Several Inches of Snow enroute; Wed AM Commute Looks Slow
January 26th, 2009 at 3:06 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
What’s known as an inverted trough–an extension of low pressure toward the north from a center of low pressure passing well to our south–should be sufficient to get us enough snow to slow the Wed AM commute. This synoptic snowfall may range up to 3-6″ (PRELIMINARY estimate) by Wed midday, with the steadier snow arriving late Tuesday night. As MB pointed out Sunday night, the best chance for the heaviest amounts will be closer to the PA line, especilly well to the SE–Allegany, Potter & McKean Cos. The low’s circulation will cause temps to rise toward Wed AM, but a fresh surge of modified arctic air will be back later in the week. On the whole, while there’ll be some limited moderation in the next few days, temps will continue to run mainly below normal this week.
Still sounds like too much certainty on precip type and placement at this stage.
As I posted long ago, we’ve spent many hours in lectures at my AMS conferences on the topic of “Communicating Uncertainty to the Public.” Uncertainty is not what the public wants, but it is the reality of operational meteorology, and to create unreal expectations by NOT communicating the uncertainty is to do the public a real disservice.
Hay Don thanks for letting me squeeze in a little Luge stuff in at the end of this thread. The town of OP really helped me out alot. I’m going to have snow til May or June!! The front loader is actually less than half the height of the luge. In the pic below the tractor was much closer to me. The hill is in the background. Really gives you perspective as to the size of the Luge. Here is the pic one more time. Any comments please don’t put them on the next thread. Just put them below on this one. Thanks again Don.
http://api.photoshop.com/home_b368ef06a99849c49366da4f8718d322/adobe-px-assets/4e7f15b937e2440cb1ac17c79b507431
Don,
I agree, If I have learned 1 thing about weather is not to jump to the first thing you hear because it is on e run or one ensemble and will likely change several times, even right up to the day of the storm…
Also I am going to try to get the news here on superbowl Sunday. We are having an outside Superbowl/Sledding party. We are going to project the game in HD on the garage door, tailgate, campfires, tikis, music, and of course sledding. It’s going to be one of a kind. Whenever the news finally gets here I will let you all know.
Don,
New thread soon?
Sled Hill that is awsome!!! When is WIVB going to cover your hill on the news?
Don.. It seems every major weather event begins on a tue/wednesday, why is that? Do major weather events like midweek? Hmmm interesting. It seems so. I was reading on a Canadian weather website that next weeks storm has the potential to break centurys old records as far as winds and snowfall accum. Does this mean the low pressure is going to be the lowest we’ve seen in many years as well?
Calm down, Little Igloo. Just think back a few weeks. A number of our major events were on the weekend. So much for that theory.
thinksnow, it’s crunch time. New thread will have to wait until evening.
Midweek is when last one hit us, and the one before.
Im calm now. I think we all need some warm sunshine.
Forget it, Little Igloo. Bad hypothesis.
Don you should read “The coming global superstorm” by Art Bell. Maybe this coming storm is what he has been predicting.
I think I know the identity of”Z”.He is absolutely brilliant, and of course I will not reveal my speculation on this blog.His contributions are tremendous.
That book was reviewed by a meteorology professor who entitled his column, “The Coming Global Stupidstorm.” I’ve seen it. The prof is spot on.
For non science fiction, read the Buffalo NWS Long Range discussion on their site right now. That’ll have to hold you until this evening.
The latest track for the low takes it through S. Georgia and almost up the coast into N. Jersey just inland. If that happens we will still be in the bullseye for snow will we not? What track would give us rain/snow mix? Wouldnt it have to track much much further west to put us in the rain/sleet area?
HAHA Don…. I agree with you on that one but it was a good read for AB fans. Don I’m still waiting for you to write your own weather book, if you havn’t allready. I’d buy it for sure.
Even NWS is starting to sense something very potent brewing.
“Through the interior however, a heavy to perhaps crippling snowfall is possible. Ohio, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York could get the worst of the snowstorm with accumulations of 12 inches or more.”
John Kocet accuweather
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
Don and fellow bloggers, this is the kind of storm that is extreemly rare, and meteorologists are salivating everywhere!!
“Residents all across the East should continue to check back with AccuWeather.com as the exact track of the storm becomes clearer.”
And don’t forget to click on our advertising all week as we forecast your impending crippling death.
What’s the matter Thinksnow, cant you put up with a couple measly posts about my winter project? sheesh Don said he would start another thread soon. I promise I won’t post anything about my Luge there OK. The only post will be to let fellow bloggers who are interested know when it will be on the news.
