
M.B.
I was referring to the post Don sent last Friday, (The day before the forecast flopped the other way again) For this coming Thus and the upcoming holiday w/e. I brought it up not to cause any problems, it just seemed that only a half a day earlier, Don seemed pretty confident….The significant midweek warming for next week I’d been talking about looks like it will be put aside. The Euro, which had been something of an outlier in dropping the jet and a trough further south into the ern Grt Lks now looks like it will rule the roost–with a few lt shwrs Wed, and highs only from the upper 50s north to low 60s near PA. The GFS seems to have joined forces with the Euro this morning. Hints of a coolish Saturday to start the holiday wknd, with moderating temps on Sun-Mon. Not summerlike, but mild enough. See How much that all changed in a 12 to 18 hour period? It was just kinda odd to me that is all. I know forecasting in this region is difficult and can be
Chris; The Climate Prediction Ctr (part of NOAA/NWS) give us slightly better than even odds for warmer than average conditions mid/late summer. There is nothing in particular anyone can hang a hat on for the the overall trend for this summer, in all honesty, particularly in the realm of precipitation–no strong signals from nature. I should remind you we’re not on the east coast, and Atlantic sea sfc temperatures have far less effect in WNY than they do closer to the coast. As for the frost’s effect on your trees, I recommend you contact your county Cornell Extension Office–that’s more their bailiwick, Chris.
thinksnow; the temporary flip-flop I saw last week had nothing to do with how “forecasting in this region is difficult.” It was connected with flip-flops in 2 models. I began reinstating some warmth for the middle of this week back on my Friday casts. That warming became more impressive in the wknd guidance.
NEW THREAD IS NOW UP.
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