Where Often is Heard a Discouraging Word…
March 31st, 2009 at 10:05 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
We can’t catch a break–that will last, that is. After the Tuesday respite, more showers will be here Wed, Fri, then some mixed lt shwrs late Fri night into Sat AM, then more showers on Monday, and maybe a mix again on Tuesday. In between, Thursday and Sunday are looking fine. An active pattern with no long term ridging will continue to keep us from getting an extended warm spell with less frequent precipitation. The operational GFS has the greatest amplitude for systems, so it may be overdoing how chilly we’re going to get. However, in varying degrees, all the operational models are showing a generally unsettled pattern for some time to come.
Is the MODIS satellite the aerial survey instrument to make the determination to take down the ice boom or is this descision instead made by aircraft?
In my opinion the most recent Lake Erie MODIS satellite image revels less than 250 square miles of ice. There is less than fifty miles between Buffalo and Port Maitland, Ontario where the highest concentration of Lake Erie ice is located. The ice is concentrated on the north shore of Lake Erie. The U.S. shore is wide open from Hamburg to Detroit. The Lake Erie water temperatures west of Buffalo are approximately 40 degrees F. Time to open the ice boom.
All this bad weather means is that we are going to have a very cold and wet spring and a not so nice summer this year.
Aeolus,
Opinion isn’t good enough. The Control Board is quite competent to make the call at the proper time, based on hard data and calculations.
In any case, opening the ice boom will have zero effect on our weather, if that’s what you’re getting at.
Bill,
Your statement is not based on anything more than pessimism–which is understandable in this lousy pattern.
What a lousy 1st week of spring-break… It’s not always fun waking up to a Winter Storm Watch and to see the HPC give you 2 days of a 10% chance of 8″+.
Will this year actually be worse than 2007? I hope not.
I forgot that Lake Erie is open for business again. This could really be interesting to say the least.
***WINTER STORM WATCH in effect Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for ALL of WNY***
Significant out of season snows likely Monday night and Tuesday with snow accumulations possibly in excess of 6 inches in some areas of WNY. The highest snowfall accumulations will likely be found over the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Lake effect snow may become an issue for areas south of Buffalo late Tuesday.
There is alot to take into consideration besides the higher sun angles, such as longer daylight, The ground is far from frozen and the NWS says about .5 to .75 qpf. I am not 100% sure, but I believe the snow to liquid ratio will not be more than 8 to 1 to maybe as high as 10 to 1. having said that with the other factors, I would not be suprised if the lower elevations never get above 3″ tops on the grassy surfaces and maybe some secondaries slick and snow covered. All in my un-professional opinion.
107 posts and counting! All it takes is some REAL weather and this blog ALWAYS responds well! (sorry Richard!) At least it will hopefully be nice for your wedding!
Does anyone out there have any knowledge about Holiday Valley? This has to be the longest un-interrupted ski season in recent memory. Good for them, it was well deserved in this economy.
LOL THANK YOU GOD FOR SEEING US SNOW AGAIN
I hope so to thinksnow! As long as this pattern changes a by May 9th, I’m happy. But were also having an outdoor wedding shower on April 18th. Well its indoor/outdoor, but would be nice to have some nice weather then. The 1st shower it was on March 28th, and it was 62 and sunny. So far were 1-1 in the nice weather category. =)
You guys didn’t think we’d get out of it that easy, did you? Where you at Devin? This is right in your wheelhouse kid!
I love how we all crawl back out of the depths again as soon as there is a storm watch. If anything at all, the blog will be fun again for a couple of days.
Dont forget to post your snow totals here on the blog if we get some.
OMG!!! I love snow, but my dafodils are up and I am DONE with snow!!!! UGH.
Ok, no more “OMG’s” on the blog please! I can’t help but think of the movie Clueless! Anyways, I really was under the impression something special was going on this year. I thought season truly was over, I guess you never know.
of course we’re going to get a late season snow storm because Don’s off all week! Thanks Don!!!!
I still say, Don always seems to miss alot of events…It is almost like you can schedule it in if he is off!
No, I miss very few of ‘em, thinksnow. The occasions on which I could sit and watch a storm without working are few and far between.
I guess that may even be better, no deadlines and pressure, just evaluating and enjoying! by the way, do you still feel this storm bears some watching?
Thanks
Today MODIS image clearly shows that there is now far less than
50 square miles of ice in Lake Erie.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/data/2009/jpg/t1.09095.1629.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg
The ice is gathered on the North shore of Lake
Erie from Port Colborne to Buffalo and no where
else. Western Lake Erie’s temperature has warmed up
above 30 degrees.
