Fuzzy Picture of a Flawed Weekend
March 24th, 2009 at 9:59 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The weather pattern over much of the ern half of the country will be rather active again by Thursday into next week. The fairly typical disarray among models still leaves us with a likelihood of precipitation for portions of both days, even though details are “fuzzy”. The differing path possibilities of a low moving out of the S Central US are still wide, with some models bringing favorable conditions for convection by late Saturday into Saturday night (approach of the storm’s warm sector with good jet dynamics), while other models and members of models in the ensembles take the storm further east, which would leave us out of the active warm sector. A chillier regime will take hold during Sunday into Sunday night, & another active change from warm to cold may reoccur late next week. In any case, the pattern will not be as quiet as it’s been. The extended range in models tend to become even less reliable as we enter into the warm weather months–for a variety of reasons we’ll discuss another time.
Contrails, huh? My daughter calls them “plane streets”… Good to have a proper name for them..although I think plane streets is cuter…
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My Luge is still here. It’s about 3 feet tall. I doubt it will outlast the ice on Lake Erie. But that could be a new goal for next year.
Don, I’m not a conspiracy theorist. I just thought contrails are supposed to dicipate fairly quickly. Sometimes they don’t. Just wondered why. Enough about that.
Sharply colder air will push into WNY as we head into tonight behind a departing cold front. Wrap around moisture on the backside of the storm system will allow scattered showers to continue into this evening with rain mixing with wet snow overnight toward dawn. There’ll be little or no accumulation, however could see some minor accumulation on the hilltops south and east of Buffalo. It’s a cold and windy start to the week tomorrow…Monday begins with a rain/snow mix with skies clearing toward evening. You’ll definitely feel a hint of winter and a meaningful wind chill in the air when you walk out the door in the morning…
I DO NOT like Buffalo HWO for the Southern Tier. 3 to 4 inches would be nice if it was still winter, but not now after this taste of spring we’ve had for the past few weeks…
Hail just started up here in Stedman at about 20 after 8. This is the High ground by 86 in Chautauqua County south of the Institution.
We have just enough snow here at 4:30 this morning that the ground is covered over but the traffic is moving fine and the road is only wet not snow covered. This is the Gimmer on the Stedman Ridge just off exit 7 of the Southern Tier Expressway. It’s still snowing lightly. I just checked my sheep and its cold enough the buckets of water are freezing.
NCEP 500mb ensemble mean and even the 12z operational GFS are not encouraging about next Monday, which looks crappier than today. Fortunately, there’s lots of time for beneficial flip flopping this far out.
Hi Don, Does looking crappier mean looking whiter?
Not necessarily, but not out of the question.
That is a long ways off like you said Don. I love snow as much or more than most people but snow in April is no fun. Time for the sun to shine and temps to warm.
Got 2 inches this morning which brings my total up to 167 inches, just past the highest total I can find for my area (166 inches).
A week from today would bring it to my birthday and that of my seven year old son.
As you noted Don, when snow was brought up, you said not necessarily, but not out of the question.
Well, I have had to dig out before on April 6th.
There are always a few ball games postponed(Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago etc etc) early in the season in April because of cold and snow.
We had a light coating of snow this morning that seemed to have everyone dumbfounded. I guess because snow has been a rarity ’round here for March.
Snowfall totals in Buffalo well below the norm for March?
Hi barrie1,
Buffalo’s on tap for the 2nd least snowy March in our history, going back to 1871. Total: .5″, which, considering how our winter was going, is pretty amazing.
It is quite something.
I don’t know the record for Toronto, but the numbers for March are similiar to Buffalo.
I can tell you the folks at our city hall are counting their financial blessings–saving some coin on snow clearing operations. Or at least not breaking the bank like they did earlier in the season.
Have a good evening.
The 18z GFS is slower with the cold advection next Monday, and keeps us with all rain during the day. However, thicknesses and 850mb temps drop sufficiently–in this operational run–for a change to snow later in the evening.
I ordinarily wouldn’t mention GFS output so far in advance, but because some ensemble members and the NCEP 500mb mean ensemble do show a decent shot of chilly wx returning at that time, it’s going to be something to watch–for the time being.
Don that is so weird Buffalo has so little snow and we had so dang much. This open March was so wonderful after having pretty much non stop snow since Nov. 16th. We had those thaws but they did not last long. The one Christmas week was the biggest I think. Wave after wave of snow and so dang much ice really was rough. I know of allot of people who fell on ice this winter. One fellow sheep farmer broke back ribs doing chores on an icey day. Mayville and the surrounding area here got hammered all winter while Buffalo did not.
Buffalo has not had snow in March. On the other hand, we were well above average most of the winter prior to March.
Cool Lk Ontario breeze will keep temps in the 40s in Niag & Orl Cos this afternoon. The overall pattern for the 1st 2 weeks in April still not looking too good, though there will be some decent days. We seem to be losing much of Saturday to a chilly breeze and some lingering lt shwrs in the AM (which might have a few flakes in ‘em in the hills at dawn), with improvement in the PM. Sunday will be the nicer of the 2 wknd days. The 12z GFS has slowed the cooldown early next week until Tuesday, and flakes now seem much less likely.
I wish I could be more optimistic about a longer lasting springlike trend, but there’s no evidence of it so far. At least for the first part of April, I’m afraid we’ll be a long way from matching last April’s terrific weather.
Wow, look at the new shot of lake Erie. There’s only ice near hamburg and the Buffalo Harbor. I suspect the rain must’ve melted the ice ou tby Long Point. it shouldn’t be long now.
out by*
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