Comments on: Arctic Blast still enroute, but in stages.

By: Matt from OP

Matt from OP — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 20:03:06 +0000

The may answer your question, courtesy the NWS:

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BATCH OF SNOW WAS FROM NEAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF GRAND ISLAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DUNKIRK. THIS SNOW WILL
REACH THE VICINITIES OF TONOWANDA…DERBY…AND ARKWRIGHT BETWEEN
310 PM AND 340 PM. LATER IT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL REACH
WILLIAMSVILLE…WEST SENECA AND COLLINS BETWEEN 330 PM AND 500 PM.

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:58:42 +0000

edenj; Owing to its lower elevation, I don’t think Eden was ever in line to get quite that much snow–at least not in my judgment.

NEW THREAD IS UP–PLEASE MOVE ON TO THE NEW ONE.

By: Josh Budde

Josh Budde — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:57:25 +0000

Same here in Albion, Devin – Wind Chill is sitting between -9 and -13 degrees.

By: Devin

Devin — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:55:37 +0000

My personal weather station here in Amherst is sitting at 3.5 degrees.

By: Don Paul

Don Paul — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:30:03 +0000

storm watcher; My forecast for the wind chill this morning from last night was not really any different from that of the NWS in a material way. Last night, the wind speeds in the late evening were well in line with modeled winds, so I had no reason to expect such light winds in the AM (I’d predicted a range of 7-14 mph). However, the error you pointed out was really of minor proportions. The current 7pm observation at the NWS is 15 mph, which is in line with today’s modeled winds and the pattern upwind. There can be breaks in the overcast, and there will be some cooling, but true radiational cooling except in sheltered valleys is difficult to attain with the strength of the boundary layer flow. A Warning is theoretically possible, but right now I expect the winds to stay in Advisory criteria. It’s a minor shading of difference, and one I’m not going to spend time agonizing over. Either way, it will be Bitter Cold in the morning.

By: edenj

edenj — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:12:40 +0000

hey don. I know your busy but I was just wondering to the best of your knowledge, if Eden was still in store for a foot of snow or more between now and saturday morning. Thanks for all the great work you do!

By: Jer Jer

Jer Jer — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:52:14 +0000

Don,

I was being a wiseGUY because the question was really dumb and everyone with half a brain knows there is no way to put a total on it.

By: storm watcher

storm watcher — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:35:50 +0000

Don….is there any chance winds could increase more and allow for an elevation of the wind chill advisory back to a warning?….also, will skies over metro buffalo possibly clear tonight and allow for radiational cooling which would lower surface temperatures and possibly reduce the wind chill as well?…only reason I’m asking is that the forecast was incorrect this morning as far as severity of wind and wind chill (really no wind at all at 7 am)and was just wondering if a similar miscalculation in the opposite direction is possible tomorrow morning?….not critical of you, more so the NWS, which seems to have done a lot of flip flopping throughout this cold spell event…thanks…

By: southtowner

southtowner — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:24:08 +0000

Here in north collins its starting to come down, didnt really notice it till my drive home from buffalo till i got to eden. blowing around and coming down at a steady rate so far.

By: LakewoodSnow

LakewoodSnow — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:23:03 +0000

Thanks Don! Even if I don’t get snow, it’s still just amazing to see this evolve and play out. Of course the snow does make it better, though .