Weekend snow no big deal for most; wintry blast next week
January 9th, 2009 at 2:33 pm by Don Paul under Weather Watch 4
As previously forecasted, the area of low pressure will be going by too far to the south Saturday and Saturday night to deliver heavy snow to WNY. Amounts on the Niag Frontier will be light, with an additional 1-2″ possible Saturday night. Some moderate snow will fall across the srn tier and nrn PA. By late Sunday night, the flow ahead of a weak short wave disturbance will back, but there are some signs the backing may take the wind direction all the way to SSW (about 220 degrees) rather than the favorable 240-255 degree range. That would take limited lake snow well north, but the short fetch over the lake would lessen the potential. Some synoptic snow (lt to moderate) is possible both Tue and Wed, with the full arctic blast being delivered behind the Wed system by Thur-Fri. It’s very far out in time, but there are hints of a more favorable SW fetch by next Friday.
I’m not an oceanographer or NOAA specialist nor topographer or meteorologist, but that thing looks WIDE OPEN! Can’t see in just two days time that it will have thick enough ice cover to cut back on alot of lake effect, but then again, I’m not a professional, just my opinion….
If I remember the closing criteria correctly from a couple of years ago it was -20 or below winchill. Does anyone remember otheriwse?
Based on all information we have up to now is this winter considered a normal one as relates to temperaturs , snowfall ( lake and normal ) , lakes not froze yet.
Also how often does Buffalo area get a NON lake based snowstorm in Late January or Feb. ?
Scary to think Spring is coming soon .. =]
As related to Schools:
Last time I can think of was about 2 years ago , Hamburg schools closed for 5 degrees , windy and snow , I would think anything under 0 is not safe and is not worth risking ONE kid from getting hurt..
You have to remember the amount of days off already this year , my kids have had 3 so far , also how many kids walk to school in your area and how far they walk.
I have to agree Thinksnow :
This one says it all: I like the big ice chunks , that appear to have broken off..
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=e&page=1&template=sub&image=t1.09011.1653.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg
Hamburg–
Check the NWS climate data on how we stand thus far. And, no, spring is not coming soon.
What IS it with some of you people? Your emotional highs and lows based on weather are a little odd. I get them myself at times, but some of you folks need to find your excitement elsewhere, in my opinion. As for your 2nd question about “how often?”, the answer is Quite Often.
Sheesh!
Jan 20th is the meteorological mid-point of winter, if I’m not mistaken. It is around this point, historically when the lake usually freezes over enough to squelch most of the LES, however with sublimation (solid state –> water vapor) there is still LES potential for a bit longer throughout the season. So we are a little less than half-way through with winter with plenty of snow potential ahead of us so far.
Also, it takes little time/energy (comparatively) for a 32 degree body of water to form a frozen surface, so we’re at the point where it is quite possible for the lake to be “wide open” today and frozen over a few days later, especially with the arctic air-mass that is filtering its way across the lake this week.
Don, I think the lack of sunlight really gets to people these days. Its a bit of this Cabin fever that really starts to take hold about this time of year. On one hand there are folks claiming winter is “lame” in terms of lack of snowfall and others that think spring is just about here, ready for those warm temps already.
May I chime in?? Anyway about weather… This arctic blast is going to be impressive all the way around don’t you think Don? The position of the lows seems on the right track to draw a lot of gulf moisture to mix with the super chilled arctic air to increase snow potential.
Sublimation doesn’t play a major role in lake snow, but the rest of your post is essentially spot on, sabresfan.
Hamburg didn’t like being talked to like “a ten year old”, but his post came across as very childish–to me, at least, as well as inaccurate.
Don answer me this please , what was wrong with this post and why was it childesh:
“Hamburgsnowman Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Based on all information we have up to now is this winter considered a normal one as relates to temperaturs , snowfall ( lake and normal ) , lakes not froze yet.
Also how often does Buffalo area get a NON lake based snowstorm in Late January or Feb. ?
Scary to think Spring is coming soon .. =]”
“Usually, the whole of Lake Erie would be ice-covered during the second week of February,” Szorc said. A frozen lake does not necessarily mean lake-effect snow has ended, said Dan Leins, a National Weather Service meteorologist. “Lake-effect snow is still going to be a possibility even though the lake is frozen over, though it severely limits the intensity and the strength of it,” he said.
A. Spring is not coming soon. Not by any stretch of the imagination. That’s like saying Autumn is coming soon on July 12th.
B. This winter is not normal as far as snowfall is concerned.
C. The implication in your question about late Jan or Feb is that we seldom get a non-lake based snowstorm at those times, when very nearly the opposite is true.
It came across as a post from someone who is in a non-factually based funk over an imagined dull winter. To me, that’s childish. If that term offends you, maybe I should have used the term silly. That may be a better fit.
Lake effect schlake effect… the blizzard of 77 wasn’t lake effect remember?
FYI spring is 9 weeks out.(March 20th) By then we will have experienced major snow, thunderstorms, possibly record cold, record warmth, and damaging winds. That is a close guarantee.
wed – sat Here’s a suggestion… Let’s do a 4 degree guarantee on the forecast lows for the bloggers, just for fun…Don?
Maybe we’ll see how Devin feels about that for his site. I can see 4 degree entries really clogging this blog.
The Wed PM/early Thur snow–even with favorable ratios–doesn’t look very impressive right now, but it will definitely coat things over with at least a couple of inches–maybe a few more. Wednesday’s low and short wave will retard the core of the coldest air until later in the week.
Still no signs of major lake snow near the metro area. Tomorrow’s little burst of synoptic snow in the PM may be interesting to watch, because some gusty winds are probably going to cause some Blowing Snow, as temps start to do an afternoon plunge.
As posted yesterday, the absolute coldest-of-the-cold won’t stick around that long, with a little more Pacific influence getting back into the flow. I should remind you that this is hardly a good time for extreme cold, with the economy as it is, and the enormous extra load on energy consumption that causes. Still a parade of clipper-type systems will continue to bring us shots of fairly cold weather even after this outbreak is over.
Little igloo,
What does that even mean? NOBODY even questioned the Blizzard of 77, and no it was not lake effect, rather a low pressure system with some synoptic snow and very strong winds that blew 1000’s of square miles of already fallen snow built up on lake erie…Wow, the last 30 minutes has spiraled out of control with some of these posts….
Thanks Don
Right on Don, with the economy in the dumps, a lot of folks cannot afford the extra heating costs. Hopefully we will check in on the elderly and sick to make sure their heat etc. is working during the coldest of the cold. I know we will be trying to heat fewer rooms and less space during this cold. Wear layers!
Hey Don, New thread coming soon?
Don, a few yrs back(maybe more than a few)there was a former bar on delaware near virginia in buffalo– it later became a parking lot ( actors hang out) I used to play the juke box and shoot darts in there with my girlfriend at the time (April). We tried giving you a hard time once but you were indestructable even then! Im wondering if you remember at all? What was the name of that place?
The owner was such a nice guy, and I believe his wife tended the bar too.
Can’t say I remember.
If Don can explain to me how the 4 degree garuntee on my blog would work, I’ll see what I can do.
P.S.- Started the weather unit in class today. My teacher just let’s me have a free period because he already know’s I’ll ace the test…
Someone has to come within 4 degrees of the forecast low for the next day.
NEW THREAD NOW STARTED.
Don I know you basically are accurate about how the weather is goingo to affect us on a daily to weekly basis, but mostly because I am in the metro area you very rarely understand how we are going to be affected when bad weather does reach us which is normally the foolowing day because its always surrounded by the southern tier could you just tell what to expect today thru sunday for the metro area only please.