Cold Start to Month of March
February 28th, 2009 at 9:07 am by WIVB under Weather Watch 4
Canadian High pressure will settle into the eastern Great Lakes, ushering in a cold, but mainly dry wintry pattern for the beginning of the new month. Temperatures over the next 5 days will average some 5-10 degrees below normal with day time highs generally in the 20s, and lows in the teens and single digits. A coastal storm Sunday will not have an impact on WNY, however, there may be some light snow showers developing toward evening. Otherwise, expect a good amount of sunshine but don’t forget the heavier jacket….and throw some extra logs on the fireplace. Finally, a Pacific flow of air will offer a warming trend toward the end of the upcoming week, and along with that comes a chance of a wintry mix and rain Thursday into Friday.
Welcome Lee. Nice to have a blogger north of me! When of my co-workers spent four days(starting last Thursday) in Sudbury on his annual winter snowmobile ride with family. He did over 150 miles in one day on Saturday in the bitter cold.
Wind isn’t too bad—feels much better than yesterday. Tomorrow will feel downright tropical.
Don–is Sunday till a coin flip. Around here, the call is 40 F and chance of showers.
tx
Hi, Lee of Sudbury. I haven’t been there, but I know Sudbury is a good-sized metro area. For Bob, Lee and others, we are going to have a breakout starting on Thursday, and we even have a crack at passing the 50 degree mark inland from Lk Erie on Friday, with a few lt rain showers. Up at Sudbury, as you’d guess, things won’t be so mild. Still, it looks like temperatures will be running above average at least Thur-Sat and for a portion of next week.
There continues to be some disarray between models for this wknd and early next week, but it does look more likely that we’ll turn briefly chillier (seasonably) on Sunday with some more moderation by Tuesday.
These sunny days really perk me up even if winter is not over and it’s blinking cold at night. It get’s me moving some how. Instead of in like a lion they should say “In like a Polar Bear out like a lamb for this March”. I had some pipes freeze last night despite my efforts to keep the heat up. My husband was able to thaw them with a hair dryer quickly. Must have been an odd wind direction blowing to make this happen because its the first time all winter. I will go back and look at z’s other link, Don. I have no idea why this wind turbine thing fascinates me so much.
There have been many claims made against wind power, most of which are not supported in the scientific literature (such as large number bird kills). This problem is real, worse than many operational mets would have suspected before construction of these turbines, but CAN be mitigated in the future if the proximity of the towers is taken into consideration before construction.
I certainly was unaware of how MUCH interference, scattering, and reflecting these structures and their blades could cause.
Is this a windfarm blog or weather blog? Don you should create a thread for windmills…
Don, this is the latest from the Department of Defense and Homeland Security on the issue of windfarms and radar.
http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/wind.pdf
NATO also has concerns, and Don unfortunately it seems the DOD and NATO are more worried about military implications on this issue than civilian or meterological aspects
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3308527.ece
Little Igloo:
First, I don’t appreciate your first post as to whether this is a wind turbine or weather blog. That was out of line. In addition to your rudeness, the wind turbine issue as raised here IS about weather. Period.
On the other hand, thank you for the 2 links. There’s nothing “unfortunate” about NATO and the DOD being more worried about military implications. That’s their job, not weather, and it would take an even higher priority than weather concerns in times of security crises or threats of terrorist aircraft attacks.
I haven’t had a chance to finish reading the technical paper in the first link, but I found some of the findings quite worrisome on issues of air defense and air traffic control.
The issue is not well known in the public (nor by me) but it is apparently known in military and air traffic radar circles relevant to their respective radars. The paper had a co-author named Freeman Dyson, who is a world-class theoretical physicist from the Princeton Institute for Advanced Studies, so the authors are well-qualified to grasp the issues. On the other hand, their position that these issues should prod the U.S. into replacing its aging ATC radars has been likely taken out of the picture in light of the economic crisis.