The micro climate weather for the West Side of Buffalo
and Fort Erie is being made cooler from ice still
floating off our shores. This type of ice conditioning
is less desirable and delays Spring planting for
neighborhoods near these imposed arctic vistas.
We local water recreation types desire to have our
open water again. We want to get back into Lake Erie
as soon as possible.
It’s time to let slip the ice.
The Control Board needs to get with
modern tech like the general public
who can clearly see from MODIS that
the ice boom needs to be removed.
Aeolus –
Your ideas about the Lake Erie ice boom somehow causing the west side of Buffalo to be cooler in the spring is a long held urban myth in Buffalo. Unfortunately people still believe this utter nonsense, despite the best efforts of Don and others to dispell it.
The ice pack in Lake Erie forms a natural ice bridge at the east end of the lake, due to the narrowing of the lake at the east end. All the ice boom does is prevent relatively small chunks of ice from flowing down the river, and damaging the power project water intakes, and other assets along the river.
During the spring thaw, the ice melts in place in Lake Erie, it does not exit the lake through the Niagara River. This has always been the case. Only a tiny percentage of the ice could move down the river, 99 percent of it melts in place whether the ice boom is there or not.
As Don has mentioned a number of times, many years ago the National Weather Service did an extensive study of ice out dates and temperature data during the spring at Buffalo. The data clearly shows the ice boom has no impact. In fact, the average ice out date at Buffalo is a day earlier since the ice boom as been in use. The facts don’t lie.
So the next time you hear someone talk about how the ice boom is to blame for our cold spring temperatures in Buffalo, please do your part to wipe out this nonsense.
Thank you YJ Jr.
It seems this myth is perpetual, no matter how conclusive the evidence to the contrary–and I DO mean conclusive.
thinksnow, I’m on vaca and haven’t looked at things much, but I obviously feel it bears watching–that’s an understatement, with a WS Watch in effect.
Boy, is that guy Don ever smart, he sees a really lousy week coming up and says to himself, “no way I’m hangin’ around here for the second coming of winter!” and books his vacation. Just kidding of course, but have a good one Don, you deserve it!!
Yes, Don and the staff deserve it, Mike was gone for a while, lucky for them that for the last 6 weeks or so, weather was mainly quiet…
I am going to do this even though some of you, especially Devin, hate it but here goes…WITH A VERY DEEP LAYER/SLOPED FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE…A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE I69/M59
CORRIDORS. MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LAST 48
HOURS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND THIS GENERAL SOLUTION AND SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND A
POTENTIAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AGGREGATE SOUNDING POINTS TO A
POSSIBILITY OF PROLIFIC SNOWFALL RATES OF (1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR)
BETWEEN 3-10Z. ULTIMATELY…THESE HEAVY RATES SHOULD PROVE SUCCESSFUL
OVER MARGINALLY WARM TEMPS TO ALLOW FOR QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH A TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF I 94 DUE TO THE WARMER AIR AND DETACHMENT FROM
FGEN/DEFORMATION. MANY AREAS SOUTH OF I69 WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY
12Z TOMORROW. FOR THE TIME BEING INCLUDED THE TOMORROW PERIOD IN THE
WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG WINDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS.
That was taken right out of the Detroit NWS Text Forecast just issued…I THINK this is relevant because the storm is traveling through/past that area and into ours…that is alot of accum in January let alone April…This could be more interesting than I thought.
Why would I hate getting 6-10 inches of snow?
It looks like the center of the low will pass ENE through Southern Ontario and up through Lake Ontario, thus putting us on the “warm side” of the storm for most of Monday at least, limiting accumulations. And Michigan will be changing over to snow fairly quickly tonight. Just an observation from a noob that’s probably wrong. :p
If the low passes to the ENE that puts us on the back side, thus the cold side. Indications over the past few days have been that it would stay all rain untill tomorrow night. Detroit is expirencing rain as we speak. It’s basically the same thing there as it will be here. Maybe not the accumulations but as the low approaches them they will be on the warm side followed by a breif dry slot and as the low lift ENE we will get the rain untill the low passes us than we will get the dry slot and eventually the snow. Since the low will be strengthening as it moves ENE toward and pass Buffalo the deformation zone may be a bit more impressive than it is over michigan but we may not have quite the extent of cold air as they have right away, although temps will be more than sufficent to support wet snow turning to all snow as 850’s drop to -6 to -10 by Tuesday. As expected higher elevations will see higher amounts just for the fact that it’s colder , but they also have orographic lift to enhance the snow especally along the Chatauqua Ridge. With 850’s so low for this time of year (-10C) and the lake sitting between 0C and 3C in some spots the WSW winds will also enhance the snow especally south of the Buffalo metro area. IMO the lake enhancement Tuesday night and wednesday could breifly start off in the southtowns. I would also apreciate if you wouldnt call ThinkSnow08 a noob because as far as I can remember he’s been on this blog longer than me and I have never even heard of you “LeeLee.” Let’s all show eachother respect on this blog and not use name calling.
