Midweek Respite; Unsettled Wx to Follow, Again
April 28th, 2009 at 2:19 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The cold front has been doing its thing on Tuesday, with early afternoon temps having dropped to the upper 40s closer to Lk Ontario. Dry weather will return later this evening into at least midday Thursday, but another low pressure system will send moisture back at us from the Ohio Valley by later Thursday into Friday night and possibly even early Saturday. There is enough spread between models and ensembles to introduce some uncertainty into the weekend forecast–as to how soon we dry out on Saturday, and as to whether moisture tries to creep back into the s tier on Sunday. The one high confidence element is that this weekend will be nowhere near as warm as last weekend.
The last 4 days were like a summertime preview…
It was very warm this morning and very early. It hit 80* at a nearby WeatherBug even though warming probably stopped at 11 or 12 this morning.
While we’re not going to see 80s around here for a while, Thur and Fri will at least be mild–even with showers moving later on Thursday.
As of 3pm, it’s 88 at La Guardia and Central Park, and 90 in Poughkeepsie. Yesterday, our Neighborhood WeatherNet site at Belmont hit 91.
Don, I talked to a friend that lives in between Poughkeepsie and Albany and they said it hit 100 yesterday.
Hi Don,
Do you know if Wednesday night be a decent night in Williamsville for viewing the planets with a telescope?
Looks pretty good, Paul. There may be some thin cirrus cloudiness later in the evening, especially south of the metro area.
Still some confidence issues with the weekend outlook, mostly because of disparities between the European and the GFS, both in operational and in ensemble modes. The Climate Prediction Ctr yesterday noted the superior track record of the Euro for an extended stretch of weeks over the GFS, but this superiority is not to the extent that the GFS should be discounted every time when matched against the Euro.
In any case, this evening’s operational GFS does more clearly move the showers out of the region by early Saturday (while the Euro may be slower). All in all, I’m a little more confident about a mostly dry weekend, but there are no locks on this yet.
Its currently 47F. I wanted to record that here because a few posts ago Lakewood was recording 80F temps. The ground was dry and cracked in parts of my yard on Monday. Today everything is cool and damp. What an difference!! As a result, the greenery is coming in fast! I have some emerging perennial plants that have more than doubled in size with the warm temps and the cold rain, following. The daffodils at the Burchfield Art and Nature Center on Union and Clinton are beautiful, as are the many displays of tulips and other spring blooms. Now the trees are blooming and that fuzzy light-green color dots the landscape. I love it!!! Buffalo is in bloom once again!
It is not just the incredible winters, that makes our weather great, its also the change of the seasons.
Couldn’t agree more, sabresfan. I lived in Tampa for a year a long time ago,and I don’t want to live anywhere without real seasons again.
It could be worse! In Canada we’re stuck with only two seasons – summer and hockey; of course there’s often a ’slight’ overlap!
You know you’re in WNY when the weather in Fairbanks, AK is nicer…
.TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 60 TO 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30 TO 40. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS 30 TO 35. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS 65 TO 75. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 45.
.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 70.
.SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 40.
From Fairbanks NWS.
I’m confused. Mike’s noon forecast calls for very windy tomorrow night (Thursday). He said gusts possible of 45MPH or more, yet the NWS discussion makes no mention of this or even very windy conditions?
Happy Birthday Don !!
Funny Howie H. No overlap with the Maple Leafs. Done in early April as sure as the sun rises in the east.
Beauty day with loads of sunshine and blue sky around here. Lawns are lush green and starting to grow. Envir. Can Calling for up to half an inch to an inch of rain for overnight tomorrow into Fri.
Didn’t know it was your birthday Don. Happy _ _ You fill in the blank!
Happy Birthday Don!
Happy Birthday Don!!
Hope your having a good one
Thanks for the birthday wishes.
By the way, it does look like winds tom’w night will be rather gusty.
hey Happy Birthday, Don! just one week after me! go Taurus!