Since no technical fix is near, construction of these wind farm turbines too close to vital radars presents a hazard to the public safety which needs more attention. It’s possible we need to place more constraints on where this clean energy generation technology can be deployed. In light of our need to reduce our dependence on imported oil, that’s a tough nut to crack unless the government is more forthright with the public on these issues.
Don as far as our area goes the only practical place for the windmills in on the ridge tops. There has been alot of discussion down here in the southern tier about installing more of them. This will only add to the clutter on the radar we see today. I’m not sure of the total number but i have heard in the range of 1 to 2 hundred more windmills down here. I also believe the time frame for the installation is being pushed back because of the economy.
Don Paul Says:
March 1st, 2009 at 11:47 pm
Make that “arctic,” not artic. I’m catching Ayuud’s Spelling Fever!
LOL Don
Don
is winter over for buffalo? we havent received significant snow since middle janaury
Don, National security is of the ut-most importance. If these wind farms are going to compromise that, then I say hold off on clean wind energy until we can “afford” new radar technology. Boy, I was pro wind energy until more light was shed on this subject. I didn’t agree with some of the other reasons like birds being killed, unsightly, or noisy. But messing with weather radar and aircraft radar is enough to me to put a hault on any more wind farms being built. After all, there is still plenty of fossil fuels to get us by until we can figure this mess out.
Mike and Sled Hill,
The calculations for radar line of sight paths can be done easily, so that wind turbine farms can still be placed in many locations with no impact on radars. The questions raised here pertain to the proximity of these towers to the radars. In other words, there would be no reason to place a moratorium on the continued development of the clean energy technology everywhere. But I believe there must be a mandatory impact statement concerning radars before any construction is begun on new turbine farms. It appears that NOAA and DOD were notified on some developments and not notified on others. That has to stop. There needs to be a federal guideline with statutory authority to prevent deployment where such interference will occur. My fear is in the rush to move toward energy independence, these concerns may get short shrift in congress and regulatory agencies. However, I am glad to know these issues have been well known and proven from past published papers.
I’m no real estate or land use authority, but it would seem there’s plenty of undeveloped land to go around which would allow construction of wind towers safely distant and beneath radar transmissions.
Ayuud,
Winter’s taking a holiday, but it’s very seldom over for Buffalo in the month of March.
Don, Your last post makes me feel a little better. There certainly seems like there would be enough land far enough away from radar to construct wind farms. So as I try to understand from your last post, the farther away from the radar you get, there is more room under the radar to fit windmills?
Isn’t the wind farm in Wyoming County a good 40-50 miles away? How far would it have to be?
The wind turbine discussion is very interesting and worriesome.
I agree with Don, in the rush to go ‘green’ we may overlook pertinent issues such as radar, defence etc etc.
In Ontario, there are a number of wind turbines in high elevation rural areas, and a number near our summer place along the eastern shore of Lake Huron.
In fact, the provincial government has introduced a green energy bill whereby NIMBYS(NOT IN MY BACKYARD) will not qualify as a legitimate reason to protest against a wind turbine. The government will listen to ‘legitimate’ concerns. I haven’t heard concerns about radar/wind turbines from Environment Canada. Will have to search the web to see if I have missed anything on that.
Was that bright star by the moon last night that slowly moved around the planit Saturn?-Adam from Hamburg.
Sled Hill: I’m not certain of the distance, but I believe it’s closer than 40-50 miles in a straight line. I don’t have an answer to your question on minimum distance. It depends partly on the elevation of the radar site, as well as the size and elevation of the wind farm, the size of its blades, the width of the tower, the number of towers, the angle of exposure of the blades, etc. The precise calculation requires computation of the beam width at given distances, and the elevation of each of the multiple scans undertaken by the WSR 88-D (in terms of weather, not military or ATC), to name some of the considerations.
As complex as this sounds, engineers can make these calculations with great accuracy.
Thanks Don.
Adam,
The brightest object in the sky after the moon last night (as is generally the case) is the planet Venus. It’s not orbiting anything other than our sun, so I’m not sure what you thought you were looking at. Venus has no moon.
