Another Snowmaker enroute; Pattern Change in the Distance
February 20th, 2009 at 12:54 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
The snow showers and blowing snow will slowly subside Friday night, with the worst conditions in the afternoon north of Buffalo, especially closer to L Ontario. Saturday will be more tranquil and somewhat milder in advance of a low pressure system which will track to ern lower Michigan and into Ontario to our north. A trajectory such as that one typically brings enough warm air to change snow to mixed precip or rain, but this time all models keep us just cold enough to keep the precip Saturday evening as all snow. It still looks like a 2-4″ snowfall, mainly Saturday evening (beginning as light snow late in the afternoon). Snow showers will accompany a fresh batch of arctic air Sunday, with a strengthening cold wind–into Monday. The warmup looks to get going in earnest on Wednesday. As I posted earlier, even this zonal flow can be interrupted by vigorous short waves at mid levels, and that looks possible for next Friday.
Don…flying home tomorrow night…any issues on the horizon? Too bad we missed the warm week…however, I think Florida was still warmer! Thanks for the info…still love the blog, especially now that it is back to a weather blog!
No issues, Spencer.
No major changes in the latest runs. There are very early hints of a mid-March Greenland block/-NAO and a tendency toward a wrn ridge/+PNA starting to develop, but that’s a pretty flimsy clue this far out.
O Winter! bar thine adamantine doors:
The north is thine; there hast thou built thy dark
Deep-founded habitation. Shake not thy roofs,
Nor bend thy pillars with thine iron car.’
He hears me not, but o’er the yawning deep
Rides heavy; his storms are unchain’d, sheathd
In ribbd steel; I dare not lift mine eyes,
For he hath rear’d his sceptre o’er the world.
Lo! now the direful monster, whose 1000 skin clings
To his strong bones, strides o’er the groaning rocks:
He withers all in silence, and in his hand
Unclothes the earth, and freezes up frail life.
He takes his seat upon the cliffs,–the mariner
Cries in vain. Poor little wretch, that deal’st
With storms!–till heaven smiles, and the monster
Is driv’n yelling to his caves beneath mount Hecla.
-William Blake (1757-1827)
Was that a little too dramatic? What I mean is its blowing here and I am having a little bit of a hard time coping with the weather at this time and having watched Don’s forcast am hunkering down again.
WIND ADVISORY remainds posted until 11am Friday for So. Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties. This advisory mainly applies to higher elevations, like the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, the hills of Wyoming county, and also the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds may gust as high as 55mph. Use caution while traveling.
Gimmer? If you may, do awy with the “old English” next time…My head hurts trying to decipher thine verbage!
Looks like we had a fropa just after 11:20 am (wind shifted to NW, sudden temperature drop, clearing to the west).
Could the temp. drop be from the rain. The Springville weathernet site is still registering 53 degrees as of 11:50. Unless it is one slow moving front!!
I hope this isn’t a dumb question, but I was just looking at the time lapse weather radar on your web site, and there are these scattered small gray circles embedded within the green/yellow. There were like 6 or 7 of them popping up, and then they disappeared at the end of the time lapse.
What do those represent, or is there just a glitch causing that?
I’m in north Toronto so the front (if that’s what it was) is still west of YBUF.
Hi Scott, whose website are you referring to?
The one here on wivb.com…I just did a refresh as I was posting this reply and they’re still there.
It’s a very good question. My guess is that there is an algorithm in the software that detects and marks a specific type of return. Let us know if you can get more info on this, perhaps one of the WIVB mets can comment.
Scott,
I think Howie is right. The gray circles are not on the base data being provided by the NWS. So, the company that provides the NWS radar data to WIVB must have some algorithm that is identifying these areas for one reason or another.
But, as for real meteorological info, you can clearly see southwest to northeast oriented cold front moving southeastward across Erie County between roughly 1230PM to 130PM. It is a thin fine of slightly enhanced echoes (darker green on the WIVB display) embedded in the lighter green.
z
Ah, now the temps are dropping around these parts.
The showers have dropped off some and its cooling now here in Stedman. It’s not freezing yet though.
thinksnow08, a little poetry is good for the soul. That was a weather poem. You can certainly scroll past it if it offends, thee, LOL!
Still getting reports of plenty of snow on the slopes. Not fresh powder by any means, but plenty of skiing to be had!
All the neighbours know I am a nutcase but now I am certified! Actually, I just came in from taking pictures of the moon and venus about 3 degrees apart. What a beautiful sight; if you have a clear view to the west (preferably thru a window ’cause I don’t want to send you outside) and you are reading this before 9pm, be sure to take a look. Boy, it’s cold out there!
Not so for the snowmobile trails don. The last 2 days have taken a toll. Trails are closed and flooded in alot of spots. As an added note i was riding yesterday in the town of Franklinville and on a northeast facing slope the snow was still over my knees in the woods. A good 2ft i would say. I would venture to say alot of that melted today though.