Taurus? Much improved, but I prefer the Fusion. Thanks, sabresfan!
Happy Belated Don.
Here comes a line in from the SW with some lightening detected. I bet we hear some rumbles… just as the kids start walking home from school!
Just a bit of an editorial departure on another science-related subject: yesterday, many of you heard the American Lung Association’s report concerning WNY’s poor air quality, along with parts of NYC’s air quality problems. The ozone problem during stagnant summer hot spells is certainly a genuine concern. Ozone is an irritant which is especially difficult on those with chronic heart and lung disease, particularly asthma, as well as young infants.
However, the report creates–in my view–a perspective that our air quality problems have been growing worse, and that overall air pollution has been growing worse over time. Any baby boomer who grew near a big city can recall the far more frequent incidences of smog and particulate matter fallout which occurred prior to the passage of the Clean Air Act. As someone who has written and reported on matters concerning pollution and the epidemiology of cancer (and who worked as a science radio news reporter and producer for the U.S. EPA’s Office of Public Affairs shortly after the EPA’s establishment), I can tell you that overall air quality in terms of particulates and other toxic emissions has improved tremendously in recent decades. There is simply no comparison between air quality prior to the Clean Air Act’s passage and contemporary air quality. Cars have never burned cleaner, and factory emissions have also been greatly reduced in terms of released toxins. The margin of improvement is enormous, and the American Lung Association HAS to know this. I think it’s unfortunate when a charitable organization, which undoubtedly does good work and offers valuable research in support of preventing and treating lung disease, tries to create a perspective which is not really supportable in the scientific literature.
These issues have nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions, which are increasing rapidly. I am referring to those substances which develop a toxic response in humans. Yes, more must be done–especially about ozone, but I think it’s inappropriate for those with vested interests to beat a drum to the extent that partially misleading publicity is accepted by much of the media and maybe politicians as the gospel truth.
No lightning at this time, as of 4pm.
Just picked up on some old (more than 10 minutes) strikes NE of Ashtabula, indicating those cells are not strengthening.
I wonder how much of our air pollution originates elsewhere and just rides the wind across Lake Erie. With places such as Bethlehem Steel no longer operating, I can see where Don’s coming from.
Phoenix AZ has what’s referred to locally as “the brown cloud”. It’s pretty self explanitory, and you can actually see it every day. In such a large city (the metro area is maybe 30 miles across) with not much in the way of public transportation, all that pollution bakes in 100+ degree heat during the summer. Being situated in a valley, that stuff has nowhere to go. One of the reasons why I moved back here. I don’t think the air’s too bad in these parts.
Don,
Great piece above. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the US has spent a great deal of money trying to “burn clean”. It’s the third world countries that need to catch up. I forgot where I saw it, but there was a world map showing pollution being discharged into the air. The US was one of the cleanest burning countries on that map.
In a blending of operational models and ensembles, the Climate Prediction Ctr has high confidence (4 out of 5) of both above average temperatures and above average precipitation for our region in the 6-10 period. With the axis of the upper level longer wave trough to our west, we will be in the middle of the prevailing storm track. The wet trend is expected to continue beyond this time period, but the confidence level in their outlook drops a bit (3 out of 5).
Because I have posted on why the majority of atmospheric and climate scientists believe global warming will inevitably continue, and that anthropogenic activity may be largely responsible, it’s only fair to give you a few eye-opening links which represent a very different viewpoint. Much of what is written here is not overly “heavy” reading, so I recommend these articles as representing another view. Rush Limbaugh’s scientifically illiterate bombast aside, these scientific articles are well worth reading.http://icecap.us/images/uploads/MISLEADING_REPORTS_ABOUT_ANTARCTICA.pdf
http://carbonpurging.com/sites/default/files/2008GL037022_all.pdf
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/MISLEADING_REPORTS_ABOUT_ANTARCTICA.pdf
Sorry, the first link didn’t come out as “clickable”, but it is the correct link.
