Arctic Blast still enroute, but in stages.
A little burst of synoptic snow–probably accompanied by Gusty Winds and Blowing Snow–will mark stage 1 of the arctic incursion Tuesday afternoon. Winds will quickly veer around to NWly Tue night. Some synoptic snow will push into WNY Wed PM into early Thursday, with a few inches general accumulation likely, and the coldest air will follow on the heels of this storm. Tuesday’s temps will plunge from the low 30s AM back to the teens by early evening, and down to the single numbers by Wed AM. There are still no signs of any especially significant lake snow in the metro area. A cold SW flow on Saturday looks to be rather dry air, with no disturbance/trough aloft to enhance lift, so potential at that time seems quite limited. The cold blast for later in the week may require issuances of a Wind Chill Advisory.
The may answer your question, courtesy the NWS:
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BATCH OF SNOW WAS FROM NEAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF GRAND ISLAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DUNKIRK. THIS SNOW WILL
REACH THE VICINITIES OF TONOWANDA…DERBY…AND ARKWRIGHT BETWEEN
310 PM AND 340 PM. LATER IT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL REACH
WILLIAMSVILLE…WEST SENECA AND COLLINS BETWEEN 330 PM AND 500 PM.