Thanks Little Igloo and I don’t know yet. When I do I’ll let everyone know.
LOL very funny Ace!!
Little Igloo, Please–this is not an AccuWx blog. They have their own. I’ve already explained, with some help from Z, the great uncertainty still attached to this storm’s path. I know many of our bloggers can see through some of this hype, but I don’t want the Buffalo Weather Blog to become Hype Central, courtesty of TWC or Accuwx. So pls cut back on posting their jazz here. I’m not saying “not ever.” But enough already for now, okay?
Anyone who knows anything about Art Bell knows to take anything he writes with a bag of salt. Mr. Z – most of us don’t know who you are, but thanks for posting the links and insight regarding models. Very helpful for morons like me!
My thoughts/sentiments regarding the impending superduper storm of the Millenium are:
1) Hope it misses us completely
2) Weather is what it is and there is not a darn thing you can do!
3) Be careful of what you wish for!
Sledhill – Impressive with the Orchard Park Snow Plow in front of the luge – just think I was on top, looking down! I predict that you will have snow in July. I won’t comment on Don’s new thread, check the fun thread as I will go there to post.
Ok Don, just very excited about the potential for a rare storm event, please keep us posted. 950 MB potential?? What does that mean?
Sled Hill, what happened to the fun blog?
Don could you make another one when time permits?
Sled Hill you have to see the video, after this Sat I will have my fiber optic high speed internet so I’ll post the video I took of the monster luge!
god. little igloo your wishcasting may scare the storm that is coming next week
Don and Z I have a question, Is next weeks storm originating in the gulf as a low and will it draw most of its moisture from the gulf region or the Atlantic ocean?
FYI all—Art Bell wears tin foil hats so I agree with you people who think he’s a spoon bender. Just thought his book was an interesting read is all. As far as hype goes with next weeks storm, boy it sure is starting to blow up on the blogs, but I will not feed the fire on this one, adfterall this Buffalo weather blog has the best professionals and definately the best bloggers on it compared to Accuwx and the others.
Thank you Z for you time and effort in explaining about the various weather models and their uncertainties. I found it very illuminating.
Speaking of tin foil hats, where in heck did you get the idea of a 950mb potential? That would be less than 28.03″….don’t think so, kiddo.
Here Don, I was wrong, it was 970 not 950………… “The 18z DGEX was especially impressive with a 970mb passing through eastern PA, unprecedented cyclogenesis.” courtest of Weather Underground
I am going to thank Don and all other media outlets for this advance warning. Last week MB brought up that the storm yesterday was on an outlier model and it came to pass. I think it is a given that this storm will happen it is just a matter of who gets their butts kicked and how bad. At least this way with advanced warning people can prepare and be ready for something which could be very serious. We all know what happened in October 2006 and no one really saw it coming except the local WFO and Channel 4. While this wont be as damaging (most likely) it could be more dangerous with white outs etc. In the same thread Don could the B word be used if the models come to pass?
4 days out and I’m alrady getting nervous. Don’t want to get stranded somewhere or freeze in my vehicle like so many did during the Blizzard of ‘77.Betcha the supermarkets will be mobbed this weekend, people stocking up. I’m glad I have some sick time at work to use if need be.
Answers to some of the earlier question: Peter, welcome to the blog. Environment Canada certainly has an excellent staff, though my understanding is they’ve been stretched very thin by the national budget. As for Canadian media, I don’t get a chance to watch it much, so I can’t make an informed comment. I know when I moved here in 1984, virtually no one on Toronto tv had a scientific background…don’t know how things stand now. As for models, except for our private sector models (such as Ch 4’s Super Microcast), we do all have access to the same models. The Canadian GEM is in that mix, though I can’t say that it frequently is the “model of choice” here. The interpretation of models and the many ensemble runs is open to experience, academic depth, and individual analysis.
Ayuud, the European model isn’t free because the Forecast Centre in England tries to recoup some of its costs by charging subscription fees which, theoretically, might lessen the burden on European taxpayers. Of all the major government weather services, only the United States has a policy of putting nearly everything out there for free access. In past international conferences, the US tried to encourage other governments to follow our lead, but that hasn’t happened.
NEW THREAD IS UP.
Don I know this is buffalo and all but, why do we keep getting so much snow? no one shovels sidewalks and It is hard for my children to get to school safely…I know ….it will be like this till May like always lol!
Hey i do snowblowing for many people in Kenmore, Tonawandas, and Buffalo. I was wondering if you guys can tell me approximate how much snow we are suppose to get and when. I heard that it could be a major storm if it comes through the right track and I want to be ready for it. Thanks and everyone stay safe!!!