“I sent an email (as a private citizen/private sector met) to the Inspector General of the DOE to inquire if they’re aware of this growing problem”
it seems don paul is anti-wind spooking the locals again…….
Your reading comprehension, applejack, is just plain lousy.
Reread my posts and that of z. We’re not anti-wind generation. It’s the proximity of the towers, not the existence of the towers. Or, if you don’t want to believe us, read the links instead of posting inaccurate nonsense.
What day in march 2008 was the last accumulative snowfall? Im trying to judge when to think we may be in the clear……
The NCEP 500 mb ensembles has been consistently showing a colder pattern toward mid-March (which I suggested as a possibility last week in the previous thread).
At this early point, it’s looking like a cold St Patty’s Day parade….
How about that clear sky last night? I was able to see the half moon, Venus, Ursa Major, and Orion at the same time for the first time since last fall! I can imagine how the sky looked away from the light pollution in the metro area.
If the operational GFS were worth much at 264 hours (it might have had some worth if several runs showed a similar trend), there’d be more hope for a milder St. Patty’s day parade, since the 12z run is at odds with the above mentioned NCEP 500mb ensemble. The ensemble shows a colder pattern setting in later next week and persisting, where the GFS shows a shot of colder air Wed-Thur exiting the region by the weekend. That might work out. But at this time range, one has to give much more weight to the ensemble, which has been fairly consistent in that time frame for a few days.
Most Beautiful and Perfect picture of ice on Lake Erie I have personally ever seen…
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/ice0809/LkErieIce0304.jpg
That’s about as good a shot as I’ve seen in my questionable memory….
NEW THREAD IS NOW UP.
Don-i’ve been to Western NY before and the last time i’ve been through there was like 15 years ago. My parents took me to Niagara Falls and after that we went into the New York side. We then drove through Buffalo to find I-90 to Syracuse, headed north on I-81 back into Canada at the St Lawrence River to visit some relatives in Eastern Ontario, like Kingston, Ottawa, etc. I looked on the internet about Buffalo and it looks like a pretty decent city. Sudbury is a fairly good-sized city with the population of over 157,000 (2006). The only weather webcam in Sudbury i’ve found is owned by a local christian music radio station and you’re most likely to see a lot of snow! http://www.cjtk.com/citycams2.asp?dCamLoc=Sud
Google Map from Sudbury to Buffalo:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&source=s_d&saddr=Buffalo,+NY&daddr=Greater+Sudbury&hl=en&geocode=&mra=ls&sll=45.383019,-80.112305&sspn=7.298844,14.0625&ie=UTF8&ll=44.71896,-79.952265&spn=7.3843,14.0625&t=h&z=6
Google Map of Sudbury:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&source=s_d&saddr=Greater+Sudbury&daddr=Greater+Sudbury&hl=en&geocode=&mra=ls&sll=44.71896,-79.952265&sspn=7.3843,14.0625&ie=UTF8&ll=46.511625,-81.063995&spn=0.447033,0.878906&t=h&z=10
If you want to see what our weather forecast is like, you can visit: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/caon0664
Looks like we may have some rain on the way which will make things messy! Our snow is usually all melted by mid to late April, sometimes early May depending on weather patterns from year to year.
Hello to everyone at WIVB and WNY! I remember cable companies in some areas in Northern Ontario, including Sudbury used to carry WIVB (CBS) many years ago.
On a final note:
Don’t forget to Spring your clocks ahead to 1 hour on Sunday March 8, 2009!
Hey Don, I don’t see the new thread up yet.
don, you ever realize if you became pope you’d be “pope don paul?”
Zoinks! There are already enough whackos out there who think he can actually control the weather.
“Well gee, you’re the Pope and all, why can’t you just make the rain hold off for my daughter’s wedding?”
“I’ve been praying for a snow day, why aren’t you listening?”
NEW THREAD, EASIER TO FIND, IS NOW UP AS OF 6:45PM THURSDAY.