WIND TURBINE FARMS: Potentially a bigger problem for Weather Radar than I’d realized–
Finally had a chance to finish one of the articles posted by z on February 25th at 12:04m. Some of you heard or saw me point out some relatively newer ground clutter problems in Wyoming County due to largescale wind turbine deployment. These tall structures with spinning blades create both highly reflective fixed targets which cannot currently be eliminated by software in the NWS WSR 88-D Doppler radar (or any other local radar), as well as spurious indications of precipitation in the scattering and reflection of radar energy cause by the moving portion of the target–the spinning blades. The University of Oklahoma Atmospheric Radar Research Ctr is working on developing algorithms and filters which may eventually be able to deal with these false echoes, but NOAA says it will be several years before any fix can be applied to the nation’s 88-D radar network. If you look at 88-D reflectivity or velocity data, the clutter in Wyoming County has grown quite substantial (mainly in the western half of the county). This clutter can be best detected by looping the radar display. These false echoes can, if not treated properly, cause false precipitation accumulations in the 88-D’s database, and can–to some extent–interfere with the detection of precipitation and velocity data near and just past these targets. That’s not a good thing, meteorologically.
In other parts of the country, wind turbines in closer proximity to the NWS 88-D have caused potentially serious problems. In one cited and illustrated case, the Dodge City NWS radar velocity algorithms put out a false tornado vortex signature with a closer-in wind turbine farm.
Since wind turbine farms are going to be increasing rapidly, particularly with the President’s energy initiatives, the location of these farms may become a greater threat to the proper operation and detection capabilities of the nation’s (NWS) Doppler network. In fact, close-in turbines can reflect so much energy back to the 88-D’s receiver that the receiver can be damaged.
Unfortunately, since most of these turbines are going up on privately held lands, there are currently no legal requirements which would take into consideration problems caused by too close a proximity to the nation’s first line of defense in storm and severe storm detection and warning.
Please don’t interpret this post as an “anti-wind energy” editorial. I’m pointing out that little consideration has been given thus far to the location of these clean energy generators in terms of weather radar interference and degradation. I can only hope this issue is made known to more wind turbine farm developers, and that there is better communication between NOAA, state and local governments, zoning boards, etc. It’s clear that where possible, these turbines should NOT be located too close to NWS weather radars, at least not while we lack the technology to mitigate their effects on weather radars.
so don all the storms are missing us this week
I love non-sequitors! First there’s mine, then there’s his.
Does anyone know the strongest wind gust ever recorded in Buffalo?
Light lake effect snow showers/flurries are paying a visit to WNY this Saturday morning. Only minor accumulation is expected, but the bigger story is the sharply cold air that has arrived. Temps this morning are nearly 40 degrees colder compared to this time yesterday. Certainly, a shock to the system! We’re back into Winter’s Cold
It’s pretty funny that even though the bliss/wethersfield and sheldon windparks have been erected for over a year-now that they are now causing a problem for the radar?????
applejack,
I don’t recall/cannot find the complete timeline for the Eagle wind farm, but the Sheldon farm was built during the summer of 2008 and did not become operational until the late summer/fall. Wind farms become a problem when they become operational, and both locations have been a problem throughout the late summer/fall.
Meteorologists are trained to interpret radar signatures and it’s pretty easy to ignore stationary radar “clutter” from a few locations, but it is still a problem when a storm passes over these locations. If you were to add 10, 20, or more wind farms, you’d make it much more difficult for meteorologists to separate the man made clutter from real meteorological signals.
Meanwhile, automated algorithms have a very difficult time with these new manmade signals. An untrained radar user would/will have a hard time with false radar echoes, some of which could be interpreted as a tornadic signature.
NWS and researchers are working on a means for removing wind turbine clutter. But, research takes time, and it will be a while (years) for such research gets into an operational radar.
I, like Don, don’t want to confuse this issue with pro vs anti alternative energy, but it is an issue with storm detection.
z
Don or Z. Are the residents around theses wind farms in any danger of not being warned of severe weather when it approaches? Can you take into consideration these radar echos and accuratley say there is or is not a tornado in the immediate area? Lucky for us tonados are not all that common in our area. Although there was one a few years back that hit south Warasw just over the hill from the Bliss wind farm.
Mike,
The answer to you question really depends on a large number of factors. If the event was ongoing, it wouldn’t be too much of a problem except for the fact that meteorologists wouldn’t be able to determine if the storm was intensifying or weakening. However, if the storm were developing right over a wind farm, it *could* delay a warning for a few/several minutes and reduce lead time.
You’ve sort of hit the nail on the head with the worst case scenario.
z
Stretch,
WIVB/NWS can verify this as I don’t have a complete climate record in front of me, but I think it was 91mph on Jan 14, 1950.
z
Stretch:
http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/webclimo/JAN14.htm
Thanks for the response Z. Those windfarms are close to the area where thunderstorms develop. By this i mean the area “out of the Lake Erie shadow effect”. I have lived in Franklinville for 32 years and Arcade for 6 years. Often times i have seen storms form over our area or just to the east due to the lakes influence.