I should add that one of the authors, Joe D’Aleo, was one of Mike Cejka’s college profs. He’s definitely been a skeptic on anthropogenic warming, but he always supports his critiques with solid scholarship. I’m sure I’ll be seeing him in June at my AMS conference.
Currently I am writing an essay for a research project and English and I chose global warming. I took the “anthropogenic global warming isn’t happening” side and I did include the above normal ice fact in it, but from another source( http://wattsupwiththat.com/ ). In the past, I’ve generally been in the middle of the road concerning the causes of global warming, but now that I’m almost done, I’ve completely moved over to the anti-AGW side. It’ll be interesting when we present because another person took the other side and I’m curious as to what she has to say. Maybe I’m wrong, but I went into it knowing that and will fully accept it, provided there’s sufficient proof.
I’d like to wish, on behalf of all of us, a great retirement for NWS meteorologist Alan Blackburn. Alan worked his last shift this afternoon, after having spent 35 years with the Buffalo NWS Office. He has seen it all, almost needless to say.
I would remind you LakewoodWX, that while Watts selective presentation of datasets is very impressive, NCAR researchers demonstrated to me and other visiting tv mets last summer that when they reinitialize global climate models with the CO2 levels of the early 20th century, rather than our current elevated levels (same with more potent methane), the world would not have been warming and would likely have been cooling and continued to cool for the foreseeable future.
Obviously, I don’t have the answers but some of the newer ice data has certainly raised my eyebrows. The evidence that warming has been continuing and that we have a lot to do with it is far from conclusive in my mind. But it is robust. Brilliant skeptics can certainly impress when not in the presence of academics with opposing viewpoints. Peer review is another matter. Have fun, and I hope your opponent does some of the heavy reading that’s necessary to present his or her arguments.
I know its early, but how does next Saturday look?
It is too early. What hints we have from the GFS do point to a threat of some showers and coolish temperatures, however.
Folks living in the valleys tonight may want to cover up any outdoor plants and vegetation. Patchy frost is expected later tonight as temps plunge into the low 30s there…
Hey MB….I know it’s REALLY early, but any thoughts on Memorial Day weekend?….we’re going camping that weekend, and the outliers I’ve looked at through like May 15 are showing mid-50’s and rain….not what we were hoping for….sorry if this is a ridiculous request, but was just wondering…
Stormwatcher: I understand your concern about the holiday weekend, but it definitely is much too early to make a call. Long range models generally go out to 16 days and even with that, forecasts become “trends” instead of indicating specific weather events.
It sure has been a beautiful spring day here in the Middleport area.
Hi WIVB mets,
I’m sure you’ve all seen the Dallas Cowboys indoor facility collapsing video (probably many times by now) and every time I see it I have to wonder why they were in there in the first place under those (forecast) conditions. Please understand that I’m not trying to be a ‘wise guy’ (and yes, they’ve probably been in there many times during severe weather) but that is (was) essentially a ’soft’ structure and surely there are safety limits that should come into play. Have you thought about it? what’s your take on it? just curious, thanks.
Howie: The team has probably practiced in that same facility during similar stormy set ups in the past. It’s certainly possible that the wear and tear created by previous strong wind events weakened the facility to the point that this last episode caused it to collapse. That’s my hypothesis.
Sounds reasonable, but I’ll bet there have been warning signs in the past. It will be interesting to see what the investigations reveals (no doubt there will be one). Incidentally, last Sunday on the bus ride back from Casino Rama the bus driver told us that the Saturday storm had the blackest sky he’d ever seen during daylight hours and he saw what could have been a funnel cloud over lake Couchiching (a little more than 20 miles northeast of Barrie). No confirming reports from that area as far as I know but some areas in Toronto were without power for a few days after the storm hit the city. Thanks MB.
NEW THREAD IS UP.