Wonder what all the blooming Hyacinths will say over the next 48 hours?
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Remember this is using a 10:1 ratio. Take about 10% off what you see.
I was calling myself a noob, I didn’t mean to offend.
Did the National Weather Service study the shoreline temperatures along the West Side of Buffalo from Porter to Forest Avenue when the ice boom is holding back ice and the rest of Lake Erie is ice free?
These statements about no effect on the weather temperatures for the West Side of Buffalo when Lake Erie ice is being dammed up above the source of the Niagara River seam similar to Morton Thiokol telling Richard Feynman that o rings won’t crack in the cold.
If we are standing at the foot of Porter Avenue and there is ice behind the ice boom in Lake Erie (above the source of the Niagara River), and the wind is blowing SW at approximately 25 mph, than is the temperature colder compared to when there is no ice behind the ice boom and we have the same wind direction and speed?
Does ice in water not make the lower level, air temperatures become colder or stay colder for neighborhoods in close proximity to Lake Erie?
This discussion we are having is getting off the subject of my posting.
Is MODIS or an airplane used to factor how much ice is in Lake Erie in order to pull the ice boom out?
Has the ice boom been removed when ice covered approximately 200 square miles of Lake Erie?
In my opinion there is less than 50 miles of ice coverage on Lake Erie after looking at Sunday’s MODIS image.
After a substantial rainfall does sediment plumes in the Niagara River make the water temperature higher on the US side of the river?
After the same rainfall event is the water temperature in the Niagara River colder in Canada because the water is clearer, with less sediment on the Fort Erie side of the river?
Your opinion is politely expressed, Aeolus, but incorrect. Reread Yukon Jack Jr’s post.
I have reread Yukon Jack Jr’s post:
“The National Weather Service did an extensive study of ice out dates and temperature data during the spring at Buffalo. The data clearly shows the ice boom has no impact.”
No impact of exactly where in Buffalo? What places were the NWS data collected from? I think this study is inaccurate and inconclusive if it didn’t measure temperatures up and down the Niagara River from the Erie Basin Marina to the foot of Hertel Avenue and include temperatures farther inland from Niagara east to West Avenue.
If this data was exclusively obtained from the Coast Guard Station in Buffalo and the Porter Avenue weather station than in my opinion the data would be lacking in scope.
It makes no sense to myself to tell me that a body of water covered in ice does not effect the shoreline temperatures along Lake Erie and farther inland eastward into Buffalo. The retention of that ice behind the boom instead of letting it flow naturally down the Niagara River has to have some effect on West Side temperatures. In Spring high water displacement events more ice would be pushed down the Niagara River and that surely would make the water stay cooler along the shoreline of the river.
One thing that isn’t being declared a myth. The water temperatures on the West Side of Buffalo near the Niagara River and Lake Erie have a later planting and harvest season.
Also I submit that the sediment plumes running out of the Buffalo River and down the Niagara River make the Spring water temperatures on the U.S. side of the river slightly higher than on the opposite shore of the Niagara River. But not enough to counter the water cooling effect of ice being in the water being chilled from the ice boom.
These questions may not be important to he rest of WNY but to the people on the West Side the chill is still in the air and it will feel warmer when the ice boom has allowed the ice to flow again down the majestic Niagara River. Let her rip!
You still don’t get it. Most of the ice in L Erie melts in place, and the ice boom has not changed the last ice exit date from the harbor. In fact, the ice has been exiting one statistically insignificant day EARLIER since the boom went in.
In other words, nothing has changed to keep ice at the ern end of Lk Erie since the boom went in. Sorry to sound prickly, but there is no evidence to support your hypothesis about the ice boom. None. The National Academy of Engineering was also involved in an earlier study, and found no such evidence.
End of story. I realize that sounds arrogant, but that’s the way it is.
I’m not challenging your knowledge and authority but asking questions about this subject that is still leaving me asking more questions. No need to get defensive with me. This is not an attack on you. That was never the intention. Your all right by me Jersey.
Just wondering if there were studies of the effect of lake ice on Buffalo temperatures before the advent of the ice boom? If the answer is there were no earlier studies made on lake temperatures before the ice boom than this situation reminds me of how scientists once wondered if there was an effect on North American temperatures from aircraft contrails. I would enjoy to learn if there were comparative studies conducted on temperature dynamics with the ice boom and without the ice boom.
First I never learned if MODIS or aircraft observations or both sources of information were used to determined when to open and close the ice boom.
Global climate change is probably the cause for Lake Erie thawing one day earlier. Warmer water from the shallower western part of Lake Erie coupled with greater and warmer sunlight exposure indeed melts lake ice. This is shown from the Lake Erie water temperature transects from the past month. I watch them regularly.
Out of curiosity do scientists sample pollution levels found in the Spring ice of eastern Lake Erie? Today, my wife and I were discussing how dirty the lake ice looks during this period of thawing. We were wondering if the dirty appearance indicates automobile and coal plant pollution and if it could be another factor in earlier lake ice thawing.
A comment we take for granted what the U.S. space program has done to improve our lives. MODIS is a wonderful tool that is now being shared with us ice watchers. I’m also fascinated to be able to daily sediment patterns being shown by MODIS before and after rains, wind storms, from river and stream run off and after winter ice thawing.
Also I love it when we see the weather both in WNY and southern Ontario. The weather does not stop at borders. Thanks for the local wind speeds. The competition often pays the wind speeds no heed.
Yes, there have been comparisons of regional temperatures near the lake and the river, though the spacing between sites is extensive, and no evidence exists of greater cooling following the ice boom.
The studies on the ice boom have been exhaustive, Aeolus. I’m glad you were able to make a conclusion concerning global warming that scientists cannot possibly make. Particularly because a number of decades passed following the use of the boom before there was any discernible evidence of warming in our region from climate change.
If I sounded defensive, it’s because you seem to have assumed that no studies with intellectual and scientific rigor have been undertaken on this topic.
To the contrary, this is a settled issue in the scientific literature. It’s not that your questions struck me as foolish or poorly thought out. They were sensible questions, but they have been answered thoroughly and conclusively to the contrary of your hypotheses.
Most of the surveying is done by fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. Your estimate of 50 square miles of ice was, at the time you made it, substantially off the mark.
I can’t answer your question about studies of pollution particulates in the ice.
Thank You Don for answering my questions.
I will submit that my guess of fifty square miles was off but there sure wasn’t 250 sq. miles of ice on Sunday.
It seams wasteful to send up a plane or chopper when we have MODIS images except on cloud blocking days.
My ice watching in the last 15 years has provided me with observations of more years without total ice cover, and more years with short duration periods of ice cover. I really avidly watch the comings and goings of lake ice and seiches. I’m not a scientist but I know the many seasonal moods of the lake.
The amount of pollution from western coal plants is another documented reality and currently a new coal plant goes into operation every month in China. Meanwhile ice shields and glaciers continue to be documented around the world and show they are melting rapidly.
The weather in the Great Lakes is something I have observed in a way that few WNYer’s have experienced. This does not make me an expert but like an ancient Polynesian navigator one can sense the lake weather from years of experience and changes. Modern scientific technology and better understanding of our planet’s weather has benefited all of us and saved many lives across the globe.
My feeling is that perhaps weather accuracy would be advanced and we could learn more about local pollution by having more weather and pollution observation stations along Lake Erie and the Niagara River. In addition some of the Buffalo Public Schools on the West Side would also provide good weather observation opportunities for students and the community to learn more about our weather.
Air quality plays a big part in our health, weather and perhaps even greater Lake Erie ice melting. Science has documented elevated respiratory health problems on the West Side of Buffalo.
The waters of Lake Erie play a big part in the weather we get here.
A few years ago I witnessed an intense storm cell with a funnel cloud formation. This storm with lightening crossed west to east, on the north shore of Lake Erie. On that day the water temperature and air temperatures were over ten degrees in difference. The funnel never got down to the surface of the lake. In a short time this storm hit Cheektowaga in the Union Rd area and took off a roof on a restaurant then it rolled into a trailer park in Wyoming County and caused a fatality.
It would be terrific if we had live weather cameras on the inner and outer break walls of Buffalo. The storm images would be better than those seen at Hoaks in Hamburg. Another seiche camera on the Black Rock canal under the Peace Bridge would be a way to show water displacement images of the water rising and declining.
As the teacher said in school there is no wrong question. Learning and new discoveries are made by studying scientific information and connecting the dots into new understandings.
Thank You again Don for your time and weather knowledge.